| 11. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
-
Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
-
Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
|
|
| 12. |
- Pischon, T., et al.
(författare)
-
General and Abdominal Adiposity and Risk of Death in Europe
- 2008
-
Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793. ; 359:20, s. 2105-2120
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. METHODS We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height. RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-tohip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.
|
|
| 13. |
- Alves Dias, Joana, et al.
(författare)
-
Plasma variation and reproducibility of oxidized LDL-cholesterol and low-grade inflammation biomarkers among participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Biomarkers. - 1354-750X. ; 21:6, s. 562-571
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: Large epidemiological studies often collect non-fasting samples, although the reliability of biomarkers may be uncertain. Objective: To explore the reliability and reproducibility of a single measurement of selected biomarkers in a sub-sample of the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. Methods: We estimated single- and average-measures intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for oxidized (ox)-LDL, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α. Results: Single-measures ICC in non-fasting samples of ox-LDL, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α were the following: 0.85, 0.71, 0.61, 0.78 and 0.66 for men, and 0.67, 0.81, 0.87, 0.69 and 0.81 for women. Biomarkers at non-fasting and fasting samples were highly correlated (all r > 0.80). Conclusions: The observed ICC suggest that most of the examined biomarkers (non-fasting blood) would allow meaningful analysis in epidemiological studies.
|
|
| 14. |
- Anwaar, I., et al.
(författare)
-
Endothelial derived vasoactive factors and leukocyte derived inflammatory mediators in subjects with asymptomatic atherosclerosis
- 1998
-
Ingår i: Angiology. - : SAGE Publications. - 0003-3197 .- 1940-1574. ; 49:12, s. 957-966
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To clarify relationships between the (endothelial vasodilatory and vasoconstrictive function) and leukocyte inflammatory mediators in subjects with asymptomatic atherosclerosis, we measured (intraplatelet cyclic 3', 5' guanosine monophosphate [cGMP] and cyclic 3', 5' adenosine monophosphate [cAMP]), plasma endothelin (ET-1), and plasma neopterin in 197 subjects with asymptomatic atherosclerosis (median age 63 years, range 49-69 years). We measured neutrophil protease 4 (NP4), tumor necrosis factor (TNFμ), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1), and neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) in 152 of the 197 subjects. Intraplatelet cGMP correlated inversely with plasma ET-1 (r=-0.22; p=0.01), which confirms earlier in vitro data of the inhibitory effect of ET-1 on NO production and/or the cGMP mediated inhibitory effect of NO on ET-1 production. Plasma neopterin as well as NP4 correlated directly with intraplatelet cGMP (r=0.24; p<0.01 and r=0.33; p<0.001, respectively). Intraplatelet cAMP correlated directly with plasma TNFμ (r=0.17; p<0.05) and sTNFR-1 (r=0.20; p<0.05). The relationship between leukocyte derived inflammatory mediators and intraplatelet cyclic nucleotides suggest an antiaggregating effect of leukocytes upon platelets, which may constitute a negative feedback mechanism that inhibits platelet activation during the atherosclerotic inflammatory process.
|
|
| 15. |
|
|
| 16. |
- Fowkes, F. G. R., et al.
(författare)
-
Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events
- 2014
-
Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4881 .- 2047-4873. ; 21:3, s. 310-320
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS. Design An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events. Methods Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events. Results In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women. Conclusions An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest.
|
|
| 17. |
|
|
| 18. |
|
|
| 19. |
|
|
| 20. |
- Lorenz, Matthias W., et al.
(författare)
-
Individual progression of carotid intima media thickness as a surrogate for vascular risk (PROG-IMT): Rationale and design of a meta-analysis project
- 2010
-
Ingår i: American Heart Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1097-6744 .- 0002-8703. ; 159:5, s. 25-730
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Carotid intima media thickness (IMT) progression is increasingly used as a surrogate for vascular risk. This use is supported by data from a few clinical trials investigating statins, but established criteria of surrogacy are only partially fulfilled. To provide a valid basis for the use of IMT progression as a study end point, we are performing a 3-step meta-analysis project based on individual participant data. Objectives of the 3 successive stages are to investigate (1) whether IMT progression prospectively predicts myocardial infarction, stroke, or death in population-based samples; (2) whether it does so in prevalent disease cohorts; and (3) whether interventions affecting IMT progression predict a therapeutic effect on clinical end points. Recruitment strategies, inclusion criteria, and estimates of the expected numbers of eligible studies are presented along with a detailed analysis plan. (Am Heart J 2010; 159: 730-736.e2.)
|
|
