| 91. |
- Greiser, Caroline, et al.
(author)
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Monthly microclimate models in a managed boreal forest landscape
- 2018
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In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 250-251, s. 147-158
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The majority of microclimate studies have been done in topographically complex landscapes to quantify and predict how near-ground temperatures vary as a function of terrain properties. However, in forests understory temperatures can be strongly influenced also by vegetation. We quantified the relative influence of vegetation features and physiography (topography and moisture-related variables) on understory temperatures in managed boreal forests in central Sweden. We used a multivariate regression approach to relate near-ground temperature of 203 loggers over the snow-free seasons in an area of ∼16,000 km2 to remotely sensed and on-site measured variables of forest structure and physiography. We produced climate grids of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures at 25 m resolution by using only remotely sensed and mapped predictors. The quality and predictions of the models containing only remotely sensed predictors (MAP models) were compared with the models containing also on-site measured predictors (OS models). Our data suggest that during the warm season, where landscape microclimate variability is largest, canopy cover and basal area were the most important microclimatic drivers for both minimum and maximum temperatures, while physiographic drivers (mainly elevation) dominated maximum temperatures during autumn and early winter. The MAP models were able to reproduce findings from the OS models but tended to underestimate high and overestimate low temperatures. Including important microclimatic drivers, particularly soil moisture, that are yet lacking in a mapped form should improve the microclimate maps. Because of the dynamic nature of managed forests, continuous updates of mapped forest structure parameters are needed to accurately predict temperatures. Our results suggest that forest management (e.g. stand size, structure and composition) and conservation may play a key role in amplifying or impeding the effects of climate-forcing factors on near-ground temperature and may locally modify the impact of global warming.
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| 92. |
- Greiser, Caroline, 1987-, et al.
(author)
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Southern margin of boreal bryophytes and lichens not directly limited by warmer temperatures
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Species at their warm range margin are potentially threatened by a warmer climate, but may escape regional warming in locally colder microclimates. We evaluated whether boreal understory bryophytes and lichens show signs of climate limitation, i.e. whether they perform better in cold and/or humid microclimates at their warm range margin. We transplanted a moss, a liverwort, and a lichen to 58 boreal forest sites with different microclimates at the species’ southern range margin in central Sweden. Species were grown in garden soil to exclude effects of competition and soil quality. We followed the transplants over three growing seasons (2016-2018) and modelled growth and vitality for each species and year as a function of sub-canopy temperature, soil moisture, air humidity and forest type. We expected a negative response to warmer temperatures and drier conditions if the species were directly climate-limited. Transplant performance increased with warmer temperatures and at sites with more conifers. Soil moisture had a positive effect, especially on the moss in the last year 2018, which was extremely hot and dry. The lichen was negatively affected only by gastropod grazing. The results indicate that competition, herbivory, leaf litter and water scarcity might be more important than temperature for performance at the species’ warm range margin. Forest microrefugia, habitats were these species could persist regional warming, may therefore mainly be sites with less competitors and enemies, and with sufficient moisture and more conifers in the overstory. Our study illustrates that transplant experiments are a powerful tool to study range dynamics and the multiple environmental factors that influence them. Our results also suggest that multi-year experiments are valuable for identifying potential range-limiting effects that occur only after some time, or under extreme weather conditions e.g. in very dry years.
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| 93. |
- Greiser, Caroline, et al.
(author)
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Warm range margin of boreal bryophytes and lichens not directly limited by temperatures
- 2021
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In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 109:10, s. 3724-3736
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Species at their warm range margin are potentially threatened by higher temperatures, but may persist in microrefugia. Whether such microsites occur due to more suitable microclimate or due to lower biotic pressure from, for example competitive species, is still not fully resolved. We examined whether boreal bryophytes and lichens show signs of direct climate limitation, that is whether they perform better in cold and/or humid microclimates at their warm range margin. We transplanted a moss, a liverwort and a lichen to 58 boreal forest sites with different microclimates at the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Species were grown in garden soil patches to control the effects of competitive exclusion and soil quality. We followed the transplanted species over three growing seasons (2016-2018) and modelled growth and vitality for each species as a function of subcanopy temperature, soil moisture, air humidity and forest type. In 2018, we also recorded the cover of other plants having recolonized the garden soil patches and modelled this potential future competition with the same environmental variables plus litter. Species performance increased with warmer temperatures, which was often conditional on high soil moisture, and at sites with more conifers. Soil moisture had a positive effect, especially on the moss in the last year 2018, when the growing season was exceptionally hot and dry. The lichen was mostly affected by gastropod grazing. Recolonization of other plants was also faster at warmer and moister sites. The results indicate that competition, herbivory, shading leaf litter and water scarcity might be more important than the direct effects of temperature for performance at the species' warm range margin. Synthesis. In a transplant experiment with three boreal understorey species, we did not find signs of direct temperature limitation towards the south. Forest microrefugia, that is habitats where these species could persist regional warming, may instead be sites with fewer competitors and enemies, and with sufficient moisture and more conifers in the overstorey.
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| 94. |
- Herben, T, et al.
(author)
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Longterm spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape : linking dynamical modelling with historical maps
- 2006
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In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 94:1, s. 131-143
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We attempt to explain the current distribution of a long-lived perennial plant, Succisa pratensis, in a rural landscape in southern Sweden by linking its population biology with documented changes in the landscape, using a dynamical, spatially explicit model incorporating population dynamics and spatial spreading of the plant. Changes in the landscape were inferred from historical maps (1850 and 1900) and aerial photographs (1945 and 2001). We tested whether predictions for the current species distribution are affected by assumptions about its early 19th century distribution, to determine whether recent history and current processes are dominant, and how past landscape changes determine current distributions. Initial conditions influence predictions of current distribution, suggesting that the current distribution still partly reflects the distribution of the species in the early 19th century. A period of 150 years is too short for Succisa to have spread extensively if dispersal parameters are given realistic values. Simulations in which present-day land-use patterns were imposed at earlier dates showed that changes in landscape structure over the past 175 years also had a strong effect on the present-day habitat occupancy and population sizes of Succisa. The dominant process for Succisanow is extinction from marginal habitats. It is therefore likely that the (relatively) high present-day occupation patterns are still due to much larger areas having been available in the past rather than to successful dispersal. Although the species has responded to landscape changes, there is little evidence of population sizes reaching equilibrium. Our approach shows that the wealth of landscape information available from historical maps can be linked with data on population biology by means of dynamical models that can make predictions about species dynamics.
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| 95. |
- Horvitz, Carol C., et al.
(author)
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Context-dependent pollinator limitation in stochastic environments : can increased seed set overpower the cost of reproduction in an understorey herb?
- 2010
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In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 98:2, s. 268-278
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 1. In the understorey herb Lathyrus vernus seed production is pollen limited, but increased reproduction results in a lower probability of remaining reproductive. Putting these two results together, previous research reported that population growth rate lambda was negatively impacted by high pollination. 2. Thus, costs and benefits have to be translated into the common currency of their respective effects on population dynamics to determine whether populations are truly pollen limited or whether they are already at an optimal level of pollination. 3. Also, when pollinators and demography vary from year to year we require a framework that examines reproductive benefits and demographic costs in the context of a variable environment. Whether or not additional pollination will increase the stochastic population growth rate lambda(S) depends upon the balance of stochastic elasticities of the costs and benefits. 4. In constant environment models, where seed survival, germination and seedling survival were increased, we found that the high cost of reproduction could be offset by improvements in seed survival and germination, but not by improvements of seedling survival. 5. In variable environment models, where changes in the sequence and frequencies of high- and low-pollination years mixed with occasional high-germination years were modelled, we found that increasing the frequency of high-germination conditions could offset the cost of reproduction, and the offset was even greater if high-germination years occurred after a high-pollination year or if high pollination was accompanied by high-germination conditions in the same year. 6. Both deterministic lambda and stochastic lambda(S) were less sensitive to perturbation of reproduction than to perturbation of the probability for flowering plants to remain reproductive. In other words, a small change in the parameter which is related to the 'cost' of reproduction had a bigger effect than a small change in the parameter which is related to the 'benefit' of increased pollination for Lathyrus. 7.Synthesis. Stochastic environment-specific elasticities for reproduction and stasis of flowering plants differ in their response to environmental context. The cost-benefit relationships, the ultimate fitness consequences of supplemental pollen, are influenced by the frequency and sequence of years differing in pollen availability and recruitment conditions.
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| 96. |
- Hylander, Kristoffer, et al.
(author)
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Microrefugia : Not for everyone
- 2015
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In: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 44, s. s60-S68
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.
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| 97. |
- Hylander, Kristoffer, et al.
(author)
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The mechanisms causing extinction debts
- 2013
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In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-5347 .- 1872-8383. ; 28:6, s. 341-346
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Extinction debts can result from many types of habitat changes involving mechanisms other than metapopulation processes. This is a fact that most recent literature on extinction debts pays little attention to. We argue that extinction debts can arise because (i) individuals survive in resistant life-cycle stages long after habitat quality change, (ii) stochastic extinctions of populations that have become small are not immediate, and (iii) metapopulations survive long after that connectivity has decreased if colonization-extinction dynamics is slow. A failure to distinguish between these different mechanisms and to simultaneously consider both the size of the extinction debt and the relaxation time hampers our understanding of how extinction debts arise and our ability to prevent ultimate extinctions.
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| 98. |
- Inouye, Brian D., et al.
(author)
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Phenology as a process rather than an event : from individual reaction norms to community metrics
- 2019
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In: Ecological Monographs. - : Wiley. - 0012-9615 .- 1557-7015. ; 89:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Measures of the seasonal timing of biological events are key to addressing questions about how phenology evolves, modifies species interactions, and mediates biological responses to climate change. Phenology is often characterized in terms of discrete events, such as a date of first flowering or arrival of first migrants. We discuss how phenological events that are typically measured at the population or species level arise from distributions of phenological events across seasons, and from norms of reaction of these phenological events across environments. We argue that individual variation in phenological distributions and reaction norms has important implications for how we should collect, analyze, and interpret phenological information. Regarding phenology as a reaction norm rather than one year's specific values implies that selection acts on the phenologies that an individual expresses over its lifetime. To understand how climate change is likely to influence phenology, we need to consider not only plastic responses along the reaction norm but changes in the reaction norm itself. We show that when individuals vary in their reaction norms, correlations between reaction norm elevation and slope make first events particularly poor estimators of population sensitivity to climate change, and variation in slopes can obscure the pattern of selection on phenology. We also show that knowing the shape of the distribution of phenological events across the season is important for predicting biologically important phenological mismatches with climate change. Last, because phenological events are parts of a continuous developmental process, we suggest that the approach of measuring phenology by recording developmental stages of individuals in a population at a single point in time should be used more widely. We conclude that failure to account for phenological distributions and reaction norms may lead to overinterpretation of metrics based on single events, such as commonly recorded first event dates, and may confound meta-analyses that use a range of metrics. Rather than prescribing a single universal approach to studying phenology, we point out limitations of inferences based on single metrics and encourage work that considers the multivariate nature of phenology and more tightly links data collection and analyses with biological hypotheses.
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| 99. |
- Isaeus, Martin, 1964-
(author)
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Factors structuring Fucus communities at open and complex coastlines in the Baltic Sea
- 2004
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This thesis deals with physical factors and biological interactions affecting the distribution of two fucoid species, Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus, in the Baltic Sea. Studies have been carried out in two quite different environments: an archipelago, and an open rocky coast. The archipelago has an extremely long coastline with a heterogeneous submerged landscape of different substrate types, slopes, water qualities, and degrees of wave exposure. The factors influencing F. vesiculosus distribution, morphology and epiphyte composition were studied in the Stockholm archipelago using field surveys and spatial modelling in Geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS-method to estimate wave exposure was developed and validated by comparing the result to an index based on vertical zonation of lichens. Wave exposure was considered an important factor for predicting the distribution of F. vesiculosus by its ability to clean hard surfaces from silt, and a predictive model was constructed based on the information of wave exposure and slope of the shore. It is suggested that the lower distribution boundary of attached F. vesiculosus is set by sediment in sheltered parts of the archipelago, and by light availability in highly wave exposed parts. The morphology of F. vesiculosus was studied over a wave exposure gradient, and several characters responded in accordance with earlier studies. However, when separating effects of wave exposure from effects of other confounding water property parameters, only thallus width was significantly different. Several water property parameters were shown to be correlated with wave exposure in the Stockholm archipelago, and the mechanism responsible for the effects on F. vesiculosus morphology is discussed. The composition of epiphytes on F. vesiculosus varied over a wave exposure gradient with a positive correlation to Elachista fucicola, and a negative to Chorda filum. At an open coast the physical environment is much less heterogeneous compared to an archipelago. The distributions of F. vesiculosus, F. serratus, turf-forming algae, and the seafloor substrate, were surveyed along the open coasts of Öland and Gotland. Turf-forming algae dominated all hard substrates in the area, and Polysiphonia fucoides was most abundant. At the Gotland coast F. vesiculosus was less abundant than at the Öland coast, and F. serratus occurred only in the southern-most part. Fucus serratus was increasingly more common towards south which was interpreted as an effect mainly of the Baltic salinity gradient, or the variation of salinity that has occurred in the past. The effects of turf-forming algae and sediment on F. serratus recruitment at 7 m depth off the Öland east coast were studied in the field, and by laboratory experiments. Almost no recruits were found in the algal turf outside the F. serratus patches. More fine sediment was found in the turf than in the F. serratus patches, suggesting that the turf accumulates sediment by decreasing resuspension. Both filamentous algae and sediment decreased the attachment ability of F. serratus zygotes and survival of recruits, and sediment had the strongest effect. It is therefore suggested that F. serratus has difficulties recruiting outside its patches, and that these difficulties are enforced by the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, which has favoured growth of filamentous algae and increased sedimentation. An overall conclusion is that Fucus distribution is affected by large-scale-factors, such as the eutrophication and salinity changes of the Baltic Sea, as well as by small-scale variation in wave exposure, substrate and slope, and by surface competition with neighbouring species.
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| 100. |
- Jonsson, Magnus, et al.
(author)
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Genetic divergence of climatically marginal populations of Vicia pisiformis on the Scandinavian Peninsula
- 2008
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In: Hereditas. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-0661 .- 1601-5223. ; 145:1, s. 1-8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Vicia pisiformis L. is a perennial leguminous plant with a main distribution in broadleaved forest-steppes of eastern Europe. The species is classified as endangered (EN) according to the IUCN red-lists in both Norway and Sweden, due to severe fragmentation, small population sizes and continuing population decline. The populations on the Scandinavian Peninsula constitute the northern limit of the species distribution and are mostly restricted to warm stony slopes with predominantly southern aspects. In this study we used the AFLP method, which is a high-resolution genetic fingerprint method. Samples were collected from 22 Scandinavian populations. The overall genetic structure was analysed in an AMOVA, in a Mantel test and through constrained correspondence analysis (CCA). The ordination scores representing non-geographic genetic divergence were extracted from the CCA and analysed in a linear model using habitat variables and population size as explanatory variables. We found (i) a strong geographic structure, (ii) significant genetic divergence between populations, (iii) that this genetic divergence remained significant even after removing the effect of geography in a partial CCA and (iv) that the remaining non-geographic part of genetic divergence (distance from the ordination centre) was associated with aspect, populations with a northern aspect were more genetically divergent. Aspect explains more variation than population size and is the only variable retained in the minimal adequate model. We suggest that local adaptation has caused this divergence from an expected geographical pattern of genetic variation. This explanation is further supported by the association between aspect and specific AFLP fragments. Many plant populations are relics of a different climate (Aguirre-Planter et al. 2000; Despres et al. 2002; Pico and Riba 2002). In response to long-term climate change, populations can either migrate towards a more favourable climate or adapt to the new conditions (delaVega 1996; Jump et al. 2006). Species with limited dispersal ability are at risk of reaching isolated dead-ends of decreasingly suitable habitat, without any suitable habitat within dispersal distance (Colas et al. 1997). Isolated populations have to use their inherent evolutionary potential and adapt to changes in environmental conditions, or they will go extinct. As population fragments go extinct, those that remain will become increasingly isolated from each other both spatially and also genetically as the level of gene flow declines with increasing distance. Such correlation between genetic dissimilarities and geographic distances, known as isolation by distance (Slatkin 1993; Wright 1943), when found, suggests a history of geographically limited gene flow (Kimura and Weiss 1964). On top of an isolation by distance pattern there might be other genetic structures to be found. Occasional long-distance dispersal events for example may disturb geographic patterns with puzzling allele distributions as a result (Nichols and Hewitt 1994). Genetic drift is a process that will affect any pattern of genetic variation in a random fashion. Local adaptation through natural selection is a process that, if sufficiently strong in comparison with gene flow and genetic drift, will create patterns where genetic differentiation is associated with certain environmental conditions (Wright 1951). Several studies have shown the importance of local adaptation of populations (reviewed by Kawecki and Ebert 2004) (see also Bonin et al. 2006; Knight and Miller 2004; Kolseth and Lönn 2005; Lönn et al. 1998). Local adaptation can be strong also at small spatial scales (Snaydon and Davies 1976; Lönn 1993) even though it is sometimes very limited in terms of the number of genes involved (Kärkkainen et al. 2004) Environmental variability provides a base for biological variation by imposing differentiated selection pressures resulting in local adaptation. Topography provides large environmental variation within a relatively small area and thereby provides a basis for small-scale local adaptations. Depending on the local topographic possibilities populations can either migrate up and down slopes or along the same altitude to a different aspect to find a suitable microclimate. The dispersal distance will be much shorter per degree of temperature change during altitudinal migration (Hewitt 1996), than during simple latitudinal migration across a flat landscape. Slope and aspect are two important topographic parameters that determine the influx level of solar radiation, especially towards the poles where the total global radiation decreases (Larcher 2003). Vicia pisiformis is an endangered poorly-dispersed long-lived forest herb with its main distribution across the semi-open broadleaved forest steppes of eastern Europe. The Scandinavian populations are believed to be climate relict populations from warmer times. Earlier genetic studies of V. pisiformis using allozymes, RAPD:s and morhology, have found low to very low levels of genetic variation (Gustafsson and Gustafsson 1994; Black-Samuelsson et al. 1997; Black-Samuelsson and Lascoux 1999). Therefore we used AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) markers, which detect even very small genetic differences between individuals. AFLP mainly analyse neutral variation, as the major fraction of most genomes is assumed to be neutral. However, since the AFLP-fragments are distributed randomly throughout the whole genome some fragments may be situated so close to regions under selection that they become more or less linked to them. This linkage disequilibrium between molecular markers and regions under selection, often referred to as quantitative trait loci (QTL), forms the basis for both QTL-mapping and marker assisted selection (MAS), reviewed by Dekkers and Hospital (2002). Gardner and Latta (2006) for example, found QTL under selection in both natural environments and in the greenhouse. Markers have been found to be connected to biomass production (Cavagnaro et al. 2006) and environmental variation (Bonin et al. 2006; Jump et al. 2006; Porcher et al. 2006). In this study we examine 22 Swedish and Norwegian populations of Vicia pisiformis and ask (i) if there is genetic differentiation between these populations, (ii) if there is can it be explained in its entirety by geographic location or (iii) can it partly be explained by habitat characteristics, suggesting local adaptation, or population size, suggesting genetic drift. We show that populations are differentiated geographically and that genetic variation in addition to the geographical pattern is associated with habitat.
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