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- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-
(författare)
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Beyond Technology : Understanding societal impacts of implementing self-driving vehicle systems on road transport
- 2024
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- During the last decade, self-driving vehicles have become a major topic of interest, promising to transform transport by making travel safer and more efficient. However, as we move closer to making these vehicles a reality, it has become clear that introducing them into society might not be as straightforward as once thought, and there are growing doubts about the benefits they are supposed to offer.In this thesis, I investigate the societal impacts of self-driving vehicles by exploring four aspects: reasons for researching self-driving vehicles, how these vehicles could be implemented, the societal impacts of fully implementing self-driving vehicles, and their relationship to sustainability goals.I find that the motivation for researching this topic is often opaque, and the existence of the technology itself is used as a justification for more research. Furthermore, most research into realising self-driving vehicles focuses on purely technical aspects such as designing better algorithms. However, I show that many challenges remain connected to the sociotechnical intertwinement of self-driving vehicles. For instance, I illustrate how they will interact with pedestrians and how services using self-driving vehicles would be practically organised.Additionally, self-driving vehicles are likely to impact many aspects of society, such as congestion, accessibility, and economic factors. However, I demonstrate that no single framework successfully captures all the identified societal impacts, which are likely to depend on diverse factors such as geographical variations.The impacts further affect sustainability, where new challenges are likely to emerge. I show that while current tools to govern the transport system are still relevant, a comprehensive approach is needed to ensure that policymakers make well-considered decisions. In conclusion, I call for a more balanced view of self-driving vehicles. Introducing this new technology requires careful planning and governance to ensure that self-driving vehicle systems genuinely enhance our quality of life and help build a sustainable future.
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| 2. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-
(författare)
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Exploring societal impacts of self-driving public transport using four-step transport models
- 2022
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- During the last decade, self-driving technology has become increasingly visible in the news, with the vision that people would enter vehicles that drive themselves, and that people could instead rest, read the newspaper, or have a meeting. However, these visions have mainly focused on the potential for car usage, even though public transport could benefit greatly from self-driving technology. For bus traffic, the bus driver accounts for half of the cost of driving, and savings on personnel costs could, for example, be reinvested in expanded public transport service or used to lower taxes.At the same time, more research has shown potential problems linked to self-driving technology, for example that more comfortable driving would lead to more traffic, which in turn would lead to increased emissions, higher noise levels in cities or further focus on car-centric infrastructure. For public transport, the driver's role in creating safety and acting as problem solvers has also been emphasized - who should I ask for directions if there is no knowledgeable driver on board?Various methods have previously been used to explore the social effects of self-driving technology and in this dissertation I have used so-called "four-stage models", more specifically the Swedish transport model Sampers. Four-stage models have been used for 50 years to evaluate effects on the transport system from e.g. infrastructure changes, but these models face new challenges, handling vehicles that drive by themselves. In my research, I have adjusted the model to simulate self-driving technology and investigated what effects this has on, for example, traffic volumes and emissions.In the three articles that are part of the dissertation, I have four main conclusions:Self-driving technology can mean large savings in costs for public transport, primarily for bus traffic but also to some extent for rail traffic. In addition, a smoother driving behaviour would mean more comfortable travel, which would increase the attractiveness of public transport. In addition, public transport not limited by, for example, driver schedules or current commercial conditions, could develop new types of services, such as on-demand public transport.Four-stage models have previously been used to model the transport system and have been shown to have good results, at least at an overall level. Within my research, I have made some adaptations of these models to mimic self-driving technology, but the models in their current form cannot consider, for example, vehicle sharing.It is important to point out that bus and train drivers currently perform many tasks that are not directly related to the driving of the vehicle, such as answering questions, maintaining social order among passengers and taking care of faults that occur during the trip. Today, self-driving technology cannot fulfil these roles.Self-driving technology for public transport would affect people's accessibility, driving style for vehicles, safety on board, how we plan traffic and the people who currently work as drivers. In fact, a multitude of societal effects have been identified, affecting all areas of transport. In addition, the effects are generally not similar across geographies, time units or for different actors, which further emphasizes that the total effect is not easy to summarize.
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| 3. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of automated driving technology
- 2022
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Ingår i: Transportation planning and technology (Print). - : Taylor & Francis. - 0308-1060 .- 1029-0354. ; 45:7, s. 545-572
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Numerous studies have studied the impacts of automated driving (AD) technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for AD bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of AD technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas largely neglected. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of AD technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of AD technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors.
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| 4. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of self-driving technology
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Numerous studies have studied the impacts of self-driving technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts, and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for self-driving bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of self-driving technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas neglected by most frameworks. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of self-driving technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of self-driving technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Who continued travelling by public transport during COVID-19? : Socioeconomic factors explaining travel behaviour in Stockholm 2020 based on smart card data
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Transport Research Review. - : Springer Nature. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 13:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden, for the spring and autumn of 2020. We suggest two binomial logit models for explaining the change in travel pattern, linking socioeconomic data per area and travel data with the probability to stop travelling. Modelled variables The first model investigates the impact of the socioeconomic factors: age; income; education level; gender; housing type; population density; country of origin; and employment level. The results show that decreases in public transport use are linked to all these factors. The second model groups the investigated areas into five distinct clusters based on the socioeconomic data, showing the impacts for different socioeconomic groups. During the autumn the differences between the groups diminished, and especially Cluster 1 (with the lowest education levels, lowest income and highest share of immigrants) reduced their public transport use to a similar level as the more affluent clusters. Results The results show that socioeconomic status affect the change in behaviour during the pandemic and that exposure to the virus is determined by citizens' socioeconomic class. Furthermore, the results can guide policy into tailoring public transport supply to where the need is, instead of assuming that e.g. crowding is equally distributed within the public transport system in the event of a pandemic.
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| 7. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Who is still travelling by public transport during COVID-19? : Socioeconomic factors explaining travel behaviour in Stockholm based on smart card data
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden. We suggest two models for explaining the change in travel pattern, linking socioeconomic data with the probability to stop travelling. We find that education level, income and age are strong predictors, but that workplace type also substantially affect the propensity of public transport travel. Furthermore, we use clustering to divide the population into five separate social groups, serving as a more intuitive understanding of how the pandemic has affected different citizens’ propensity to use public transport. The results can guide policy makers on how to better tail e.g. bus supply to local demand, either through an increased understanding of differences based on the results or by further incorporating the results into a transport simulation models.
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| 8. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? : Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 165, s. 1-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres.We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the 'productive work trip' as self-driving technology's main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology had a limited impact on ridership.These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.
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| 9. |
- Almlöf, Erik, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to everyone. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres. We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the ‘productive work trip’ as self-driving technology’s main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology has a limited impact on ridership. These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.
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| 10. |
- Jenelius, Erik, Docent, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamiska trängselindex
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Under det senaste decenniet har nya datakällor, så som GPS‐data från taxibilar och storskaliga system av fasta detektorer, gett betydligt större möjligheter att kartlägga hur trängseln varierar i en stad, d.v.s. variation mellan gator och områden, olika tidpunkter på dagen och mellan olika månader eller år.På den teoretiska sidan har det, under ungefär samma tidsperiod, upptäckts ett samband mellan fordonstäthet och hastighet på områdesnivå, vilket kallas det makroskopiska fundamentaldiagrammet (MFD). Tidigare har detta samband uppmätts på länknivå och kallas då fundamentaldiagram (FD). MFD kopplar samman antalet fordon i ett område med den genomsnittliga hastigheten ellerflödet i området. Man har också visat att MFD under ideala förhållanden är enegenskap hos nätverket i sig (infrastruktur och trafikstyrning), d.v.s. det beror inte på efterfrågan.I denna rapport använder vi dessa nya trafikmätningsmetoder och teoretiska framsteg inom MFD för två syften. För det första beskriver vi hur trängseln varierar över dagen på Södermalm och i City‐området i Stockholm genom att titta på MFD från empiriska datakällor så som GPS‐data från taxi‐bilar, slangmätningar och restidskameror. För det andra jämför vi simulerat MFD för City‐området med empiriskt MFD för samma område. Detta för att validera hurväl City‐modellen framtagen med simuleringsverktyget Transmodeler kan återskapa trängselsituationen på områdesnivå.Rapporten visar att väldefinierade MFD existerar både för Södermalm och Cityområdet.MFD visar att hastigheten sjunker och fordonstätheten ökar undermorgonens och eftermiddagens rusningstimmar, men trängselnivåerna når inte den punkt där flödet börjar avta trots att fordonstätheten ökar (hyperträngsel). Det är således trångt i innerstaden under rusningstimmarna, men kapaciteten i nätverket räcker ändå till. De två stora lederna Stadsgårdsleden och Sveavägen visar dock tecken på hyperträngsel om fundamentaldiagram skapas separat för dessa leder.Vidare visar rapporten att MFD har stor potential som verktyg för att valideraen simuleringsmodell. I rapporten jämförs MFD från City‐området i Transmodeler med empirisk MFD för samma område. Simuleringsmodellen överskattar flöde och hastighet vid låg densitet. Vid hög densitet ändras dockbilden och simuleringsresultaten underskattar flöde och hastighet. Det verkarsom att kapaciteten i nätverket underskattas, vilket ger högre trängsel imodellen än i mätdata. MFD från Transmodeller visar lägre flöden underavvecklingen av rusningen än under uppbyggnaden, både under förmiddag och eftermiddag, vilket inte syns i de empiriska data. Detta tyder på att det finns stora kö‐problem i simuleringsmodellen, vilket man inte ser tecken på i empiriskt MFD.
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