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21.
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23.
  • Davies, C, et al. (författare)
  • Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen : patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 378:9793, s. 771-784
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. METHODS: We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21,457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment. FINDINGS: In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10,645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0·53 [SE 0·03] during years 0-4 and RR 0·68 [0·06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0·00001]; but RR 0·97 [0·10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0·67 [0·08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0·71 [0·05] during years 0-4, 0·66 [0·05] during years 5-9, and 0·68 [0·08] during years 10-14; p<0·0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality. INTERPRETATION: 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council.
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26.
  • Dieleman, J., et al. (författare)
  • Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 1981-2004
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends. Methods: We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development. Findings: Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3.0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5.9) and lower-middle-income groups (5.0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4.6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59.2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29.1% and 58.0% of spending was OOP spending and 35.7% and 3.0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1.8%, and reached US$37.6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount. Interpretation: Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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27.
  • Dieleman, J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 2005-2030
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to $24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. © The Author(s).
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28.
  • Edqvist, Malin, et al. (författare)
  • The effect of two midwives during the second stage of labour to reduce severe perineal trauma (Oneplus) : a multicentre, randomised controlled trial in Sweden
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 399:10331, s. 1242-1253
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Severe perineal trauma (SPT) affecting the anal sphincter muscle complex is a serious complication following childbirth, associated with short-term and long-term maternal morbidity. Effective preventive strategies are still scarce. The aim of the Oneplus trial was to test the hypothesis that the presence of a second midwife during the second stage of labour, with the purpose of preventing SPT, would result in fewer injuries affecting the anal sphincter than if attended by one midwife.METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, controlled parallel group, unmasked trial done at five obstetric units in Sweden, women were randomly assigned to be assisted by either one or two midwives in late second stage. Nulliparous women and women planning the first vaginal birth after caesarean section who were age 18-47 years were randomly assigned to an intervention when reaching the second stage of labour. Further inclusion criteria were gestational week 37+0, carrying a singleton live fetus in vertex presentation, and proficiency in either Swedish, English, Arabic, or Farsi. Exclusion criteria were a multiple pregnancy, intrauterine fetal demise, a planned caesarean section, or women who were less than 37 weeks pregnant. Randomisation to the intervention group of two midwives or standard care group of one midwife (1:1) was done using a computer-based program and treatment groups were allocated by use of sealed opaque envelopes. All women and midwives were aware of the group assignment, but the statistician from Clinical Studies Forum South, who did the analyses, was masked to group assignment. Midwives were instructed to implement existing prevention models and the second midwife was to assist on instruction of the primary midwife, when asked. Midwives were also instructed to complete case report forms detailing assistance techniques and perineal trauma prevention techniques. The primary outcome was the proportion of women who had SPT, for which odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated, and logistic regression was done to adjust for study site. All analyses were done according to intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT0377096.FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2018, and March 21, 2020, 8866 women were assessed for eligibility, and 4264 met the inclusion criteria and agreed to participate. 3776 (88·5%) of 4264 women were randomly assigned to an intervention after reaching the second stage of labour. 1892 women were assigned to collegial assistance (two midwives) during the second stage of labour and 1884 women were assigned to standard care (one midwife). 13 women in each group did not meet the inclusion criteria and were excluded. After further exclusions, 1546 women spontaneously gave birth in the intervention group and 1513 in the standard care group. 1546 women in the intervention group and 1513 in the standard care group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome. There was a significant reduction in SPT in the intervention group (3·9% [61 of 1546] vs 5·7% [86 of 1513]; adjusted OR 0·69 (0·49-0·97).INTERPRETATION: The presence of two midwives during the active second stage can reduce SPT in women giving birth for the first time.
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29.
  • Erlinge, David, et al. (författare)
  • Identification of vulnerable plaques and patients by intracoronary near-infrared spectroscopy and ultrasound (PROSPECT II) : a prospective natural history study
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 397:10278, s. 985-995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and intravascular ultrasound are promising imaging modalities to identify non-obstructive plaques likely to cause coronary-related events. We aimed to assess whether combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound can identify high-risk plaques and patients that are at risk for future major adverse cardiac events (MACEs).Methods: PROSPECT II is an investigator-sponsored, multicentre, prospective natural history study done at 14 university hospitals and two community hospitals in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. We recruited patients of any age with recent (within past 4 weeks) myocardial infarction. After treatment of all flow-limiting coronary lesions, three-vessel imaging was done with a combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound catheter. Untreated lesions (also known as non-culprit lesions) were identified by intravascular ultrasound and their lipid content was assessed by NIRS. The primary outcome was the covariate-adjusted rate of MACEs (the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or progressive angina) arising from untreated non-culprit lesions during follow-up. The relations between plaques with high lipid content, large plaque burden, and small lumen areas and patient-level and lesion-level events were determined. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02171065.Findings: Between June 10, 2014, and Dec 20, 2017, 3629 non-culprit lesions were characterised in 898 patients (153 [17%] women, 745 [83%] men; median age 63 [IQR 55-70] years). Median follow-up was 3.7 (IQR 3.0-4.4) years. Adverse events within 4 years occurred in 112 (13.2%, 95% CI 11.0-15.6) of 898 patients, with 66 (8.0%, 95% CI 6.2-10.0) arising from 78 untreated non-culprit lesions (mean baseline angiographic diameter stenosis 46.9% [SD 15.9]). Highly lipidic lesions (851 [24%] of 3500 lesions, present in 520 [59%] of 884 patients) were an independent predictor of patient-level non-culprit lesion-related MACEs (adjusted odds ratio 2.27, 95% CI 1.25-4.13) and nonculprit lesion-specific MACEs (7.83, 4.12-14.89). Large plaque burden (787 [22%] of 3629 lesions, present in 530 [59%] of 898 patients) was also an independent predictor of non-culprit lesion-related MACEs. Lesions with both large plaque burden by intravascular ultrasound and large lipid-rich cores by NIRS had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 7.0% (95% CI 4.0-10.0). Patients in whom one or more such lesions were identified had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 13.2% (95% CI 9.4-17.6).Interpretation: Combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound detects angiographically non-obstructive lesions with a high lipid content and large plaque burden that are at increased risk for future adverse cardiac outcomes.
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30.
  • Figtree, Gemma A., et al. (författare)
  • Mortality in STEMI patients without standard modifiable risk factors : a sex-disaggregated analysis of SWEDEHEART registry data
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 397:10279, s. 1085-1094
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background In cardiovascular disease, prevention strategies targeting standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs; hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking) are crucial; however, myocardial infarction in the absence of SMuRFs is not infrequent. The outcomes of individuals without SMuRFs are not well known. Methods We retrospectively analysed adult patients with first-presentation ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using data from the Swedish myocardial infarction registry SWEDEHEART. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of adult patients (age >= 18 years) with and without SMuRFs were examined overall and by sex. Patients with a known history of coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days after STEMI presentation. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular mortality, heart failure, and myocardial infarction at 30 days. Endpoints were also examined up to discharge, and to the end of a 12-year follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare in-hospital mortality, and Cox-proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis for long-term outcomes. Findings Between Jan 1, 2005, and May 25, 2018, 9228 (14.9%) of 62 048 patients with STEMI had no SMuRFs reaching diagnostic thresholds. Median age was similar between patients with SMuRFs and patients without SMuRFs (68 years [IQR 59-78]) vs 69 years [60-78], p<0.0001). SMuRF-less patients had a similar rate of percutaneous coronary intervention to those with at least one modifiable risk factor, but were significantly less likely to receive statins, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockade (ARB), or beta-blockers at discharge. By 30 days after presentation, all-cause mortality was significantly higher in SMuRF-less patients (hazard ratio 1.47 [95% CI 1.37-1.57], p<0.0001). SMuRF-less women had the highest 30-day mortality (381 [17.6%] of 2164), followed by women with SMuRFs (2032 [11.1%] of 18 220), SMuRF-less men (660 [9.3%] of 7064), and men with SMuRFs (2117 [6.1%] of 34 600). The increased risk of 30-day all-cause mortality in SMuRF-less patients remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, creatinine, and blood pressure, but was attenuated on inclusion of pharmacotherapy prescription (ACEI or ARB, beta-blocker, or statin) at discharge. Additionally, SMuRF-less patients had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital all-cause mortality than patients with one or more SMuRF (883 [9.6%] vs 3411 [6.5%], p<0.0001). Myocardial infarction and heart failure at 30 days were lower in SMuRF-less patients. All-cause mortality remained increased in the SMuRF-less group for more than 8 years in men and up to the 12-year endpoint in women. Interpretation Individuals who present with STEMI in the absence of SMuRFs have a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, compared with those with at least one SMuRF, which was particularly evident in women. The increased early mortality rates are attenuated after adjustment for use of guideline-indicated treatments, highlighting the need for evidence-based pharmacotherapy during the immediate post-infarct period irrespective of perceived low risk. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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