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- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Aran, A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for local particle acceleration in the first recurrent galactic cosmic ray depression observed by Solar Orbiter : The ion event on 19 June 2020
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 656
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. In mid-June 2020, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) mission reached its first perihelion at 0.51 au and started its cruise phase, with most of the in situ instruments operating continuously.Aims. We present the in situ particle measurements of the first proton event observed after the first perihelion obtained by the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) suite on board SolO. The potential solar and interplanetary (IP) sources of these particles are investigated.Methods. Ion observations from similar to 20 keV to similar to 1 MeV are combined with available solar wind data from the Radio and Plasma Waves (RPW) instrument and magnetic field data from the magnetometer on board SolO to evaluate the energetic particle transport conditions and infer the possible acceleration mechanisms through which particles gain energy. We compare > 17-20 MeV ion count rate measurements for two solar rotations, along with the solar wind plasma data available from the Solar Wind Analyser (SWA) and RPW instruments, in order to infer the origin of the observed galactic cosmic ray (GCR) depressions.Results. The lack of an observed electron event and of velocity dispersion at various low-energy ion channels and the observed IP structure indicate a local IP source for the low-energy particles. From the analysis of the anisotropy of particle intensities, we conclude that the low-energy ions were most likely accelerated via a local second-order Fermi process. The observed GCR decrease on 19 June, together with the 51.8-1034.0 keV nuc(-1) ion enhancement, was due to a solar wind stream interaction region (SIR). The observation of a similar GCR decrease in the next solar rotation favours this interpretation and constitutes the first observation of a recurrent GCR decrease by SolO. The analysis of the recurrence times of this SIR suggests that it is the same SIR responsible for the He-4 events previously measured in April and May. Finally, we point out that an IP structure more complex than a common SIR cannot be discarded, mainly due to the lack of solar wind temperature measurements and the lack of a higher cadence of solar wind velocity observations.
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| 5. |
- Mandt, K. E., et al.
(författare)
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RPC observation of the development and evolution of plasma interaction boundaries at 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko
- 2016
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 462, s. S9-S22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the primary objectives of the Rosetta Plasma Consortium, a suite of five plasma instruments on-board the Rosetta spacecraft, is to observe the formation and evolution of plasma interaction regions at the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/CG). Observations made between 2015 April and 2016 February show that solar wind-cometary plasma interaction boundaries and regions formed around 2015 mid-April and lasted through early 2016 January. At least two regions were observed, separated by an ion-neutral collisionopause boundary. The inner region was located on the nucleus side of the boundary and was characterized by low-energy water-group ions, reduced magnetic field pileup and enhanced electron densities. The outer region was located outside of the boundary and was characterized by reduced electron densities, water-group ions that are accelerated to energies above 100 eV and enhanced magnetic field pileup compared to the inner region. The boundary discussed here is outside of the diamagnetic cavity and shows characteristics similar to observations made on-board the Giotto spacecraft in the ion pileup region at 1P/Halley. We find that the boundary is likely to be related to ion-neutral collisions and that its location is influenced by variability in the neutral density and the solar wind dynamic pressure.
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| 8. |
- Wright, Gillian, et al.
(författare)
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The Mid-infrared Instrument for JWST and Its In-flight Performance
- 2023
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 135:1046
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) extends the reach of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to 28.5 μm. It provides subarcsecond-resolution imaging, high sensitivity coronagraphy, and spectroscopy at resolutions of λ/Δλ ∼ 100-3500, with the high-resolution mode employing an integral field unit to provide spatial data cubes. The resulting broad suite of capabilities will enable huge advances in studies over this wavelength range. This overview describes the history of acquiring this capability for JWST. It discusses the basic attributes of the instrument optics, the detector arrays, and the cryocooler that keeps everything at approximately 7 K. It gives a short description of the data pipeline and of the instrument performance demonstrated during JWST commissioning. The bottom line is that the telescope and MIRI are both operating to the standards set by pre-launch predictions, and all of the MIRI capabilities are operating at, or even a bit better than, the level that had been expected. The paper is also designed to act as a roadmap to more detailed papers on different aspects of MIRI.
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| 10. |
- Sims, Mark R., et al.
(författare)
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Development status of life marker chip for ExoMars
- 2012
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Ingår i: Planetary and Space Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0032-0633 .- 1873-5088. ; 72:1, s. 129-137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Life Marker Chip (LMC) is one of the instruments being developed for possible flight on the 2018 ExoMars mission. The instrument uses solvents to extract organic compounds from samples of martian regolith and to transfer the extracts to dedicated detectors based around the use of antibodies. The scientific aims of the instrument are to detect organics in the form of biomarkers that might be associated with extinct life, extant life or abiotic sources of organics. The instrument relies on a novel surfactant-based solvent system and bespoke, commercial and research-developed antibodies against a number of distinct biomarkers or molecular types. The LMC comprises of a number of subsystems designed to accept up to four discrete samples of martian regolith or crushed rock, implement the solvent extraction, perform microfluidic-based multiplexed antibody-assays for biomarkers and other targets, optically detect the fluorescent output of the assays, control the internal instrument pressure and temperature, in addition to the associated instrument control electronics and software. The principle of operation, the design and the instrument development status as of December 2011 are reported here. The instrument principle can be extended to other configurations and missions as needed.
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