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| 2. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 3. |
- Costello, David M., et al.
(författare)
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Global patterns and controls of nutrient immobilization on decomposing cellulose in riverine ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 36:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbes play a critical role in plant litter decomposition and influence the fate of carbon in rivers and riparian zones. When decomposing low-nutrient plant litter, microbes acquire nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the environment (i.e., nutrient immobilization), and this process is potentially sensitive to nutrient loading and changing climate. Nonetheless, environmental controls on immobilization are poorly understood because rates are also influenced by plant litter chemistry, which is coupled to the same environmental factors. Here we used a standardized, low-nutrient organic matter substrate (cotton strips) to quantify nutrient immobilization at 100 paired stream and riparian sites representing 11 biomes worldwide. Immobilization rates varied by three orders of magnitude, were greater in rivers than riparian zones, and were strongly correlated to decomposition rates. In rivers, P immobilization rates were controlled by surface water phosphate concentrations, but N immobilization rates were not related to inorganic N. The N:P of immobilized nutrients was tightly constrained to a molar ratio of 10:1 despite wide variation in surface water N:P. Immobilization rates were temperature-dependent in riparian zones but not related to temperature in rivers. However, in rivers nutrient supply ultimately controlled whether microbes could achieve the maximum expected decomposition rate at a given temperature. Collectively, we demonstrated that exogenous nutrient supply and immobilization are critical control points for decomposition of organic matter.
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| 4. |
- Perez-Escobar, Oscar A., et al.
(författare)
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The origin and speciation of orchids
- 2024
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Ingår i: NEW PHYTOLOGIST. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 242:2, s. 700-716
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Orchids constitute one of the most spectacular radiations of flowering plants. However, their origin, spread across the globe, and hotspots of speciation remain uncertain due to the lack of an up-to-date phylogeographic analysis. We present a new Orchidaceae phylogeny based on combined high-throughput and Sanger sequencing data, covering all five subfamilies, 17/22 tribes, 40/49 subtribes, 285/736 genera, and c. 7% (1921) of the 29 524 accepted species, and use it to infer geographic range evolution, diversity, and speciation patterns by adding curated geographical distributions from the World Checklist of Vascular Plants. The orchids' most recent common ancestor is inferred to have lived in Late Cretaceous Laurasia. The modern range of Apostasioideae, which comprises two genera with 16 species from India to northern Australia, is interpreted as relictual, similar to that of numerous other groups that went extinct at higher latitudes following the global climate cooling during the Oligocene. Despite their ancient origin, modern orchid species diversity mainly originated over the last 5 Ma, with the highest speciation rates in Panama and Costa Rica. These results alter our understanding of the geographic origin of orchids, previously proposed as Australian, and pinpoint Central America as a region of recent, explosive speciation.
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| 5. |
- Aguilar-Vazquez, A, et al.
(författare)
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Impaired muscle strength is associated with ultrastructure damage in myositis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1, s. 17671-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The muscle fiber ultrastructure in Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathies (IIM) has been scarcely explored, especially in Inclusion Body Myositis. The aim of this study was to implement the Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in a small cohort of IIM patients, together with the characterization of immunological profile for a better understanding of the pathophysiology. For immunological profile characterization, we identified the presence of autoantibodies (Ro-52, OJ, EJ, PL7, PL12, SRP, Jo-1, PMScl75, PMScl100, Ku, SAE1, NXP2, MDA5, TIF1γ, Mi-2α, Mi-2β) and quantified cytokines (IL-1β, IFN-α2, IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-17A, IL-18, IL-23, IL-33) and chemokines (CCL2, CXCL8). The histological analysis was made by hematoxylin–eosin staining while the muscle fiber ultrastructure was characterized by SEM. We observed changes in the morphology and structure of the muscle fiber according to muscle strength and muscle enzymes. We were able to find and describe muscle fiber ultrastructure with marked irregularities, porosities, disruption in the linearity and integrity of the fascicle, more evident in patients with increased serum levels of muscle enzymes and diminished muscle strength. Despite the scarce reports about the use of SEM as a tool in all clinical phenotypes of IIM, our work provides an excellent opportunity to discuss and reframe the clinical usefulness of SEM in the diagnostic approach of IIM.
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| 6. |
- Nygård, K., et al.
(författare)
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ForMAX – a beamline for multiscale and multimodal structural characterization of hierarchical materials
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Synchrotron Radiation. - : International Union of Crystallography (IUCr). - 0909-0495 .- 1600-5775. ; 31:Pt 2, s. 363-377
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ForMAX beamline at the MAX IV Laboratory provides multiscale and multimodal structural characterization of hierarchical materials in the nanometre to millimetre range by combining small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering with full-field microtomography. The modular design of the beamline is optimized for easy switching between different experimental modalities. The beamline has a special focus on the development of novel fibrous materials from forest resources, but it is also well suited for studies within, for example, food science and biomedical research.
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| 7. |
- Prasciolu, Mauro, et al.
(författare)
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On the use of multilayer Laue lenses with X-ray free electron lasers
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Conference on X-Ray Lasers 2020. - : SPIE. - 1996-756X .- 0277-786X. - 9781510646186 ; 11886
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the use of multilayer Laue lenses to focus the intense X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) beam at the European XFEL to a spot size of a few tens of nanometers. We present the procedure to align and characterize these lenses and discuss challenges working with the pulse trains from this unique X-ray source.
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| 8. |
- Villa-Islas, Viridiana, et al.
(författare)
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Demographic history and genetic structure in pre-Hispanic Central Mexico
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 380:6645
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aridoamerica and Mesoamerica are two distinct cultural areas in northern and central Mexico, respectively, that hosted numerous pre-Hispanic civilizations between 2500 BCE and 1521 CE. The division between these regions shifted southward because of severe droughts ~1100 years ago, which allegedly drove a population replacement in central Mexico by Aridoamerican peoples. In this study, we present shotgun genome-wide data from 12 individuals and 27 mitochondrial genomes from eight pre-Hispanic archaeological sites across Mexico, including two at the shifting border of Aridoamerica and Mesoamerica. We find population continuity that spans the climate change episode and a broad preservation of the genetic structure across present-day Mexico for the past 2300 years. Lastly, we identify a contribution to pre-Hispanic populations of northern and central Mexico from two ancient unsampled “ghost” populations.
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| 9. |
- Villanueva-Perez, P., et al.
(författare)
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Scanning Compton X-ray microscopy
- 2021
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Ingår i: Optics Letters. - 0146-9592. ; 46:8, s. 1920-1923
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- X-ray microscopy offers the opportunity to image biological and radiosensitive materials without special sample preparations, bridging optical and electron microscopy capabilities. However, the performance of such microscopes, when imaging radiosensitive samples, is not limited by their intrinsic resolution, but by the radiation damage induced on such samples. Here, we demonstrate a novel, to the best of our knowledge, radio-efficient microscope, scanning Compton X-ray microscopy (SCXM), which uses coherently and incoherently (Compton) scattered photons to minimize the deposited energy per unit of mass for a given imaging signal. We implemented SCXM, using lenses capable of efficiently focusing 60 keV X-ray photons into the sub-micrometer scale, and probe its radio-efficient capabilities. SCXM, when implemented in high-energy diffraction-limited storage rings, e.g., European Synchrotron Radiation Facility Extremely Brilliant Source and PETRA IV, will open the opportunity to explore the nanoscale of unstained, unsectioned, and undamaged radiosensitive materials.
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