| 1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 4. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 5. |
- Khatri, C, et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:11, s. e050830-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis.SettingProspective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study.ParticipantsPatients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative).Primary outcome30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality.ResultsThis study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p<0.001), age >80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787).ConclusionsPatients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups.Trial registration numberNCT04323644
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| 6. |
- Blokland, G. A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Sex-Dependent Shared and Nonshared Genetic Architecture Across Mood and Psychotic Disorders
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biological Psychiatry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0006-3223 .- 1873-2402. ; 91:1, s. 102-117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Sex differences in incidence and/or presentation of schizophrenia (SCZ), major depressive disorder (MDD), and bipolar disorder (BIP) are pervasive. Previous evidence for shared genetic risk and sex differences in brain abnormalities across disorders suggest possible shared sex-dependent genetic risk. Methods: We conducted the largest to date genome-wide genotype-by-sex (G×S) interaction of risk for these disorders using 85,735 cases (33,403 SCZ, 19,924 BIP, and 32,408 MDD) and 109,946 controls from the PGC (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium) and iPSYCH. Results: Across disorders, genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphism–by-sex interaction was detected for a locus encompassing NKAIN2 (rs117780815, p = 3.2 × 10−8), which interacts with sodium/potassium-transporting ATPase (adenosine triphosphatase) enzymes, implicating neuronal excitability. Three additional loci showed evidence (p < 1 × 10−6) for cross-disorder G×S interaction (rs7302529, p = 1.6 × 10−7; rs73033497, p = 8.8 × 10−7; rs7914279, p = 6.4 × 10−7), implicating various functions. Gene-based analyses identified G×S interaction across disorders (p = 8.97 × 10−7) with transcriptional inhibitor SLTM. Most significant in SCZ was a MOCOS gene locus (rs11665282, p = 1.5 × 10−7), implicating vascular endothelial cells. Secondary analysis of the PGC-SCZ dataset detected an interaction (rs13265509, p = 1.1 × 10−7) in a locus containing IDO2, a kynurenine pathway enzyme with immunoregulatory functions implicated in SCZ, BIP, and MDD. Pathway enrichment analysis detected significant G×S interaction of genes regulating vascular endothelial growth factor receptor signaling in MDD (false discovery rate-corrected p < .05). Conclusions: In the largest genome-wide G×S analysis of mood and psychotic disorders to date, there was substantial genetic overlap between the sexes. However, significant sex-dependent effects were enriched for genes related to neuronal development and immune and vascular functions across and within SCZ, BIP, and MDD at the variant, gene, and pathway levels. © 2021 Society of Biological Psychiatry
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| 7. |
- Munn-Chernoff, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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Shared genetic risk between eating disorder- and substance-use-related phenotypes: Evidence from genome-wide association studies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Addiction Biology. - : Wiley. - 1355-6215 .- 1369-1600. ; 26:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Eating disorders and substance use disorders frequently co-occur. Twin studies reveal shared genetic variance between liabilities to eating disorders and substance use, with the strongest associations between symptoms of bulimia nervosa and problem alcohol use (genetic correlation [r(g)], twin-based = 0.23-0.53). We estimated the genetic correlation between eating disorder and substance use and disorder phenotypes using data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Four eating disorder phenotypes (anorexia nervosa [AN], AN with binge eating, AN without binge eating, and a bulimia nervosa factor score), and eight substance-use-related phenotypes (drinks per week, alcohol use disorder [AUD], smoking initiation, current smoking, cigarettes per day, nicotine dependence, cannabis initiation, and cannabis use disorder) from eight studies were included. Significant genetic correlations were adjusted for variants associated with major depressive disorder and schizophrenia. Total study sample sizes per phenotype ranged from similar to 2400 to similar to 537 000 individuals. We used linkage disequilibrium score regression to calculate single nucleotide polymorphism-based genetic correlations between eating disorder- and substance-use-related phenotypes. Significant positive genetic associations emerged between AUD and AN (r(g) = 0.18; false discovery rate q = 0.0006), cannabis initiation and AN (r(g) = 0.23; q < 0.0001), and cannabis initiation and AN with binge eating (r(g) = 0.27; q = 0.0016). Conversely, significant negative genetic correlations were observed between three nondiagnostic smoking phenotypes (smoking initiation, current smoking, and cigarettes per day) and AN without binge eating (r(gs) = -0.19 to -0.23; qs < 0.04). The genetic correlation between AUD and AN was no longer significant after co-varying for major depressive disorder loci. The patterns of association between eating disorder- and substance-use-related phenotypes highlights the potentially complex and substance-specific relationships among these behaviors.
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| 8. |
- Thoma, B, et al.
(författare)
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An international, interprofessional investigation of the self-reported podcast listening habits of emergency clinicians: A METRIQ Study
- 2020
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Ingår i: CJEM. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1481-8043 .- 1481-8035. ; 22:1, s. 112-117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectivesPodcasts are increasingly being used for medical education. A deeper understanding of usage patterns would inform both producers and researchers of medical podcasts. We aimed to determine how and why podcasts are used by emergency medicine and critical care clinicians.MethodsAn international interprofessional sample (medical students, residents, physicians, nurses, physician assistants, and paramedics) was recruited through direct contact and a multimodal social media (Twitter and Facebook) campaign. Each participant completed a survey outlining how and why they utilize medical podcasts. Recruitment materials included an infographic and study website.Results390 participants from 33 countries and 4 professions (medicine, nursing, paramedicine, physician assistant) completed the survey. Participants most frequently listened to medical podcasts to review new literature (75.8%), learn core material (75.1%), and refresh memory (71.8%). The majority (62.6%) were aware of the ability to listen at increased speeds, but most (76.9%) listened at 1.0 x (normal) speed. All but 25 (6.4%) participants concurrently performed other tasks while listening. Driving (72.3%), exercising (39.7%), and completing chores (39.2%) were the most common. A minority of participants used active learning techniques such as pausing, rewinding, and replaying segments of the podcast. Very few listened to podcasts multiple times.ConclusionsAn international cohort of emergency clinicians use medical podcasts predominantly for learning. Their listening habits (rarely employing active learning strategies and frequently performing concurrent tasks) may not support this goal. Further exploration of the impact of these activities on learning from podcasts is warranted.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Abdalla, E., et al.
(författare)
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Cosmology intertwined : A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Astrophysics. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-4048 .- 2214-4056. ; 34, s. 49-211
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H0, the σ8–S8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density Ωm, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure (σ8,fσ8). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H0–S8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Dareng, EO, et al.
(författare)
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Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk
- 2022
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Ingår i: European journal of human genetics : EJHG. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5438 .- 1018-4813. ; 30:3, s. 349-362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, “select and shrink for summary statistics” (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28–1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08–1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21–1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29–1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35–1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Aragam, KG, et al.
(författare)
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Discovery and systematic characterization of risk variants and genes for coronary artery disease in over a million participants
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 54:12, s. 1803-1815
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The discovery of genetic loci associated with complex diseases has outpaced the elucidation of mechanisms of disease pathogenesis. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) comprising 181,522 cases among 1,165,690 participants of predominantly European ancestry. We detected 241 associations, including 30 new loci. Cross-ancestry meta-analysis with a Japanese GWAS yielded 38 additional new loci. We prioritized likely causal variants using functionally informed fine-mapping, yielding 42 associations with less than five variants in the 95% credible set. Similarity-based clustering suggested roles for early developmental processes, cell cycle signaling and vascular cell migration and proliferation in the pathogenesis of CAD. We prioritized 220 candidate causal genes, combining eight complementary approaches, including 123 supported by three or more approaches. Using CRISPR–Cas9, we experimentally validated the effect of an enhancer in MYO9B, which appears to mediate CAD risk by regulating vascular cell motility. Our analysis identifies and systematically characterizes >250 risk loci for CAD to inform experimental interrogation of putative causal mechanisms for CAD.
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| 17. |
- Aragam, KG, et al.
(författare)
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Discovery and systematic characterization of risk variants and genes for coronary artery disease in over a million participants
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 54:12, s. 1803-1815
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The discovery of genetic loci associated with complex diseases has outpaced the elucidation of mechanisms of disease pathogenesis. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) comprising 181,522 cases among 1,165,690 participants of predominantly European ancestry. We detected 241 associations, including 30 new loci. Cross-ancestry meta-analysis with a Japanese GWAS yielded 38 additional new loci. We prioritized likely causal variants using functionally informed fine-mapping, yielding 42 associations with less than five variants in the 95% credible set. Similarity-based clustering suggested roles for early developmental processes, cell cycle signaling and vascular cell migration and proliferation in the pathogenesis of CAD. We prioritized 220 candidate causal genes, combining eight complementary approaches, including 123 supported by three or more approaches. Using CRISPR–Cas9, we experimentally validated the effect of an enhancer in MYO9B, which appears to mediate CAD risk by regulating vascular cell motility. Our analysis identifies and systematically characterizes >250 risk loci for CAD to inform experimental interrogation of putative causal mechanisms for CAD.
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| 18. |
- Axfors, Cathrine, et al.
(författare)
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Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19 : a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Infectious Diseases. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2334. ; 21:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, ). Methods: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. Results: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I-2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. Conclusions: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care.
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| 19. |
- Muscarella, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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The global abundance of tree palms
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 29:9, s. 1495-1514
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimPalms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change.LocationTropical and subtropical moist forests.Time periodCurrent.Major taxa studiedPalms (Arecaceae).MethodsWe assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure.ResultsOn average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work.ConclusionsTree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests.
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| 20. |
- Brevini, T, et al.
(författare)
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FXR inhibition may protect from SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing ACE2
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7950, s. 134-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection by modulating viral host receptors, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)1, could represent a new chemoprophylactic approach for COVID-19 that complements vaccination2,3. However, the mechanisms that control the expression of ACE2 remain unclear. Here we show that the farnesoid X receptor (FXR) is a direct regulator of ACE2 transcription in several tissues affected by COVID-19, including the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. We then use the over-the-counter compound z-guggulsterone and the off-patent drug ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) to reduce FXR signalling and downregulate ACE2 in human lung, cholangiocyte and intestinal organoids and in the corresponding tissues in mice and hamsters. We show that the UDCA-mediated downregulation of ACE2 reduces susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro, in vivo and in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ. Furthermore, we reveal that UDCA reduces the expression of ACE2 in the nasal epithelium in humans. Finally, we identify a correlation between UDCA treatment and positive clinical outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection using retrospective registry data, and confirm these findings in an independent validation cohort of recipients of liver transplants. In conclusion, we show that FXR has a role in controlling ACE2 expression and provide evidence that modulation of this pathway could be beneficial for reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection, paving the way for future clinical trials.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Sherwood, S. C., et al.
(författare)
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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
- 2020
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Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 58:4
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Kasliwal, Mansi M., et al.
(författare)
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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg(2), a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10(-25) yr(-1). The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day(-1) (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day(-1)) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M-ej M, X-lan > 10(-4), or > 30 degrees to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of -16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Sim, Thomas G., et al.
(författare)
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Regional variability in peatland burning at mid-to high-latitudes during the Holocene
- 2023
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern peatlands store globally-important amounts of carbon in the form of partly decomposed plant detritus. Drying associated with climate and land-use change may lead to increased fire frequency and severity in peatlands and the rapid loss of carbon to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the patterns and drivers of peatland burning on an appropriate decadal to millennial timescale relies heavily on individual site-based reconstructions. For the first time, we synthesise peatland macrocharcoal re-cords from across North America, Europe, and Patagonia to reveal regional variation in peatland burning during the Holocene. We used an existing database of proximal sedimentary charcoal to represent regional burning trends in the wider landscape for each region. Long-term trends in peatland burning appear to be largely climate driven, with human activities likely having an increasing influence in the late Holocene. Warmer conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (similar to 9e6 cal. ka BP) were associated with greater peatland burning in North America's Atlantic coast, southern Scandinavia and the Baltics, and Patagonia. Since the Little Ice Age, peatland burning has declined across North America and in some areas of Europe. This decline is mirrored by a decrease in wider landscape burning in some, but not all sub-regions, linked to fire-suppression policies, and landscape fragmentation caused by agricultural expansion. Peatlands demonstrate lower susceptibility to burning than the wider landscape in several instances, probably because of autogenic processes that maintain high levels of near-surface wetness even during drought. Nonetheless, widespread drying and degradation of peatlands, particularly in Europe, has likely increased their vulnerability to burning in recent centuries. Consequently, peatland restoration efforts are important to mitigate the risk of peatland fire under a changing climate. Finally, we make recommendations for future research to improve our understanding of the controls on peatland fires.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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| 28. |
- Thompson, Robin N., et al.
(författare)
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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1932
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Généreux, Philippe, et al.
(författare)
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Evolution and Prognostic Impact of Cardiac Damage After Aortic Valve Replacement.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - 1558-3597.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of aortic valve replacement (AVR) on progression/regression of extra-valvular cardiac damage and its association with subsequent prognosis is unknown.To describe evolution of cardiac damage post-AVR and its association with outcomes.Patients undergoing transcatheter or surgical AVR from the PARTNER 2 and 3 trials were pooled and classified by cardiac damage stage at baseline and 1-year (Stage 0, no damage; Stage 1, left ventricular damage; Stage 2, left atrial or mitral valve damage; Stage 3, pulmonary vasculature or tricuspid valve damage; Stage 4, right ventricular damage). Proportional hazards models determined association between change in cardiac damage post-AVR and 2-year outcomes.Among 1974 patients, 121 (6.1%) were Stage 0, 287 (14.5%) Stage 1, 1014 (51.4%) Stage 2, 412 (20.9%) Stage 3, and 140 (7.1%) Stage 4 pre-AVR. Two-year mortality was associated with extent of cardiac damage at baseline and 1-year. Compared with baseline, cardiac damage improved in ∼15%, remained unchanged in ∼60%, and worsened in ∼25% of patients at 1-year. One-year change in cardiac damage stage was independently associated with mortality (adjHR for improvement=0.49; no change=1.0; worsening=1.95; p=0.023) and composite of death or heart failure hospitalization (adjHR for improvement=0.60; no change=1.0; worsening=2.25; p<0.001) at 2 years.In patients undergoing AVR, extent of extravalvular cardiac damage at baseline and its change at 1-year have important prognostic implications. These findings suggest that earlier detection of AS and intervention prior to development of irreversible cardiac damage may improve global cardiac function and prognosis.
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| 31. |
- Ludwig, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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Transcatheter Mitral Valve Replacement versus Medical Therapy for Secondary Mitral Regurgitation: A Propensity Score-Matched Comparison.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Circulation. Cardiovascular interventions. - 1941-7632. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) is an emerging therapeutic alternative for patients with secondary mitral regurgitation (MR). Outcomes of TMVR versus guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) have not been investigated for this population. This study aimed to compare clinical outcomes of patients with secondary MR undergoing TMVR versus GDMT alone. Methods: The CHOICE-MI registry included patients with MR undergoing TMVR using dedicated devices. Patients with MR etiologies other than secondary MR were excluded. Patients treated with GDMT alone were derived from the control arm of the COAPT trial. We compared outcomes between the TMVR and GDMT groups, using propensity score (PS)-matching to adjust for baseline differences. Results: After PS-matching, 97 patient pairs undergoing TMVR (72.9±8.7 years, 60.8% male, transapical access 91.8%) versus GDMT (73.1±11.0 years, 59.8% male) were compared. At 1 and 2 years, residual MR was ≤1+ in all patients of the TMVR group compared to 6.9% and 7.7%, respectively, in those receiving GDMT alone (both p<0.001). The 2-year rate of HF hospitalization was significantly lower in the TMVR group (32.8% vs. 54.4%, HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.35-0.99; p=0.04). Among survivors, a higher proportion of patients were in NYHA functional class I or II in the TMVR group at 1 year (78.2% vs. 59.7%, p=0.03) and at 2 years (77.8% vs. 53.2%, p=0.09). Two-year mortality was similar in the two groups (TMVR vs. GDMT, 36.8% vs. 40.8%, HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.62-1.64; p=0.98). Conclusions: In this observational comparison, over 2-year follow-up, TMVR using mostly transapical devices in patients with secondary MR was associated with significant reduction of MR, symptomatic improvement, less frequent hospitalizations for HF and similar mortality compared with GDMT.
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| 32. |
- Winkler, MJ, et al.
(författare)
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Functional investigation of the coronary artery disease gene SVEP1
- 2020
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Ingår i: Basic research in cardiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1435-1803 .- 0300-8428. ; 115:6, s. 67-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A missense variant of the sushi, von Willebrand factor type A, EGF and pentraxin domain containing protein 1 (SVEP1) is genome-wide significantly associated with coronary artery disease. The mechanisms how SVEP1 impacts atherosclerosis are not known. We found endothelial cells (EC) and vascular smooth muscle cells to represent the major cellular source of SVEP1 in plaques. Plaques were larger in atherosclerosis-prone Svep1 haploinsufficient (ApoE−/−Svep1+/−) compared to Svep1 wild-type mice (ApoE−/−Svep1+/+) and ApoE−/−Svep1+/− mice displayed elevated plaque neutrophil, Ly6Chigh monocyte, and macrophage numbers. We assessed how leukocytes accumulated more inside plaques in ApoE−/−Svep1+/− mice and found enhanced leukocyte recruitment from blood into plaques. In vitro, we examined how SVEP1 deficiency promotes leukocyte recruitment and found elevated expression of the leukocyte attractant chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1 (CXCL1) in EC after incubation with missense compared to wild-type SVEP1. Increasing wild-type SVEP1 levels silenced endothelial CXCL1 release. In line, plasma Cxcl1 levels were elevated in ApoE−/−Svep1+/− mice. Our studies reveal an atheroprotective role of SVEP1. Deficiency of wild-type Svep1 increased endothelial CXCL1 expression leading to enhanced recruitment of proinflammatory leukocytes from blood to plaque. Consequently, elevated vascular inflammation resulted in enhanced plaque progression in Svep1 deficiency.
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| 33. |
- Gregory, J. M., et al.
(författare)
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How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:1-2, s. 129-157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, in K) to CO2 doubling is a large source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Estimates of ECS made from non-equilibrium states or in response to radiative forcings other than 2×CO2 are called “effective climate sensitivity” (EffCS, in K). Taking a “perfect-model” approach, using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments, we evaluate the accuracy with which CO2 EffCS can be estimated from climate change in the “historical” period (since about 1860). We find that (1) for statistical reasons, unforced variability makes the estimate of historical EffCS both uncertain and biased; it is overestimated by about 10% if the energy balance is applied to the entire historical period, 20% for 30-year periods, and larger factors for interannual variability, (2) systematic uncertainty in historical radiative forcing translates into an uncertainty of±30 to 45% (standard deviation) in historical EffCS, (3) the response to the changing relative importance of the forcing agents, principally CO2 and volcanic aerosol, causes historical EffCS to vary over multidecadal timescales by a factor of two. In recent decades it reached its maximum in the AOGCM historical experiment (similar to the multimodel-mean CO2 EffCS of 3.6 K from idealised experiments), but its minimum in the real world (1.6 K for an observational estimate for 1985–2011, similar to the multimodel-mean value for volcanic forcing). The real-world variations mean that historical EffCS underestimates CO2 EffCS by 30% when considering the entire historical period. The difference for recent decades implies that either unforced variability or the response to volcanic forcing causes a much stronger regional pattern of sea surface temperature change in the real world than in AOGCMs. We speculate that this could be explained by a deficiency in simulated coupled atmosphere–ocean feedbacks which reinforce the pattern (resembling the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in some respects) that causes the low EffCS. We conclude that energy-balance estimates of CO2 EffCS are most accurate from periods unaffected by volcanic forcing. Atmosphere GCMs provided with observed sea surface temperature for the 1920s to the 1950s, which was such a period, give a range of about 2.0–4.5 K, agreeing with idealised CO2 AOGCM experiments; the consistency is a reason for confidence in this range as an estimate of CO2 EffCS. Unless another explosive volcanic eruption occurs, the first 30 years of the present century may give a more accurate energy-balance historical estimate of this quantity.
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Hirscher, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Materials for hydrogen-based energy storage - past, recent progress and future outlook
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Alloys and Compounds. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-8388 .- 1873-4669. ; 827
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Globally, the accelerating use of renewable energy sources, enabled by increased efficiencies and reduced costs, and driven by the need to mitigate the effects of climate change, has significantly increased research in the areas of renewable energy production, storage, distribution and end-use. Central to this discussion is the use of hydrogen, as a clean, efficient energy vector for energy storage. This review, by experts of Task 32, Hydrogen-based Energy Storage of the International Energy Agency, Hydrogen TCP, reports on the development over the last 6 years of hydrogen storage materials, methods and techniques, including electrochemical and thermal storage systems. An overview is given on the background to the various methods, the current state of development and the future prospects. The following areas are covered; porous materials, liquid hydrogen carriers, complex hydrides, intermetallic hydrides, electrochemical storage of energy, thermal energy storage, hydrogen energy systems and an outlook is presented for future prospects and research on hydrogen-based energy storage.
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| 37. |
- Jacquet, Jennifer, et al.
(författare)
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Support US OCTOPUS Act to keep octopuses wild.
- 2024
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Ingår i: Science (New York, N.Y.). - 1095-9203. ; 385:6710, s. 721-722
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Commercial octopus farming is incapable of meeting welfare requirements, unsustainable, and unnecessary for sustenance. Although no commercial octopus farms currently exist, a Spanish seafood company plans to build one in the Canary Islands for Octopus vulgaris. In March, the US state of Washington banned octopus farming. Similar legislation has been introduced in California and Hawai‘i . Now, the federal government is proposing action. The US Congress should pass the OCTOPUS Act, a federal law that would prohibit commercial octopus aquaculture in the United States and the import of commercially farmed octopus or octopus products.
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| 38. |
- Jones, E. J. H., et al.
(författare)
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Infant EEG theta modulation predicts childhood intelligence
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intellectual functioning is a critical determinant of economic and personal productivity. Identifying early neural predictors of cognitive function in infancy will allow us to map the neurodevelopmental pathways that underpin individual differences in intellect. Here, in three different cohorts we investigate the association between a putative neurophysiological indicator of information encoding (change in frontal theta during a novel video) in infancy and later general cognitive outcome. In a discovery cohort of 12-month-old typically developing infants, we recorded EEG during presentation of dynamic movies of people and objects. Frontal theta power (3-6 Hz) significantly increased during the course of viewing each video. Critically, increase in frontal theta during viewing of a video was associated with a differential response to repetition of that specific video, confirming relation to learning. Further, individual differences in the magnitude of change in frontal theta power were related to concurrent nonverbal cognitive level. We then sought to extend this association in two independent samples enriched for variation in cognitive outcome due to the inclusion of infants at familial risk for autism. We observed similar patterns of theta EEG change at 12 months, and found a predictive relation to verbal and nonverbal cognitive skills measured at 2, 3 and 7 years of age. For the subset of high-risk infants later diagnosed with autism, infant theta EEG explained over 80% of the variance in nonverbal skills at age 3 years. We suggest that EEG theta change in infancy is an excellent candidate predictive biomarker that could yield substantial insight into the mechanisms that underlie individual differences in childhood intelligence, particularly in high risk populations.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Pirkis, Jane, et al.
(författare)
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Suicide numbers during the first 9-15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with pre-existing trends : An interrupted time series analysis in 33 countries
- 2022
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Ingår i: eClinicalMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2589-5370. ; 51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally. Methods We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age-and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation. Findings We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries' COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries' income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well. Interpretation Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue. Copyright (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
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| 41. |
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| 42. |
- Tsao, K., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale
- 2020
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Ingår i: Interface Focus. - : Royal Society Publishing. - 2042-8898 .- 2042-8901. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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| 43. |
- Brasky, Theodore M., et al.
(författare)
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Dietary omega-3 fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium : An individual-participant meta-analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: Gynecologic Oncology. - : Elsevier. - 0090-8258 .- 1095-6859. ; 169, s. 137-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. Limited data from prospective studies suggest that higher dietary intake of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCn3PUFA), which hold anti-inflammatory properties, may reduce endometrial can-cer risk; particularly among certain subgroups characterized by body mass and tumor pathology.Materials and methods. Data from 12 prospective cohort studies participating in the Epidemiology of Endome-trial Cancer Consortium were harmonized as nested case-control studies, including 7268 endometrial cancer cases and 26,133 controls. Habitual diet was assessed by food frequency questionnaire, from which fatty acid in-takes were estimated. Two-stage individual-participant data mixed effects meta-analysis estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) through logistic regression for associations between study -specific energy-adjusted quartiles of LCn3PUFA and endometrial cancer risk.Results. Women with the highest versus lowest estimated dietary intakes of docosahexaenoic acid, the most abundant LCn3PUFA in diet, had a 9% increased endometrial cancer risk (Quartile 4 vs. Quartile 1: OR 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.19; P trend = 0.04). Similar elevated risks were observed for the summary measure of total LCn3PUFA (OR 1.07, 95% CI: 0.99-1.16; P trend = 0.06). Stratified by body mass index, higher intakes of LCn3PUFA were as-sociated with 12-19% increased endometrial cancer risk among overweight/obese women and no increased risk among normal-weight women. Higher associations appeared restricted to White women. The results did not dif-fer by cancer grade.Conclusion. Higher dietary intakes of LCn3PUFA are unlikely to reduce endometrial cancer incidence; rather, they may be associated with small to moderate increases in risk in some subgroups of women, particularly over-weight/obese women.(c) 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 44. |
- Gilbertson, Kendra, et al.
(författare)
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The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics
- 2022
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Ingår i: Life. - : MDPI. - 2075-1729. ; 12:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.
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| 45. |
- Sellman, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States
- 2020
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 16:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spatially explicit livestock disease models require demographic data for individual farms or premises. In the U.S., demographic data are only available aggregated at county or coarser scales, so disease models must rely on assumptions about how individual premises are distributed within counties. Here, we addressed the importance of realistic assumptions for this purpose. We compared modeling of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks using simple randomization of locations to premises configurations predicted by the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS), which infers location based on features such as topography, land-cover, climate, and roads. We focused on three premises-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed models available from the literature, all using the same kernel approach but with different parameterizations and functional forms. By computing the basic reproductive number of the infection (R-0) for both FLAPS and randomized configurations, we investigated how spatial locations and clustering of premises affects outbreak predictions. Further, we performed stochastic simulations to evaluate if identified differences were consistent for later stages of an outbreak. Using Ripleys K to quantify clustering, we found that FLAPS configurations were substantially more clustered at the scales relevant for the implemented models, leading to a higher frequency of nearby premises compared to randomized configurations. As a result, R-0 was typically higher in FLAPS configurations, and the simulation study corroborated the pattern for later stages of outbreaks. Further, both R-0 and simulations exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in terms of differences between configurations. Thus, using realistic assumptions when de-aggregating locations based on available data can have a pronounced effect on epidemiological predictions, affecting if, where, and to what extent FMD may invade the population. We conclude that methods such as FLAPS should be preferred over randomization approaches.
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
- Winfield, A. F. T., et al.
(författare)
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Ethical Risk Assessment for Social Robots : Case Studies in Smart Robot Toys
- 2022
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Ingår i: Intelligent Systems, Control and Automation: Science and Engineering. - Cham : Springer Nature. ; , s. 61-76
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Risk Assessment is a well known and powerful method for discovering and mitigating risks, and hence improving safety. Ethical Risk Assessment uses the same approach, but extends the scope of risk to cover ethical risks in addition to safety risks. In this paper we outline Ethical Risk Assessment (ERA), and set ERA within the broader framework of Responsible Robotics. We then illustrate ERA, first with a hypothetical smart robot teddy bear (RoboTed), and later with an actual smart robot toy (Purrble). Through these two case studies this paper demonstrates the value of ERA and how consideration of ethical risks can prompt design changes, resulting in more ethical and sustainable robots.
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