| 11. |
- Soranno, Patricia A., et al.
(författare)
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LAGOS-NE : A multi-scaled geospatial and temporal database of lake ecological context and water quality for thousands of U.S. lakes
- 2017
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Ingår i: GigaScience. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-217X. ; 6:12, s. 1-22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the factors that affect water quality and the ecological services provided by freshwater ecosystems is an urgent global environmental issue. Predicting how water quality will respond to global changes not only requires water quality data, but also information about the ecological context of individual water bodies across broad spatial extents. Because lake water quality is usually sampled in limited geographic regions, often for limited time periods, assessing the environmental controls of water quality requires compilation of many data sets across broad regions and across time into an integrated database. LAGOS-NE accomplishes this goal for lakes in the northeastern-most 17 US states. LAGOS-NE contains data for 51101 lakes and reservoirs larger than 4 ha in 17 lake-rich US states. The database includes 3 datamodules for: lake location and physical characteristics for all lakes; ecological context (i.e., the land use, geologic, climatic, and hydrologic setting of lakes) for all lakes; and in situmeasurements of lake water quality for a subset of the lakes fromthe past 3 decades for approximately 2600–12 000 lakes depending on the variable. The database contains approximately 150000 measures of total phosphorus, 200 000 measures of chlorophyll, and 900 000 measures of Secchi depth. The water quality data were compiled from87 lake water quality data sets fromfederal, state, tribal, and non-profit agencies, university researchers, and citizen scientists. This database is one of the largest andmost comprehensive databases of its type because it includes both in situmeasurements and ecological context data. Because ecological context can be used to study a variety of other questions about lakes, streams, and wetlands, this database can also be used as the foundation for other studies of freshwaters at broad spatial and ecological scales
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| 12. |
- Siddiq, Afshan, et al.
(författare)
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A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of breast cancer identifies two novel susceptibility loci at 6q14 and 20q11
- 2012
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Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 21:24, s. 5373-5384
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of breast cancer defined by hormone receptor status have revealed loci contributing to susceptibility of estrogen receptor (ER)-negative subtypes. To identify additional genetic variants for ER-negative breast cancer, we conducted the largest meta-analysis of ER-negative disease to date, comprising 4754 ER-negative cases and 31 663 controls from three GWAS: NCI Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) (2188 ER-negative cases; 25 519 controls of European ancestry), Triple Negative Breast Cancer Consortium (TNBCC) (1562 triple negative cases; 3399 controls of European ancestry) and African American Breast Cancer Consortium (AABC) (1004 ER-negative cases; 2745 controls). We performed in silico replication of 86 SNPs at P 1 10(-5) in an additional 11 209 breast cancer cases (946 with ER-negative disease) and 16 057 controls of Japanese, Latino and European ancestry. We identified two novel loci for breast cancer at 20q11 and 6q14. SNP rs2284378 at 20q11 was associated with ER-negative breast cancer (combined two-stage OR 1.16; P 1.1 10(8)) but showed a weaker association with overall breast cancer (OR 1.08, P 1.3 10(6)) based on 17 869 cases and 43 745 controls and no association with ER-positive disease (OR 1.01, P 0.67) based on 9965 cases and 22 902 controls. Similarly, rs17530068 at 6q14 was associated with breast cancer (OR 1.12; P 1.1 10(9)), and with both ER-positive (OR 1.09; P 1.5 10(5)) and ER-negative (OR 1.16, P 2.5 10(7)) disease. We also confirmed three known loci associated with ER-negative (19p13) and both ER-negative and ER-positive breast cancer (6q25 and 12p11). Our results highlight the value of large-scale collaborative studies to identify novel breast cancer risk loci.
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| 13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 14. |
- Nichols, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:1, s. 88-106
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists.Methods: GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugarsweetened beverages).Findings: In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 7. 8-51.0), increased from 20.2 million (17. 4-23 5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1.7% (1.0-2.4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27.0 million, 95% UI 23 .3-31. 4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2.4 million (95% UI 2.1-2.8) deaths. Overall, 28.8 million (95% UI 24. 5-34. 0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6.4 million (95% UI 3 .4-10. 5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages.Interpretation: The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide.
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| 15. |
- Walker, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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Response diversity as a sustainability strategy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - 2398-9629.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.
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| 16. |
- Biggs, Reinette, et al.
(författare)
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Navigating the Back Loop : Fostering Social Innovation and Transformation in Ecosystem Management
- 2010
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 15:2, s. 9-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Addressing the environmental challenges of the 21st century requires substantial changes to the way modern society views and manages ecosystems. In particular, many authors contend that fundamental transformation of the largely sectoral, expert-centered ecosystem-management institutions of modern, Western societies is needed. There is increasing agreement that more adaptive, integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches, interlinked at multiple scales, would improve society's ability to sustainably manage complex social-ecological systems. Therefore, understanding processes of transformation, and factors that may enable transformation in ecosystem management, has become an active research area. We explore ecosystem-management transformations using a social-innovation framework. Based on three local-level case studies of transformation in freshwater management, we provide a pilot assessment of factors that may promote the emergence and adoption of integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches. Our analysis suggests that ongoing environmental degradation, increasing environmental awareness, and shifting societal values are creating fertile ground for the emergence and adoption of new approaches to ecosystem management. Based on the case studies we examined, we suggest that initiatives that foster environmental awareness and attachment to local ecosystems, develop capacity for social entrepreneurship in the environmental arena, promote dialogue between key stakeholders, and provide institutional support to new institutions may facilitate the emergence of integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches.
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| 17. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Accelerate Synthesis in Ecology and Environmental Sciences
- 2009
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Ingår i: BioScience. - : Oxford University Press. - 0006-3568 .- 1525-3244. ; 59:8, s. 699-701
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecology is a leading discipline in the synthesis of diverse knowledge. Ecologists have had considerable experience in bringing together diverse, multinational data sets, disciplines, and cultural perspectives to address a wide range of issues in basic and applied science. Now is the time to build on this foundation and invest in ecological synthesis through new national or international programs. While synthesis takes place through many mechanisms, including individual efforts, working groups, and research networks, centers are extraordinarily effective institutional settings for advancing synthesis projects.
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| 18. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Dancing on the volcano : social exploration in times of discontent
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Radical recent developments such as Brexit, the rise of extreme nationalism, the gilets jaunes, polarizing leaders, the Arab Spring, and fundamentalist movements are indications of societal discontent with the status quo. Other societal phenomena such as gender fluidity, veganism, and bartering are also associated with a perceived need to change. The context is the Anthropocene, a humandominated biosphere challenging the resilience of a livable planet. Such a broad set of developments may be interpreted in the light of new insights from theory of complex systems about what happens as resilience of the current pathway (societal organization as we know it) decreases. Rising fluctuations characterize a phase of uncertainty and exploration, potentially leading into a transition of the system toward a new pathway. We reflect on global changes that may contribute to social destabilization such as rising wealth concentration and environmental degradation and ask how responses may be understood from social-psychological forces such as the need for group identity and managing the terror of mortality. The emerging image is that of a society engaged in multifaceted experimentation. Maintaining such experimentation may help inspire novel pathways to desirable futures, but there is a risk of societies becoming trapped in backward-looking narratives that threaten long-term sustainable outcomes.
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| 19. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Ecosystem subsidies : Terrestrial support of aquatic food webs from C-13 addition to contrasting lakes
- 2005
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 86:10, s. 2737-2750
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-lake additions of dissolved inorganic C-13 were used to measure allochthony (the terrestrial contribution of organic carbon to aquatic consumers) in two unproductive lakes (Paul and Peter Lakes in 2001), a nutrient-enriched lake (Peter Lake in 2002), and a dystrophic lake (Tuesday Lake in 2002). Three kinds of dynamic models were used to estimate allochthony: a process-rich, dual-isotope flow model based on mass balances of two carbon isotopes in 12 carbon pools; simple univariate time-series models driven by observed time courses of delta(13)CO(2); and multivariate autoregression models that combined information from time series of delta(13)C in several interacting carbon pools. All three models gave similar estimates of allochthony. In the three experiments without nutrient enrichment, flows of terrestrial carbon to dissolved and particulate organic carbon, zooplankton, Chaoborus, and fishes were substantial. For example, terrestrial sources accounted for more than half the carbon flow to juvenile and adult largemouth bass, pumpkinseed sunfish, golden shiners, brook sticklebacks, and fathead minnows in the unenriched experiments. Allochthony was highest in the dystrophic lake and lowest in the nutrient-enriched lake. Nutrient enrichment of Peter Lake decreased allochthony of zooplankton from 0.34-0.48 to 0-0.12, and of fishes from 0.51-0.80 to 0.25-0.55. These experiments show that lake ecosystem carbon cycles, including carbon flows to consumers, are heavily subsidized by organic carbon from the surrounding landscape.
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| 20. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(författare)
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Program on ecosystem change and society : an international research strategy for integrated social-ecological systems
- 2012
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 4:1, s. 134-138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality and poverty. The vision of PECS is a world where human actions have transformed to achieve sustainable stewardship of social-ecological systems. The goal of PECS is to generate the scientific and policy-relevant knowledge of social-ecological dynamics needed to enable such a shift, including mitigation of poverty. PECS is a coordinating body for diverse independently funded research projects, not a funder of research. PECS research employs a range of transdisciplinary approaches and methods, with comparative, place-based research that is international in scope at the core.
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