| 11. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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Ingår i: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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| 12. |
- Lotze, Heike K., et al.
(författare)
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:26, s. 12907-12912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
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| 13. |
- Mace, Georgina M., et al.
(författare)
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Approaches to defining a planetary boundary for biodiversity
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 28, s. 289-297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.
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| 14. |
- Mishra, A, et al.
(författare)
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Pecl, Gretta T., et al.
(författare)
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Biodiversity redistribution under climate change : Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 355:6332
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
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| 17. |
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| 19. |
- Steel, Craig, et al.
(författare)
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The IBER study : study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial of Imagery Based Emotion Regulation for the treatment of anxiety in bipolar disorder.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Pilot and Feasibility Studies. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2055-5784. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Anxiety is highly prevalent in people diagnosed with bipolar disorder (BD), and can persist between acute episodes of mania and depression. Recent studies indicate that people with BD are prone to experiencing frequent, intrusive and emotional mental images which further fuel their levels of anxiety and mood instability. These intrusive emotional mental images represent a specific target for treatment for this disorder with the potential to reduce anxiety and improve mood stability. A new brief structured psychological intervention for BD called Imagery Based Emotion Regulation (IBER) has been developed, which translates experimental work in the area of imagery and emotion into a skills training programme to improve the regulation of intrusive and distressing emotional mental images in BD. A feasibility trial is required in order to assess whether a full randomised controlled trial is indicated in order to evaluate this approach.Methods: The design is a two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT), with 1:1 randomisation stratified by trial site and minimised on medication status and anxiety severity. Participants are 60 individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder and experiencing at least a mild level of anxiety. Sites are defined by the geographical boundaries of two National Health Service (NHS) Trusts, with recruitment from NHS teams, GP surgeries and self-referral. The intervention is up to 12 sessions of Imagery Based Emotion Regulation within 16 weeks. The comparator is NHS standard care. The primary aim is to assess the feasibility of conducting a powered multi-site RCT to evaluate effectiveness. Measures of anxiety, depression, mania, mood stability and health care use will be conducted at baseline, end of treatment and at 16-week follow-up.Discussion: This is the first feasibility trial of an imagery-based intervention for the treatment of anxiety in bipolar disorder. If the trial proves feasible, a large multi-site trial will be required.Trial registration: ISRCTN16321795. Registered on October 16, 2018. 10.1186/ISRCTN16321795.
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| 20. |
- Steel, Craig, et al.
(författare)
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The IBER study : a feasibility randomised controlled trial of imagery based emotion regulation for the treatment of anxiety in bipolar disorder
- 2023
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Ingår i: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIPOLAR DISORDERS. - : Springer Nature. - 2194-7511. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundIntrusive mental imagery is associated with anxiety and mood instability within bipolar disorder and therefore represents a novel treatment target. Imagery Based Emotion Regulation (IBER) is a brief structured psychological intervention developed to enable people to use the skills required to regulate the emotional impact of these images.MethodsParticipants aged 18 and over with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder and at least a mild level of anxiety were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive IBER plus treatment as usual (IBER + TAU) or treatment as usual alone (TAU). IBER was delivered in up to 12 sessions overs 16 weeks. Clinical and health economic data were collected at baseline, end of treatment and 16-weeks follow-up. Objectives were to inform the recruitment process, timeline and sample size estimate for a definitive trial and to refine trial procedures. We also explored the impact on participant outcomes of anxiety, depression, mania, and mood stability at 16-weeks and 32-weeks follow-up.ResultsFifty-seven (28: IBER + TAU, 27: TAU) participants from two sites were randomised, with 50 being recruited within the first 12 months. Forty-seven (82%) participants provided outcome data at 16 and 32-weeks follow-up. Thirty-five participants engaged in daily mood monitoring at the 32-week follow-up stage. Retention in IBER treatment was high with 27 (96%) attending >= 7 sessions. No study participants experienced a serious adverse event.DiscussionThe feasibility criteria of recruitment, outcome completion, and intervention retention were broadly achieved, indicating that imagery-focused interventions for bipolar disorder are worthy of further investigation.
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