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| 3. |
- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Murari, A., et al.
(författare)
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A control oriented strategy of disruption prediction to avoid the configuration collapse of tokamak reactors
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective of thermonuclear fusion consists of producing electricity from the coalescence of light nuclei in high temperature plasmas. The most promising route to fusion envisages the confinement of such plasmas with magnetic fields, whose most studied configuration is the tokamak. Disruptions are catastrophic collapses affecting all tokamak devices and one of the main potential showstoppers on the route to a commercial reactor. In this work we report how, deploying innovative analysis methods on thousands of JET experiments covering the isotopic compositions from hydrogen to full tritium and including the major D-T campaign, the nature of the various forms of collapse is investigated in all phases of the discharges. An original approach to proximity detection has been developed, which allows determining both the probability of and the time interval remaining before an incoming disruption, with adaptive, from scratch, real time compatible techniques. The results indicate that physics based prediction and control tools can be developed, to deploy realistic strategies of disruption avoidance and prevention, meeting the requirements of the next generation of devices.
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- De Ridder, J., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Data Release 3: Pulsations in main sequence OBAF-type stars
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The third Gaia data release provides photometric time series covering 34 months for about 10 million stars. For many of those stars, a characterisation in Fourier space and their variability classification are also provided. This paper focuses on intermediate- to high-mass (IHM) main sequence pulsators (M ≥ 1.3 M⊙) of spectral types O, B, A, or F, known as β Cep, slowly pulsating B (SPB), δ Sct, and γ Dor stars. These stars are often multi-periodic and display low amplitudes, making them challenging targets to analyse with sparse time series.Aims. We investigate the extent to which the sparse Gaia DR3 data can be used to detect OBAF-type pulsators and discriminate them from other types of variables. We aim to probe the empirical instability strips and compare them with theoretical predictions. The most populated variability class is that of the δ Sct variables. For these stars, we aim to confirm their empirical period-luminosity (PL) relation, and verify the relation between their oscillation amplitude and rotation.Methods. All datasets used in this analysis are part of the Gaia DR3 data release. The photometric time series were used to perform a Fourier analysis, while the global astrophysical parameters necessary for the empirical instability strips were taken from the Gaia DR3 gspphot tables, and the v sin i data were taken from the Gaia DR3 esphs tables. The δ Sct PL relation was derived using the same photometric parallax method as the one recently used to establish the PL relation for classical Cepheids using Gaia data.Results. We show that for nearby OBAF-type pulsators, the Gaia DR3 data are precise and accurate enough to pinpoint them in the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We find empirical instability strips covering broader regions than theoretically predicted. In particular, our study reveals the presence of fast rotating gravity-mode pulsators outside the strips, as well as the co-existence of rotationally modulated variables inside the strips as reported before in the literature. We derive an extensive period–luminosity relation for δ Sct stars and provide evidence that the relation features different regimes depending on the oscillation period. We demonstrate how stellar rotation attenuates the amplitude of the dominant oscillation mode of δ Sct stars.Conclusions. The Gaia DR3 time-series photometry already allows for the detection of the dominant (non-)radial oscillation mode in about 100 000 intermediate- and high-mass dwarfs across the entire sky. This detection capability will increase as the time series becomes longer, allowing the additional delivery of frequencies and amplitudes of secondary pulsation modes.
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| 6. |
- Drimmel, R., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Data Release 3: Mapping the asymmetric disc of the Milky Way
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. With the most recent Gaia data release, the number of sources with complete 6D phase space information (position and velocity) has increased to well over 33 million stars, while stellar astrophysical parameters are provided for more than 470 million sources, and more than 11 million variable stars are identified.Aims. Using the astrophysical parameters and variability classifications provided in Gaia DR3, we selected various stellar populations to explore and identify non-axisymmetric features in the disc of the Milky Way in configuration and velocity space.Methods. Using more about 580 000 sources identified as hot OB stars, together with 988 known open clusters younger than 100 Myr, we mapped the spiral structure associated with star formation 4−5 kpc from the Sun. We selected over 2800 Classical Cepheids younger than 200 Myr that show spiral features extending as far as 10 kpc from the Sun in the outer disc. We also identified more than 8.7 million sources on the red giant branch (RGB), of which 5.7 million have line-of-sight velocities. This later sample allows the velocity field of the Milky Way to be mapped as far as 8 kpc from the Sun, including the inner disc.Results. The spiral structure revealed by the young populations is consistent with recent results using Gaia EDR3 astrometry and source lists based on near-infrared photometry, showing the Local (Orion) Arm to be at least 8 kpc long, and an outer arm consistent with what is seen in HI surveys, which seems to be a continuation of the Perseus arm into the third quadrant. The subset of RGB stars with velocities clearly reveals the large-scale kinematic signature of the bar in the inner disc, as well as evidence of streaming motions in the outer disc that might be associated with spiral arms or bar resonances. A local comparison of the velocity field of the OB stars reveals similarities and differences with the RGB sample.Conclusions. This cursory study of Gaia DR3 data shows there is a rich bounty of kinematic information to be explored more deeply, which will undoubtedly lead us to a clearer understanding of the dynamical nature of the non-axisymmetric structures of the Milky Way.
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| 7. |
- Galluccio, L., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Data Release 3: Reflectance spectra of Solar System small bodies
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The Gaia mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) has been routinely observing Solar System objects (SSOs) since the beginning of its operations in August 2014. The Gaia data release three (DR3) includes, for the first time, the mean reflectance spectra of a selected sample of 60 518 SSOs, primarily asteroids, observed between August 5, 2014, and May 28, 2017. Each reflectance spectrum was derived from measurements obtained by means of the Blue and Red photometers (BP/RP), which were binned in 16 discrete wavelength bands. For every spectrum, the DR3 also contains additional information about the data quality for each band.Aims. We describe the processing of the Gaia spectral data of SSOs, explaining both the criteria used to select the subset of asteroid spectra published in Gaia DR3, and the different steps of our internal validation procedures. In order to further assess the quality of Gaia SSO reflectance spectra, we carried out external validation against SSO reflectance spectra obtained from ground-based and space-borne telescopes and available in the literature; we present our validation approach.Methods. For each selected SSO, an epoch reflectance was computed by dividing the calibrated spectrum observed by the BP/RP at each transit on the focal plane by the mean spectrum of a solar analogue. The latter was obtained by averaging the Gaia spectral measurements of a selected sample of stars known to have very similar spectra to that of the Sun. Finally, a mean of the epoch reflectance spectra was calculated in 16 spectral bands for each SSO.Results. Gaia SSO reflectance spectra are in general agreement with those obtained from a ground-based spectroscopic campaign specifically designed to cover the same spectral interval as Gaia and mimic the illumination and observing geometry characterising Gaia SSO observations. In addition, the agreement between Gaia mean reflectance spectra and those available in the literature is good for bright SSOs, regardless of their taxonomic spectral class. We identify an increase in the spectral slope of S-type SSOs with increasing phase angle. Moreover, we show that the spectral slope increases and the depth of the 1 μm absorption band decreases for increasing ages of S-type asteroid families. The latter can be interpreted as proof of progressive ageing of S-type asteroid surfaces due to their exposure to space weathering effects.
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- Klioner, S. A., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Early Data Release 3: The celestial reference frame (Gaia-CRF3)
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Gaia-CRF3 is the celestial reference frame for positions and proper motions in the third release of data from the Gaia mission, Gaia DR3 (and for the early third release, Gaia EDR3, which contains identical astrometric results). The reference frame is defined by the positions and proper motions at epoch 2016.0 for a specific set of extragalactic sources in the (E)DR3 catalogue.Aims. We describe the construction of Gaia-CRF3 and its properties in terms of the distributions in magnitude, colour, and astrometric quality.Methods. Compact extragalactic sources in Gaia DR3 were identified by positional cross-matching with 17 external catalogues of quasi-stellar objects (QSO) and active galactic nuclei (AGN), followed by astrometric filtering designed to remove stellar contaminants. Selecting a clean sample was favoured over including a higher number of extragalactic sources. For the final sample, the random and systematic errors in the proper motions are analysed, as well as the radio-optical offsets in position for sources in the third realisation of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3).Results. Gaia-CRF3 comprises about 1.6 million QSO-like sources, of which 1.2 million have five-parameter astrometric solutions in Gaia DR3 and 0.4 million have six-parameter solutions. The sources span the magnitude range G = 13-21 with a peak density at 20.6 mag, at which the typical positional uncertainty is about 1 mas. The proper motions show systematic errors on the level of 12 μas yr-1 on angular scales greater than 15 deg. For the 3142 optical counterparts of ICRF3 sources in the S/X frequency bands, the median offset from the radio positions is about 0.5 mas, but it exceeds 4 mas in either coordinate for 127 sources. We outline the future of Gaia-CRF in the next Gaia data releases. Appendices give further details on the external catalogues used, how to extract information about the Gaia-CRF3 sources, potential (Galactic) confusion sources, and the estimation of the spin and orientation of an astrometric solution.
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| 9. |
- Lindegren, L., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Data Release 3: A golden sample of astrophysical parameters
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) provides a wealth of new data products for the astronomical community to exploit, including astrophysical parameters for half a billion stars. In this work, we demonstrate the high quality of these data products and illustrate their use in different astrophysical contexts.Aims. We produce homogeneous samples of stars with high-quality astrophysical parameters by exploiting Gaia DR3, while focusing on many regimes across the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram; spectral types OBA, FGKM, and ultracool dwarfs (UCDs). We also focus on specific subsamples of particular interest to the community: solar analogues, carbon stars, and the Gaia spectrophotometric standard stars (SPSS).Methods. We query the astrophysical parameter tables along with other tables in Gaia DR3 to derive the samples of the stars of interest. We validate our results using the Gaia catalogue itself and by comparison with external data.Results. We produced six homogeneous samples of stars with high-quality astrophysical parameters across the HR diagram for the community to exploit. We first focus on three samples that span a large parameter space: young massive disc stars (OBA; about 3 Million), FGKM spectral type stars (about 3 Million), and UCDs (about 20 000). We provide these sources along with additional information (either a flag or complementary parameters) as tables that are made available in the Gaia archive. We also identify 15 740 bone fide carbon stars and 5863 solar analogues, and provide the first homogeneous set of stellar parameters of the SPSS sample. We demonstrate some applications of these samples in different astrophysical contexts. We use a subset of the OBA sample to illustrate its usefulness in analysing the Milky Way rotation curve. We then use the properties of the FGKM stars to analyse known exoplanet systems. We also analyse the ages of some unseen UCD-companions to the FGKM stars. We additionally predict the colours of the Sun in various passbands (Gaia, 2MASS, WISE) using the solar-analogue sample.Conclusions. Gaia DR3 contains a wealth of new high-quality astrophysical parameters for the community to exploit.
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| 10. |
- Montegriffo, P., et al.
(författare)
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Gaia Data Release 3: The Galaxy in your preferred colours: Synthetic photometry from Gaia low-resolution spectra
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gaia Data Release 3 provides novel flux-calibrated low-resolution spectrophotometry for ≅220 million sources in the wavelength range 330 nm ≤ λ ≤ 1050 nm (XP spectra). Synthetic photometry directly tied to a flux in physical units can be obtained from these spectra for any passband fully enclosed in this wavelength range. We describe how synthetic photometry can be obtained from XP spectra, illustrating the performance that can be achieved under a range of different conditions - for example passband width and wavelength range - as well as the limits and the problems affecting it. Existing top-quality photometry can be reproduced within a few per cent over a wide range of magnitudes and colour, for wide and medium bands, and with up to millimag accuracy when synthetic photometry is standardised with respect to these external sources. Some examples of potential scientific application are presented, including the detection of multiple populations in globular clusters, the estimation of metallicity extended to the very metal-poor regime, and the classification of white dwarfs. A catalogue providing standardised photometry for ≅2.2×108 sources in several wide bands of widely used photometric systems is provided (Gaia Synthetic Photometry Catalogue; GSPC) as well as a catalogue of ≅105 white dwarfs with DA/non-DA classification obtained with a Random Forest algorithm (Gaia Synthetic Photometry Catalogue for White Dwarfs; GSPC-WD).
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