| 11. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 12. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 13. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 14. |
- Bao, Zijia, et al.
(författare)
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A helical polypyrrole nanotube interwoven zeolitic imidazolate framework and its derivative as an oxygen electrocatalyst
- 2022
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Ingår i: Chemical Communications. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 1359-7345 .- 1364-548X. ; 58:80, s. 11288-11291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A helical polypyrrole nanotube interwoven zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF) has been prepared for the first time. After pyrolysis, the helical carbon could act as highly active sites, while the 3D-connected nanoarchitecture contributed to fast charge transfer. The derived carbon material exhibits high activity for the ORR and good performance for a Zn–air battery.
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| 15. |
- Cai, Liangliang, et al.
(författare)
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Direct Formation of C-C Double-Bonded Structural Motifs by On-Surface Dehalogenative Homocoupling of gem-Dibromomethyl Molecules
- 2018
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Ingår i: ACS Nano. - : AMER CHEMICAL SOC. - 1936-0851 .- 1936-086X. ; 12:8, s. 7959-7966
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conductive polymers are of great importance in a variety of chemistry-related disciplines and applications. The recently developed bottom-up on-surface synthesis strategy provides us with opportunities for the fabrication of various nanostructures in a flexible and facile manner, which could be investigated by high-resolution microscopic techniques in real space. Herein, we designed and synthesized molecular precursors functionalized with benzal gem-dibromomethyl groups. A combination of scanning tunneling microscopy, noncontact atomic force microscopy, high-resolution synchrotron radiation photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory calculations demonstrated that it is feasible to achieve the direct formation of C-C double-bonded structural motifs via on-surface dehalogenative homocoupling reactions on the Au(111) surface. Correspondingly, we convert the sp(3)-hybridized state to an sp(2)-hybridized state of carbon atoms, i.e., from an alkyl group to an alkenyl one. Moreover, by such a bottom-up strategy, we have successfully fabricated poly(phenylenevinylene) chains on the surface, which is anticipated to inspire further studies toward understanding the nature of conductive polymers at the atomic scale.
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| 16. |
- Delios, A., et al.
(författare)
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Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples.
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| 17. |
- Dong, Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Observation of a Ubiquitous (π, π)-Type Nematic Superconducting Order in the Whole Superconducting Dome of Ultra-Thin BaFe2–xNixAs2 Single Crystals
- 2021
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Ingår i: Chinese Physics Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0256-307X .- 1741-3540. ; 38:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In iron-based superconductors, the (0, pi) or (pi, 0) nematicity, which describes an electronic anisotropy with a four-fold symmetry breaking, is well established and believed to be important for understanding the superconducting mechanism. However, how exactly such a nematic order observed in the normal state can be related to the superconducting pairing is still elusive. Here, by performing angular-dependent in-plane magnetoresistivity using ultra-thin flakes in the steep superconducting transition region, we unveil a nematic superconducting order along the (pi, pi) direction in electron-doped BaFe2 - x Ni x As2 from under-doped to heavily overdoped regimes with x = 0.065-0.18. It shows superconducting gap maxima along the (pi, pi) direction rotated by 45 degrees from the nematicity along (0, pi) or (pi, 0) direction observed in the normal state. A similar (pi, pi)-type nematicity is also observed in the under-doped and optimally doped hole-type Ba1 - y K y Fe2As2, with y = 0.2-0.5. These results suggest that the (pi, pi) nematic superconducting order is a universal feature that needs to be taken into account in the superconducting pairing mechanism in iron-based superconductors.
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| 18. |
- Fan, Mei-Cen, et al.
(författare)
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Room-temperature extraction of individual elements from charged spent LiFePO4 batteries
- 2022
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Ingår i: Rare Metals. - : Springer. - 1001-0521 .- 1867-7185.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recycling millions of metric tons of spent LiFePO4 batteries would benefit human health while reducing resource depletion and environmental pollution. However, recovering individual elements from the spent batteries without generating waste is challenging. Here, we present a distinctive approach for recycling spent LiFePO4 batteries at room temperature, where water is the only leaching agent consumed. FePO4 and lithium intercalated graphite act as a precursor material for selectively extracting lithium, iron, and phosphorus through charging the LiFePO4 batteries to the delithiated state. NaOH solution extracted Fe from FePO4 within 30 min and regenerated without consumption, similar to a catalyst. Under the optimal leaching conditions (1 mol·L−1 NaOH, 0.5 h, NaOH/Fe molar ratio of 4.5), Fe and P leaching efficiencies achieved 89.1% and 99.2%, respectively. The methodology reflected in this research reduced the material cost per kg cathode material to a fraction of previously published reports, only occupies 6.13% of previous reports. In addition, the method improved the battery recycling revenue calculated by the EverBatt model by 2.31 times and 1.94 times over pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical methods. The proposed method allows for the convenient recovery of the elemental components of spent LiFePO4 batteries.
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| 19. |
- Fang, Li Tai, et al.
(författare)
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Establishing community reference samples, data and call sets for benchmarking cancer mutation detection using whole-genome sequencing
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Biotechnology. - : Springer Nature. - 1087-0156 .- 1546-1696. ; 39:9, s. 1151-1160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tumor-normal paired DNA samples from a breast cancer cell line and a matched lymphoblastoid cell line enable calibration of clinical sequencing pipelines and benchmarking 'tumor-only' or 'matched tumor-normal' analyses. The lack of samples for generating standardized DNA datasets for setting up a sequencing pipeline or benchmarking the performance of different algorithms limits the implementation and uptake of cancer genomics. Here, we describe reference call sets obtained from paired tumor-normal genomic DNA (gDNA) samples derived from a breast cancer cell line-which is highly heterogeneous, with an aneuploid genome, and enriched in somatic alterations-and a matched lymphoblastoid cell line. We partially validated both somatic mutations and germline variants in these call sets via whole-exome sequencing (WES) with different sequencing platforms and targeted sequencing with >2,000-fold coverage, spanning 82% of genomic regions with high confidence. Although the gDNA reference samples are not representative of primary cancer cells from a clinical sample, when setting up a sequencing pipeline, they not only minimize potential biases from technologies, assays and informatics but also provide a unique resource for benchmarking 'tumor-only' or 'matched tumor-normal' analyses.
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| 20. |
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