| 1. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the global primary extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources using the COBALT model.
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable
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| 2. |
- Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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From waste to resource : A systems dynamics and stakeholder analysis of phosphorus recycling from municipal wastewater in Europe
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 48, s. 741-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recycling Phosphorus (P) from urban wastewater can secure part of domestic agricultural P supply and contribute to a circular P supply chain. In this paper, we use literature review, stakeholder interviews and analysis, and systems dynamics for the capital cities of Stockholm and Budapest as case studies. We find that political support is a prerequisite for developing the P recycling sector, and policy makers are the most influential stakeholders. P criticality is the main driver for political support. P externalities from mining to sludge disposal should be considered when evaluating P criticality and recycling profitability. We conclude with policy recommendations for the development of the P recycling sector, arguing for legally binding P recycling targets and prioritization of the safest technological solutions available. Our analysis identifies three policy action indicators and five policy interventions in the recycling system.
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| 3. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
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Substitution of metals in times of potential supply limitations: What are the mitigation options and limitations?
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major argument among economists when putting considerations of resource scarcity aside. Here we investigate the potential limits to metal substitution. Present consumption, recycling and irreversible loss rates, as well as the metal balances and properties are examined. Our findings suggest that the major limitations and issues to substitution are: (1) Physical limitations in terms of metal available; it can only take place by a more abundant metal taking partly the place of a metal produced in smaller amounts; (2) Functional limitations based of differences in physical and chemical properties; and (3) By considering substitution options often more energy is needded and larger CO2 emissions occur. Substitution of metals is therefore not going to take the threat of scarcity away; it can only delay us in adapting to the level of sustainable use. The longer we wait, the more we risk squandering resources before we properly conserve our resources from becoming scarce
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| 4. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
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Time of scarcity horizons for technology metals, precious metals, base metals, superalloy metals, battery technology metals and infrastructure materials.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Accelerating the Resource Revolution - WRF 2017 Meeting Report : Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017 - Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017. - 9783906177182
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have built a system dynamics model, WORLD6, that takes into account population, energy extraction, production and need, aspects social behaviour, material and metals recycling and important links to the economy. The model is ground-truthed by comparing with actual supply per person from 1900 till 2015 and run until 2400. Primary scarcity metrics are supply per person and year and stock-in-use per person. Results show that technology metals (antimony, bismuth, selenium, indium, gallium and germanium) will all peak in production before 2100. Precious metals will peak in production earlier, or before 2050. The base metals (copper, zinc) will have a roughly stable supply from 2050 till 2300, whereas the production of lead will be approximately the same from 1960 till 2400 and that of nickel will peak before 2050. The superalloy metals (molybdenum, niobium) will have a stable supply from around 2050 till 2400, but cobalt will be stable from 2100 till 2300 and then decline. The battery metal lithium will peak in production 2010, cobalt will be stable (as stated above) and rare earth´s will rise in use, particularly after 2100. When considering service capital per person (concrete, iron, aluminium, copper) the model predicts steady rise throughout the 21st century, with stabilization in the 22nd century. Our dynamic WORLD6 modelling results give clear indications that for the most important metals that are used in modern technology and in societal infrastructure there are limits and therefore careful circular economy programmes are necessary at the level of every nation so that metals do not become the centre of future conflicts.
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| 5. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model
- 2018
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Ingår i: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2366-0120 .- 2366-0112. ; 3:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals molybdenum and rhenium were modelled using an integrated system dynamics model. The resource estimates made here resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for molybdenum. Present molybdenum resources are about 75–80 million ton and about 7 million ton has been mined to date. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) for molybdenum are about 65 million in primary resources and about 45 million ton in secondary sources, a total of about 111 million ton, and after considering technical extractability, evaluating several hundred different geological deposits, the extractable amount is about 90 million ton. For rhenium, URR is about 21,000 ton contained in mostly in molybdenum and copper, but some come from nickel, wolfram and platinum group metal ores. The model outputs show that molybdenum and rhenium are finite resources, and that they may become exhausted unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Peak production is estimated to take place in 2060 for molybdenum and rhenium, with peak in stocks-in-use around 2090. The molybdenum and rhenium recycling rates are generally low. Both market intervention mechanisms and governance incentives should be used to increase recycling. The metal extraction and ore grades were modelled with good success when tested against observed data. The model predicts a significant decline in molybdenum supply after 2100 under the present demand combined with the present regime of recycling. The supply situation for rhenium is dependent on the situation applicable for molybdenum ore availability and rhenium recycling rate.
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| 6. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves
- 2015
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Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 103:103, s. 139-154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future.
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| 7. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526. ; 140, s. 359-372
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required.
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| 8. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Defining a free market: drivers of unsustainability as illustrated with an example of shrimp farming in the mangrove forest in South East Asia
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526. ; 140:1, s. 299-311
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We apply causal loop diagrams (CLD) to picture how complex societal scenarios can be understood in terms of interdependent drivers and mechanisms between actors from the public and private sectors respectively. And we show how un-sustainable scenarios can be understood in terms of insufficient balancing feed-back in the system. We apply the methodology to picture such imbalances as funda- mental drivers behind the tragedy of the commons. And we apply it to go deeper into a specific business example in this context, a complex case of resource exploitation in Far East Asia. The CLD analyses inform a discussion on the interplay between societies on the one hand, represented by the Government and its legislature, and the private sector with its companies, consumers and market on the other. Our study confirms that unsustainability can only be understood and addressed at the systemic level, encom- passing both natural and social systems, where also the virtual and emergent systems of modern civi- lization are considered. The results show that a market economy can only be sustainable as well as really free, when embedded in a systemic and balanced interplay between the actors on the arena. The pro- vision of the market arena with well thought-through rules of the game, offered by a well-functioning democratic society, is needed. The challenge for leaders in business and society is to be able to grasp the causalities of the whole system, and let this guide and shape sustainable goals as well as leadership and management in coherence with such goals.
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| 9. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating critical extraction rates for the main metals for a sustainable society within the planetary limits
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The critical rates of extraction of some metals was explored using a methodology based on the thinking behind critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen deposition developed in Europe 1990-2010. With a long term sustainability view in mind, critical rates based on 5,000 and 10,000 years were estimated and found to widely exceed the present extraction rates. Huge advances in recycling, as well as a significant contraction of metal demand would be required to reach no exceedence of the critical rates.
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| 10. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model
- 2017
-
Ingår i: BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2366-0120 .- 2366-0112. ; 2:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global cobalt cycle in society was modelled using an integrated systems dynamics model, WORLD6, integrating several earlier system dynamics models developed by the authors. The COBALT sub-model was used to assess the long-term sufficiency of the available extractable cobalt and address the effect of different degrees of recycling on cobalt supply. The extraction of cobalt is mostly dependent on the extraction of copper, nickel and platinum group metals. The ultimately recoverable resources estimate was 32 million ton on land and 34 million ton on the ocean floors, a total of 66 million ton, significantly larger than earlier estimates. It is very uncertain how much of the cobalt, detected in ocean floor deposits, is extractable. The present use of cobalt by society is diverse and about half the total cobalt production to the market is in the form of metallic cobalt. The simulations show that cobalt extraction is predicted to reach a peak in the years 2025–2030 and that the supply will reach a peak level in 2040–2050. Three different global population scenarios were used (high, middle, low). We predict that the supply of cobalt will decline slowly with about 3–5% per year after 2050. The present use of cobalt in chemicals, colours, rechargeable batteries and super-alloys shows a low degree of recycling and the systemic losses are significant. After 2170, cobalt will have run out under business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual cobalt use in society is not sustainable. Too much cobalt is lost if only market mechanisms are expected to improve recycling, and unnecessary cobalt is wasted if no policy actions are taken. Increased recycling and better conservation will be able to improve the supply situation, but this will need active policy participation beyond what market mechanisms can do alone. To conserve cobalt for coming generations, present policies must be changed within the next few decades. The sooner policies change, the better for future generations
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| 11. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling the copper, zinc and lead mining rates and co-extraction of dependent metals, supply, price and extractable amounts using the BRONZE model
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the by-products antimony, indium, germanium, tellurium, cadmium, bismuth and selenium. The runs show that copper, zinc and lead go through peak production around 2050 and declines as the resources run out some time after 2100, and with them the metals produced as by products become unavailable.
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| 12. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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The WORLD6 Integrated System Dynamics Model: Examples of Results from Simulations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Progress Towards the Resource Revolution. - 9783952140987 ; , s. 68-76
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and energy balances. The WORLD6 model first creates value from extraction of natural resources, input of human labour, the efficiency effect of mechanization and automation, the effect of innovation and their use in manufacturing of goods and services, and the secondly does monetization through market mechanisms and debt financing. The model includes 7 different capital stocks for: (1) industrial resource extraction, (2) industrial manufacture, (3) social service capital, (4) agricultural capital for land use and food production, (5) military capital, (6) speculative capital tied up in derivatives, real estate, consumer credits, (7) criminal or illegal capital. There are 3 different debt pools; (1) general, (2) speculative and (3) pensions. These are all linked through a number of feedbacks in the system to resource extraction, energy production, population dynamics, food production and phosphorus extraction, manufacture of consumer goods and services. The WORLD6 model connects to environmental pollution with feedbacks and inputs to human health and climate change inside the model. The model includes money flows, stocks as well as debt dynamics and how this is connected to the capital base and the governance. The WORLD6 model has earlier been extensively tested on natural resource extraction rates, resource ore grades, supply volumes and market price for resources with very good success. The WORLD6 model system was tested in its economic aspects against observed GDP for the period 1850 to 2015 and GDP per capita, commodity prices, extraction rates and resource supply rates with good success. These results were obtained from first principles only and without calibrating the model to any type of data time-series.
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| 13. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
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The WORLD6 model for evaluation of natural resource sustainability considering metals, materials, energy, population and food.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Accelerating the Resource Revolution : WRF 2017 Meeting Report, Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017 - WRF 2017 Meeting Report, Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017. - 9783906177182
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new model; WORLD6 was developed. WORLD6 differs from the earlier system dynamics world models in several aspects. Several modules link the economy, materials, metals, energy, population and politics in a dynamic system. The present version is a result of a dismantling of the World3 model (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992, 2004) with an extension and substitution of its resource module and economy module. The WORLD6 model has several sub-modules at present which are all dynamically linked: 1. Population and food module: The module contains the original World3 model from 1972 model and used again in 1992 and 2004. This was enhanced with a new module for phosphate rock extraction, fertilizer production and an agricultural unit of WORLD6. 2. Materials and metals module a. Materials: Phosphorus, cement, sand, gravel and cut stone. b. Metals: Copper, zinc, lead, silver, gold, Iron, chromium, manganese, nickel, aluminium, stainless steel, antimony, bismuth, cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, cadmium, tellurium, selenium, lithium, platinum, palladium, rhodium, molybdenum, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, tin, wolfram (tungsten), titanium, zirconium, hafnium and rare earth metals.3. Economy module: The model has a new simplified global economy module, considering the major actors like households, businesses, and government. Disposable funds, investments and market price for every resource is simulated endogenously in the model for every resource: metals, materials, food and commodities. 4. Energy module: An energy model including the extraction of fossil fuels. Different types of oil, gas, and coal as well as the extraction dynamics and reprocessing of uranium and thorium, used in conventional and breeder reactor technologies, technological energy harvests and renewable energy. 5. Climate and biosphere module: A simplified CLIMATE change module, converting CO2 emissions to CO2 in the atmosphere, with increase in temperature and sea level rise.
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