| 11. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
| 14. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
A comparison of drift wave stability in stellarator and tokamak geometry
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Physics of Plasmas. - : AIP Publishing. - 1070-664X .- 1089-7674. ; 9:5, s. 1629-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The influence of plasma geometry on the linear stability of electrostatic ion-temperature-gradient driven drift modes (ITG modes) is investigated. An advanced fluid model is used for the ions together with Boltzmann distributed electrons. The derived eigenvalue equation is solved numerically. A comparison is made between an H – 1NF [Fusion Technol. 17, 123 (1990)] like stellarator equilibrium, a numerical tokamak equilibrium and the analytical s - alpha equilibrium. The numerical and the analytical tokamak are found to be in good agreement in the low inverse aspect ratio limit. The growth rates of the tokamak and stellarator are comparable whereas the modulus of the real frequency is substantially larger in the stellarator. The threshold in Ln/LT for the stellarator is found to be somewhat larger. In addition, a stronger stabilization of the ITG mode growth is found for large L n / R in the stellarator case.
|
|
| 15. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
A fractional Fokker-Planck model for anomalous diffusion
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Physics of Plasmas. - : AIP Publishing. - 1089-7674 .- 1070-664X. ; 21:12, s. aricle no: 122109-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we present a study of anomalous diffusion using a Fokker-Planck description withfractional velocity derivatives. The distribution functions are found using numerical means forvarying degree of fractionality of the stable Lévy distribution. The statistical properties of thedistribution functions are assessed by a generalized normalized expectation measure and entropyin terms of Tsallis statistical mechanics. We find that the ratio of the generalized entropy andexpectation is increasing with decreasing fractionality towards the well known so-called sub-diffusivedomain, indicating a self-organising behavior.
|
|
| 16. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
A statistical approach to investigate plasma dynamics in gyrokinetic simulations of stellarator turbulence
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Physical Society. - 0003-0503. ; 64, s. 1-1
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Turbulent dynamics in stellarator plasmas is investigated by a geometrical method. Gyrokinetic simulations of ITG mode driven turbulence in the core-region of the stellarator W7-X, with realistic quasiisodynamic topologies using the GENE software are considered. The turbulent states are approximated by probability distribution functions where distances between thermodynamic states can be computed according the thermodynamic length methodology which allows the use of a Riemannian metric on the phase space. The geometric methodology is suitable in order to understand stochastic processes involved in e.g. order-disorder transition, where a sudden increase in distance is expected. In gyrokinetic plasma turbulence simulations avalanches, e.g. of heat and particles, are often found and in this work this novel method for detection is investigated. Previously [1,2] 1D versions have been investigated however this falls short in identification of coherent modes. The Hurst exponent, the Information Length and the Dynamic Time is computed from the 2D time series. Based on these measures the transport features of large scale modes can be investigated, identified by a sudden increase in information.
|
|
| 17. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Anomalous Diffusion by the Fractional Fokker-Planck Equation and Lévy Stable Processes
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Fractional Dynamics and Anomalous Transport in Plasma Science. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 9783030044824 ; , s. 77-92
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The work presented here is a review of current developments in modelling anomalous diffusion using a Fokker-Planck description with fractional velocity derivatives and Langevin dynamics where L´evy fluctuations are introduced to model the effect of non-local transport due to fractional diffusion in velocity space. Distribution functions are found using numerical means for varying degree of fractionality of the stable L´evy distribution as solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation and is compared to results from Langevin simulations. The statistical properties of the distribution functions are assessed by a generalized normalized expectation measure and entropy in terms of Tsallis statistical mechanics.
|
|
| 18. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Derivation and quantitative analysis of the differential self-interrogation Feynman-alpha method
- 2012
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal Plus. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2190-5444. ; 127:2, s. 1-6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A stochastic theory for a branching process in a neutron population with two energy levels is used to assess the applicability of the differential self-interrogation Feynman-alpha method by numerically estimated reaction intensities from Monte Carlo simulations. More specifically, the variance to mean or Feynman-alpha formula is applied to investigate the appearing exponentials using the numerically obtained reaction intensities.
|
|
| 19. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Derivation and quantitative analysis of the differential self-interrogation Feynman-alpha method
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Proceedings 52nd INMM Conference 17-21 July, Palm Desert, CA, USA (2011).
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A stochastic theory for a branching process in a neutronpopulation with two energy levels is used to assess theapplicability of the differential self-interrogation Feynman-alpha method by numerically estimated reaction intensities from Monte Carlo simulations. More specifically, the variance to mean or Feynman-alpha formula is applied to investigate the appearing exponentials using the numerically obtained reaction intensities.
|
|
| 20. |
- Anderson, Johan, 1973
(författare)
-
Drift Waves in General Toroidal Equilibria
- 2002
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- One of the main concerns in fusion research is to understand the anomalously high transport in magnetically confined plasmas. In recent years, substantial progress in the understanding of transport in terms of drift waves in fusion plasmas has been achieved. It is at present an important issue to investigate the stability of drift waves in realistic toroidal geometries. Among the drift wave candidates for explaining the anomalous transport are the toroidal ITG-modes in the core and the resistive ITG-modes and the resistive ballooning modes in the edge. The effects of plasma shaping on magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) modes have been thoroughly studied. However, the effects of plasma shaping on the drift waves are not well known. Empirically it is found that the overall effects of elongation on the energy confinement time is favorable with ~ kappa^0.5. In this thesis, the ITG-mode and the resistive edge mode stability in a non-circular tokamak geometry are studied. In particular, the effects of elongation and Shafranov shift are studied. In the core plasma a destabilization of the ITG-mode with increasing elongation is found whereas a stabilization is found in the edge region (or rather for peaked density profiles). Moreover, a comparison of the ITG-mode growth rates in the tokamak and stellarator equilibria is made. The growth rates for the tokamak and stellarator cases are comparable whereas the modulus of the real frequency is substantially larger in the stellarator. In addition, a stronger stabilization of the ITG mode growth is found for large Ln/R in the stellarator case. Finally, an analytical estimation of zonal flow generation including effects of elongation is presented. The results suggest that a strong excitation of zonal flows is obtained for peaked density profiles and close to marginal stability. However, in order draw more detailed conclusions of the effects of elongation on the global confinement time, a more extensive study using predictive transport simulations, which treats the edge and core transport processes self-consistently will be needed.
|
|
