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1.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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2.
  • Olsson, Bob, 1969, et al. (författare)
  • CSF and blood biomarkers for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. Neurology. - 1474-4465. ; 15:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Alzheimer's disease biomarkers are important for early diagnosis in routine clinical practice and research. Three core CSF biomarkers for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (Aβ42, T-tau, and P-tau) have been assessed in numerous studies, and several other Alzheimer's disease markers are emerging in the literature. However, there have been no comprehensive meta-analyses of their diagnostic performance. We systematically reviewed the literature for 15 biomarkers in both CSF and blood to assess which of these were most altered in Alzheimer's disease.
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3.
  • Aryal, Umesh R., 1973, et al. (författare)
  • Correlates of smoking susceptibility among adolescents in a peri-urban area of Nepal: a population-based cross-sectional study in the Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9716. ; 7, s. 1-14
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Susceptibility to smoking is defined as an absence of firm commitment not to smoke in the future or when offered a cigarette by best friends. Susceptibility begins in adolescence and is the first step in the transition to becoming an established smoker. Many scholars have hypothesized and studied whether psychosocial risk factors play a crucial role in preventing adolescent susceptibility to smoking or discourage susceptible adolescents from becoming established smokers. Our study examined sociodemographic and family and childhood environmental factors associated with smoking susceptibility among adolescents in a peri-urban area of Nepal. Design: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study during October-November 2011 in the Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site (JD-HDSS) located in a peri-urban area near Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal, where tobacco products are easily available. Trained local enumerators conducted face-to-face interviews with 352 respondents aged 14-16. We used stepwise logistic regression to assess sociodemographic and family and childhood environmental factors associated with smoking susceptibility. Results: The percentage of smoking susceptibility among respondents was 49.70% (95% CI: 44.49; 54.93). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that smoking susceptibility was associated with smoking by exposure of adolescents to pro-tobacco advertisements (AOR [adjusted odds ratio] = 2.49; 95% CI: 1.46-4.24), the teacher (2.45; 1.28-4.68), adolescents attending concerts/picnics (2.14; 1.13-4.04), and smoking by other family members/relatives (1.76; 1.05-2.95). Conclusions: Smoking susceptible adolescents are prevalent in the JD-HDSS, a peri-urban community of Nepal. Several family and childhood environmental factors increased susceptibility to smoking among Nepalese nonsmoking adolescents. Therefore, intervention efforts need to be focused on family and childhood environmental factors with emphasis on impact of role models smoking, refusal skills in social gatherings, and discussing harmful effects of smoking with family members and during gatherings with friends.
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4.
  • Aryal, Umesh R., 1973, et al. (författare)
  • Establishing a health demographic surveillance site in Bhaktapur district, Nepal : initial experiences and findings
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: BMC Research Notes. - : BioMed Central. - 1756-0500 .- 1756-0500. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: A health demographic surveillance system (HDSS) provides longitudinal data regarding health and demography in countries with coverage error and poor quality data on vital registration systems due to lack of public awareness, inadequate legal basis and limited use of data in health planning. The health system in Nepal, a low-income country, does not focus primarily on health registration, and does not conduct regular health data collection. This study aimed to initiate and establish the first HDSS in Nepal.RESULTS: We conducted a baseline survey in Jhaukhel and Duwakot, two villages in Bhaktapur district. The study surveyed 2,712 households comprising a total population of 13,669. The sex ratio in the study area was 101 males per 100 females and the average household size was 5. The crude birth and death rates were 9.7 and 3.9/1,000 population/year, respectively. About 11% of births occurred at home, and we found no mortality in infants and children less than 5 years of age. Various health problems were found commonly and some of them include respiratory problems (41.9%); headache, vertigo and dizziness (16.7%); bone and joint pain (14.4%); gastrointestinal problems (13.9%); heart disease, including hypertension (8.8%); accidents and injuries (2.9%); and diabetes mellitus (2.6%). The prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD) was 4.3% (95% CI: 3.83; 4.86) among individuals older than 30 years. Age-adjusted odds ratios showed that risk factors, such as sex, ethnic group, occupation and education, associated with NCD.CONCLUSION: Our baseline survey demonstrated that it is possible to collect accurate and reliable data in a village setting in Nepal, and this study successfully established an HDSS site. We determined that both maternal and child health are better in the surveillance site compared to the entire country. Risk factors associated with NCDs dominated morbidity and mortality patterns.
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5.
  • Aryal, Umesh R., 1973, et al. (författare)
  • Perceived risks and benefits of cigarette smoking among Nepalese adolescents: a population-based cross-sectional study.
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: BMC public health. - 1471-2458. ; 13
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The perceived risks and benefits of smoking may play an important role in determining adolescents' susceptibility to initiating smoking. Our study examined the perceived risks and benefits of smoking among adolescents who demonstrated susceptibility or non susceptibility to smoking initiation. METHODS: In October--November 2011, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Jhaukhel and Duwakot Villages in Nepal. Located in the mid-hills of Bhaktapur District, 13 kilometers east of Kathmandu, Jhaukhel and Duwakot represent the prototypical urbanizing villages that surround Nepal's major urban centers, where young people have easy access to tobacco products and are influenced by advertising. Jhaukhel and Duwakot had a total population of 13,669, of which 15% were smokers. Trained enumerators used a semi-structured questionnaire to interview 352 randomly selected 14- to 16-year-old adolescents. The enumerators asked the adolescents to estimate their likelihood (0%--100%) of experiencing various smoking-related risks and benefits in a hypothetical scenario. RESULTS: Principal component analysis extracted four perceived risk and benefit components, excluding addiction risk: (i) physical risk I (lung cancer, heart disease, wrinkles, bad colds) ;(ii) physical risk II (bad cough, bad breath, trouble breathing);(iii) social risk (getting into trouble, smelling like an ashtray); and (iv) social benefit(looking cool, feeling relaxed, becoming popular, and feeling grown-up). The adjusted odds ratio of susceptibility increased 1.20-fold with each increased quartile in perception of physical Risk I. Susceptibility to smoking was 0.27- and 0.90-fold less among adolescents who provided the highest estimates of physical Risk II and social risk, respectively. Similarly, susceptibility was 2.16-fold greater among adolescents who provided the highest estimates of addiction risk. Physical risk I, addiction risk, and social benefits of cigarette smoking related positively, and physical risk II and social risk related negatively, with susceptibility to smoking. CONCLUSION: To discourage or prevent adolescents from initiating smoking, future intervention programs should focus on communicating not only the health risks but also the social and addiction risks as well as counteract the social benefits of smoking.
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6.
  • Choulagai, Bishnu, et al. (författare)
  • Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site, Nepal: 2012 follow-up survey and use of skilled birth attendants
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9716. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Estimates of disease burden in Nepal are based on cross-sectional studies that provide inadequate epidemiological information to support public health decisions. This study compares the health and demographic indicators at the end of 2012 in the Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site (JD-HDSS) with the baseline conducted at the end of 2010. We also report on the use of skilled birth attendants (SBAs) and associated factors in the JD-HDSS at the follow-up point. Design: We used a structured questionnaire to survey 3,505 households in the JD-HDSS, Bhaktapur, Nepal. To investigate the use of SBAs, we interviewed 434 women who had delivered a baby within the prior 2 years. We compared demographic and health indicators at baseline and follow-up and assessed the association of SBA services with background variables. Results: Due to rising in-migration, the total population and number of households in the JD-HDSS increased (13,669 and 2,712 in 2010 vs. 16,918 and 3,505 in 2012). Self-reported morbidity decreased (11.1% vs. 7.1%, respectively), whereas accidents and injuries increased (2.9% vs. 6.5% of overall morbidity, respectively). At follow-up, the proportion of institutional delivery (93.1%) exceeded the national average (36%). Women who accessed antenatal care and used transport (e.g. bus, taxi, motorcycle) to reach a health facility were more likely to access institutional delivery. Conclusions: High in-migration increased the total population and number of households in the JD-HDSS, a peri-urban area where most health indicators exceed the national average. Major morbidity conditions (respiratory diseases, fever, gastrointestinal problems, and bone and joint problems) remain unchanged. Further investigation of reasons for increased proportion of accidents and injuries are recommended for their timely prevention. More than 90% of our respondents received adequate antenatal care and used institutional delivery, but only 13.2% accessed adequate postnatal care. Availability of transport and use of antenatal care was associated positively with institutional delivery.
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7.
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8.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1659-1724
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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9.
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10.
  • Povlsen, Lene, et al. (författare)
  • Adolescents' knowledge and opinions about smoking : a qualitative study from the Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site, Bhaktapur District, Nepal
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Adolescent Medicine and Health. - : Walter de Gruyter. - 0334-0139 .- 2191-0278. ; 30:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The use of tobacco products among adolescents in Southeast Asia represents a major public health burden. Two out of ten adolescents attending school are tobacco users and several factors influence them to initiate tobacco use. Most studies related to tobacco use are quantitative, whereas qualitative studies exploring adolescents' smoking behavior and their views, knowledge and experiences are scarce.OBJECTIVE: To gain a deep understanding of Nepalese adolescents' knowledge and opinions about smoking and reasons for smoking initiation.SUBJECTS: Adolescents from four secondary schools in the Bhaktapur district, Nepal.METHODS: Eight focus-group discussions were conducted with 71 adolescents aged 13-16 years and from grades 8-10. Data were analyzed using manifest qualitative content analysis.RESULTS: The participants knew that smoking represents health risks as well as socio-economic risks, but few described the addictive nature of tobacco and health risks related to passive smoking. Most participants related smoking initiation to the smoking behavior of peers and family members, but easy accessibility to cigarettes, ineffective rules and regulations, and exposure to passive smoking also created environments for smoking. Some expressed confidence to resist peer pressure and refuse to start smoking, but also expressed the need for prevention strategies in schools and for governmental initiatives, such as more strict implementation of tobacco control and regulations to prevent and reduce smoking.CONCLUSION: Curbing the tobacco epidemic in Nepal requires healthy public policies and multifaceted interventions to address the knowledge gap on health consequences associated with smoking among adolescents, teachers and parents/adults.
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