| 1. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 2. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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| 3. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 4. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. EHT and Multiwavelength Observations, Data Processing, and Calibration
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 930:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm measurements of the radio source located at the position of the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), collected during the 2017 April 5-11 campaign. The observations were carried out with eight facilities at six locations across the globe. Novel calibration methods are employed to account for Sgr A*'s flux variability. The majority of the 1.3 mm emission arises from horizon scales, where intrinsic structural source variability is detected on timescales of minutes to hours. The effects of interstellar scattering on the image and its variability are found to be subdominant to intrinsic source structure. The calibrated visibility amplitudes, particularly the locations of the visibility minima, are broadly consistent with a blurred ring with a diameter of similar to 50 mu as, as determined in later works in this series. Contemporaneous multiwavelength monitoring of Sgr A* was performed at 22, 43, and 86 GHz and at near-infrared and X-ray wavelengths. Several X-ray flares from Sgr A* are detected by Chandra, one at low significance jointly with Swift on 2017 April 7 and the other at higher significance jointly with NuSTAR on 2017 April 11. The brighter April 11 flare is not observed simultaneously by the EHT but is followed by a significant increase in millimeter flux variability immediately after the X-ray outburst, indicating a likely connection in the emission physics near the event horizon. We compare Sgr A*'s broadband flux during the EHT campaign to its historical spectral energy distribution and find that both the quiescent emission and flare emission are consistent with its long-term behavior.
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| 5. |
- Azulay, R., et al.
(författare)
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Dynamical masses of the low-mass stellar binary AB Doradus B
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 578, s. Art. no. A16-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. AB Doradus is the main system of the AB Doradus moving group. It is a quadruple system formed by two widely separated binaries of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars: AB Dor A/C and AB Dor Ba/Bb. The pair AB Dor A/C has been extensively studied and its dynamical masses have been determined with high precision, thus making AB Dor C a benchmark for calibrating PMS stellar models. If the orbit and dynamical masses of the pair AB Dor Ba/Bb could be determined, they could play a similar role to that of AB Dor C in calibrating PMS models, and would also help to better understand the dynamics of the whole AB Doradus system. Aims. We aim to determine the individual masses of the pair AB Dor Ba/Bb using VLBI observations and archive infrared data as part of a larger program that monitors binary systems in the AB Doradus moving group. Methods. We observed the system AB Dor B between 2007 and 2013 with the Australian Long Baseline Array (LBA) at a frequency of 8.4 GHz in phase-reference mode. Results. We detected, for the first time, compact radio emission from both stars in the binary, AB Dor Ba and AB Dor Bb. This result allowed us to determine the orbital parameters of both the relative and absolute orbits and, consequently, their individual dynamical masses: 0.28 ± 0.05 M⊙ and 0.25 ± 0.05 M⊙, respectively. Conclusions. Comparisons of the dynamical masses with the prediction of PMS evolutionary models show that the models underpredict the dynamical masses of the binary components Ba and Bb by 10-30% and 10-40%, respectively, although they still agree at the 2σ level. Some of the stellar models considered favor an age between 50 and 100 Myr for this system, while others predict older ages. We also discuss the evolutionary status of AB Dor Ba/Bb in terms of an earlier double-double star scenario that might explain the strong radio emission detected in both components.
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| 6. |
- Azulay, R., et al.
(författare)
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The AB Doradus system revisited: The dynamical mass of ABDor A/C
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 607
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The study of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars with model-independent measurements of their masses is essential to check the validity of theoretical models of stellar evolution. The well-known PMS binary ABDorA/C is an important benchmark for this task, since it displays intense and compact radio emission, which makes possible the application of high-precision astrometric techniques to this system. Aims. We aim to revisit the dynamical masses of the components of ABDorA/C to refine earlier comparisons between the measurements of stellar parameters and the predictions of stellar models. Methods. We observed in phase-reference mode the binary AB DorA/C, 0.2 '' separation, with the Australian Long Baseline Array at 8.4 GHz. The astrometric information resulting from our observations was analyzed along with previously reported VLBI, optical (Hipparcos), and infrared measurements. Results. The main star ABDorA is clearly detected in all the VLBI observations, which allowed us to analyze the orbital motion of the system and to obtain model-independent dynamical masses of 0.90 +/- 0.08 M circle dot and 0.090 +/- 0.008 M circle dot, for ABDorA and ABDor C, respectively. Comparisons with PMS stellar evolution models favor and age of 40 50 Myr for ABDorA and of 25-120 Myr for ABDor C. Conclusions. We show that the orbital motion of the ABDorA/C system is remarkably well determined, leading to precise estimates of the dynamical masses. Comparison of our results with the prediction of evolutionary models support the observational evidence that theoretical models tend to slightly underestimate the mass of the low-mass stars.
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| 7. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Fuentes–Andino, Diana, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information
- 2017
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1812-2108 .- 1812-2116 .- 1607-7938. ; 21:7, s. 3597-3618
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Postevent data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90% of the observed highwater marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e. g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge net-work. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - Oxon : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:5, s. 842-853
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.
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| 12. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Sub-daily runoff predictions using parameters calibrated on the basis of data with a daily temporal resolution
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 550, s. 399-411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Concentration times in small and medium-sized basins (similar to 10-1000 km(2)) are commonly less than 24 h. Flood-forecasting models are thus required to provide simulations at high temporal resolutions (1 h-6 h), although time-series of input and runoff data with sufficient lengths are often only available at the daily temporal resolution, especially in developing countries. This has led to study the relationships of estimated parameter values at the temporal resolutions where they are needed from the temporal resolutions where they are available. This study presents a methodology to treat empirically model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data in two small basins using a bucket-type hydrological model, HBV-light, and the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation approach for selecting its parameters. To avoid artefacts due to the numerical resolution or numerical method of the differential equations within the model, the model was consistently run using modelling time steps of one-hour regardless of the temporal resolution of the rainfall-runoff data. The distribution of the parameters calibrated at several temporal resolutions in the two basins did not show model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data and the direct transferability of calibrated parameter sets (e.g., daily) for runoff simulations at other temporal resolutions for which they were not calibrated (e.g., 3 h or 6 h) resulted in a moderate (if any) decrease in model performance, in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe and volume-error efficiencies. The results of this study indicate that if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible with model-parameter values calibrated from long time series of daily data. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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| 13. |
- Reynolds, J. Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Definitions of climatological and discharge days : do they matter in hydrological modelling?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63:5, s. 836-844
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The performance of hydrological models is affected by uncertainty related to observed climatological and discharge data. Although the latter has been widely investigated, the effects on hydrological models from different starting times of the day have received little interest. In this study, observational data from one tropical basin were used to investigate the effects on a typical bucket-type hydrological model, the HBV, when the definitions of the climatological and discharge days are changed. An optimization procedure based on a genetic algorithm was used to assess the effects on model performance. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies varied considerably between day definitions, with the largest dependence on the climatological-day definition. The variation was likely caused by how storm water was assigned to one or two daily rainfall values depending on the definition of the climatological day. Hydrological models are unlikely to predict high flows accurately if rainfall intensities are reduced because of the day definition.
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| 14. |
- Reynolds, J. Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:9, s. 1512-1524
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts.
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| 15. |
- Reynolds Puga, José Eduardo, 1982-
(författare)
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Flood Prediction in data-scarce basins : Maximising the value of limited hydro-meteorological data
- 2019
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Floods pose a threat to society that can cause large socio-economic damages and loss of life in many parts of the world. Flood-forecasting models are required to provide simulations at temporal resolutions higher than a day in basins with concentration times smaller than 24 h. However, data at such resolutions are commonly limited or not available, especially in developing or low-income countries. This thesis covers issues related to the scarcity and lack of high temporal-resolution hydro-meteorological data and explores methods where the value of existing data is maximised to improve flood prediction.By varying the starting time of daily records (the day definition), it was shown that this definition had large implications on model calibration and runoff simulation and therefore, should be considered in regionalisation and flood-forecasting applications. A method was developed to treat empirically model-parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data. Model parameters seemed to become independent of the temporal resolution of data when the modelling time-step was sufficiently small. Thus, if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible using model-parameter values calibrated from time series of daily data. A new calibration method using only a few event hydrographs could improve flood prediction compared to a scenario with no discharge data. Two event hydrographs may be sufficient for calibration, but accuracy and reduction in uncertainty may improve if data on more events can be acquired. Using flood events above a threshold with a high frequency of occurrence for calibration may be as useful for flood prediction as using only extreme events with a low frequency of occurrence. The accuracy of the rainfall forecasts strongly influenced the predictive performance of a flood model calibrated with limited discharge data. Between volume and duration errors of the rainfall forecast, the former had the larger impact on model performance.The methods previously described proved to be useful for predicting floods and are expected to support flood-risk assessment and decision making during the occurrence of floods in data-scarce regions. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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