| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 3. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 4. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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| 5. |
- Van Loon, Anne F., et al.
(författare)
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Streamflow droughts aggravated by human activities despite management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 17:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human activities both aggravate and alleviate streamflow drought. Here we show that aggravation is dominant in contrasting cases around the world analysed with a consistent methodology. Our 28 cases included different combinations of human-water interactions. We found that water abstraction aggravated all drought characteristics, with increases of 20%-305% in total time in drought found across the case studies, and increases in total deficit of up to almost 3000%. Water transfers reduced drought time and deficit by up to 97%. In cases with both abstraction and water transfers into the catchment or augmenting streamflow from groundwater, the water inputs could not compensate for the aggravation of droughts due to abstraction and only shift the effects in space or time. Reservoir releases for downstream water use alleviated droughts in the dry season, but also led to deficits in the wet season by changing flow seasonality. This led to minor changes in average drought duration (-26 to +38%) and moderate changes in average drought deficit (-86 to +369%). Land use showed a smaller impact on streamflow drought, also with both increases and decreases observed (-48 to +98%). Sewage return flows and pipe leakage possibly counteracted the effects of increased imperviousness in urban areas; however, untangling the effects of land use change on streamflow drought is challenging. This synthesis of diverse global cases highlights the complexity of the human influence on streamflow drought and the added value of empirical comparative studies. Results indicate both intended and unintended consequences of water management and infrastructure on downstream society and ecosystems.
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| 6. |
- Chattopadhyay, D., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling Long-term Variability of Renewable Energy in Generation Planning
- 2020
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Ingår i: 2020 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING (PESGM). - : IEEE.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long term variability of solar and wind generation including inter- and intra-annual variability, as well as contingencies around low solar/wind availability periods are typically ignored in generation planning. This study explores planning methodology to capture long term variability including the computational challenges such a model presents. We use a case study for Guinea-Bissau - a small country in Africa transitioning from thermal to potentially high solar penetration in future. We show that long term variability and renewable contingency planning may have a strong impact on the selection of solar PV in such cases. We also show that batteries can increase the economic viability of solar PV in light of the inter-annual variability.
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| 7. |
- Van Loon, Anne F., et al.
(författare)
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Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception and management of droughts and their impacts is often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydro-eco-social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different time scales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately; and then study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River Basin in the US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River Basin in Northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; and High resilience, big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we argue for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase social and institutional memory to better deal with the complex hydro-eco-social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation.
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| 8. |
- Chang, Yueqing, et al.
(författare)
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Downfolding from ab initio to interacting model Hamiltonians : comprehensive analysis and benchmarking of the DFT+cRPA approach
- 2024
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Ingår i: npj Computational Materials. - 2057-3960. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model Hamiltonians are regularly derived from first principles to describe correlated matter. However, the standard methods for this contain a number of largely unexplored approximations. For a strongly correlated impurity model system, here we carefully compare a standard downfolding technique with the best possible ground-truth estimates for charge-neutral excited-state energies and wave functions using state-of-the-art first-principles many-body wave function approaches. To this end, we use the vanadocene molecule and analyze all downfolding aspects, including the Hamiltonian form, target basis, double-counting correction, and Coulomb interaction screening models. We find that the choice of target-space basis functions emerges as a key factor for the quality of the downfolded results, while orbital-dependent double-counting corrections diminish the quality. Background screening of the Coulomb interaction matrix elements primarily affects crystal-field excitations. Our benchmark uncovers the relative importance of each downfolding step and offers insights into the potential accuracy of minimal downfolded model Hamiltonians.
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| 9. |
- Moldan, Filip, et al.
(författare)
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The long-term fate of deposited nitrogen in temperate forest soils.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Biogeochemistry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-2563 .- 1573-515X. ; 150, s. 1-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs can alter the N cycle and affect forest ecosystem functions. The impact of increased N deposition depends among others on the ultimate fate of N in plant and soil N pools. Short-term studies (3–18 months) have shown that the organic soil layer was the dominant sink for N. However, longer time scales are needed to investigate the long-term fate of N. Therefore, the soils of four experimental forest sites across Europe were re-sampled ~ 2 decades after labelling with 15N. The sites covered a wide range of ambient N deposition varying from 13 to 58 kg N ha−1 year−1. To investigate the effects of different N loads on 15N recovery, ambient N levels were experimentally increased or decreased. We hypothesized that: (1) the mineral soil would become the dominant 15N sink after 2 decades, (2) long-term increased N deposition would lead to lower 15N recovery levels in the soil and (3) variables related to C dynamics would have the largest impact on 15N recovery in the soil. The results show that large amounts of the added 15N remain in the soil after 2 decades and at 2 out of 4 sites the 15N recovery levels are higher in the mineral soil than in the organic soil. The results show no clear responses of the isotopic signature to the changes in N deposition. Several environmental drivers are identified as controlling factors for long-term 15N recovery. Most drivers that significantly contribute to 15N recovery are strongly related to the soil organic matter (SOM) content. These findings are consistent with the idea that much of the added 15N is immobilized in the SOM. In the organic soil layer, we identify C stock, thickness of the organic layer, N-status and mean annual temperature of the forest sites as most important controlling factors. In the mineral soil we identify C stock, C content, pH, moisture content, bulk density, temperature, precipitation and forest stand age as most important controlling factors. Overall, our results show that these temperate forests are capable of retaining long-term increased N inputs preferably when SOM availability is high and SOM turnover and N availability are low.
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| 10. |
- Mumme, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Wherever I may roam—Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - Chichester : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:20, s. 5788-5801
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 14 elk (Cervus canadensis) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity. Global Change Biology© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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| 11. |
- Pastorelli, Giada, et al.
(författare)
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Constraining the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch phase with resolved stellar populations in the Large Magellanic Cloud
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 498:3, s. 3283-3301
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable models of the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase are of critical importance across astrophysics, including our interpretation of the spectral energy distribution of galaxies, cosmic dust production, and enrichment of the interstellar medium. With the aim of improving sets of stellar isochrones that include a detailed description of the TP-AGB phase, we extend our recent calibration of the AGB population in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) to the more metal-rich Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We model the LMC stellar populations with the TRILEGAL code, using the spatially resolved star formation history derived from the VISTA survey. We characterize the efficiency of the third dredge-up by matching the star counts and the K-s-band luminosity functions of the AGB stars identified in the LMC. In line with previous findings, we confirm that, compared to the SMC, the third dredge-up in AGB stars of the LMC is somewhat less efficient, as a consequence of the higher metallicity. The predicted range of initial mass of C-rich stars is between M-i approximate to 1.7 and 3 M-circle dot at Z(i) = 0.008. We show how the inclusion of new opacity data in the carbon star spectra will improve the performance of our models. We discuss the predicted lifetimes, integrated luminosities, and mass-loss rate distributions of the calibrated models. The results of our calibration are included in updated stellar isochrones publicly available.
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| 12. |
- Ripepi, Vincenzo, et al.
(författare)
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The VMC survey - XLVIII. Classical cepheids unveil the 3D geometry of the LMC
- 2022
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 512:1, s. 563-582
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We employed the VISTA near-infrared YJKssurvey of the Magellanic System (VMC) to analyse the Y, J, and Ks light curves of δCepheid stars (DCEPs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Our sample consists of 4408 objects accounting for 97 per cent of the combined list of OGLE IV and Gaia DR2 DCEPs. We determined a variety of period-luminosity (PL) and period-Wesenheit PW relationships for Fundamental (F) and First Overtone (1O) pulsators. We discovered for the first time a break in these relationships for 1O DCEPs at P= 0.58 d. We derived relative individual distances for DCEPs in the LMC with a precision of ∼1 kpc, calculating the position angle of the line of nodes and inclination of the galaxy: θ = 145.6 ± 1.0 deg and i = 25.7 ± 0.4 deg. The bar and the disc are seen under different viewing angles. We calculated the ages of the pulsators, finding two main episodes of DCEP formation lasting ∼40 Myr which happened 93 and 159 Myr ago. Likely as a result of its past interactions with the SMC, the LMC shows a non-planar distribution, with considerable structuring: the bar is divided into two distinct portions, the eastern and the western displaced by more than 1 kpc from each other. Similar behaviour is shown by the spiral arms. The LMC disc appears 'flared' and thick, with a disc scale height of h ∼0.97 kpc. This feature can be explained by strong tidal interactions with the Milky Way and/or the Small Magellanic Cloud or past merging events with now disrupted LMC satellites.
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| 13. |
- Schobert, Arne, et al.
(författare)
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Ab initio electron-lattice downfolding : Potential energy landscapes, anharmonicity, and molecular dynamics in charge density wave materials
- 2024
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Ingår i: SciPost Physics. - 2542-4653. ; 16:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The interplay of electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom presents an outstanding problem in condensed matter physics and chemistry. Computational challenges arise especially for large systems, long time scales, in nonequilibrium, or in systems with strong correlations. In this work, we show how downfolding approaches facilitate complexity reduction on the electronic side and thereby boost the simulation of electronic properties and nuclear motion—in particular molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Three different downfolding strategies based on constraining, unscreening, and combinations thereof are benchmarked against full density functional calculations for selected charge density wave (CDW) systems, namely 1H-TaS2, 1T-TiSe2, 1H-NbS2, and a one-dimensional carbon chain. We find that the downfolded models can reproduce potential energy surfaces on supercells accurately and facilitate computational speedup in MD simulations by about five orders of magnitude in comparison to purely ab initio calculations. For monolayer 1H-TaS2 we report classical and path integral replica exchange MD simulations, revealing the impact of thermal and quantum fluctuations on the CDW transition.
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| 14. |
- Shahmohammadi, Sadegh, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative Greenhouse Gas Footprinting of Online versus Traditional Shopping for Fast-Moving Consumer Goods: A Stochastic Approach
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 54:6, s. 3499-3509
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Variability in consumer practices and choices is typically not addressed in comparisons of environmental impacts of traditional shopping and e-commerce. Here, we developed a stochastic model to quantify the variability in the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints of product distribution and purchase of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) via three prevalent retail channels in the United Kingdom (U.K.). We found that shopping via bricks and clicks (click and fulfillment via physical store delivery) most likely decreases the GHG footprints when substituting traditional shopping, while FMCGs purchased through pure players with parcel delivery often have higher GHG footprints compared to those purchased via traditional retail. The number of items purchased and the last-mile travel distance are the dominant contributors to the variability in the GHG footprints of all three retail channels. We further showed that substituting delivery vans with electric cargo bikes can lead to a GHG emission reduction of 26% via parcel delivery. Finally, we showed the differences in the "last mile" GHG footprint of traditional shopping in the U.K. compared to three other countries (China, Netherlands, and the United States), which are primarily caused by the different shares of modes of transport ( walking and by car, bus, and bike).
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