| 1. |
- Adamson, Carly, et al.
(författare)
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Dapagliflozin for Heart Failure According to Body Mass Index : The DELIVER Trial.
- 2022
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Ingår i: European heart journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 43:41, s. 4406-4417
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: Obesity is common and associated with unique phenotypic features in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Therefore, understanding the efficacy and safety of new therapies in HFpEF patients with obesity is important. The effects of dapagliflozin were examined according to body mass index (BMI) among patients in the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Body mass index was analysed by World Health Organization (WHO) categories and as a continuous variable using restricted cubic splines. Body mass index ranged from 15.2 to 50 kg/m2 with a mean value of 29.8 (standard deviation +/- 6.1) kg/m2. The proportions, by WHO category, were: normal weight 1343 (21.5%); overweight 2073 (33.1%); Class I obesity 1574 (25.2%); Class II obesity 798 (12.8%); and Class III obesity 415 (6.6%). Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome to a similar extent across these categories: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.89 (0.69-1.15), 0.87 (0.70-1.08), 0.74 (0.58-0.93), 0.78 (0.57-1.08), and 0.72 (0.47-1.08), respectively (P-interaction = 0.82). The placebo-corrected change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score with dapagliflozin at 8 months was: 0.9 (-1.1, 2.8), 2.5 (0.8, 4.1), 1.9 (-0.1, 3.8), 2.7 (-0.5, 5.8), and 8.6 (4.0, 13.2) points, respectively (P-interaction = 0.03). The placebo-corrected change in weight at 12 months was: -0.88 (-1.28, -0.47), -0.65 (-1.04, -0.26), -1.42 (-1.89, -0.94), -1.17 (-1.94, -0.40), and -2.50 (-4.4, -0.64) kg (P-interaction = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is common in patients with HFpEF and is associated with higher rates of heart failure hospitalization and worse health status. Treatment with dapagliflozin improves cardiovascular outcomes across the spectrum of BMI, leads to greater symptom improvement in patients with obesity, compared with those without, and has the additional benefit of causing modest weight loss.
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| 2. |
- Bhatt, Ankeet S., et al.
(författare)
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Operational Challenges and Mitigation Measures during the COVID-19 Pandemic-Lessons from DELIVER.
- 2023
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Ingår i: American heart journal. ; 263, s. 133-140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Catastrophic disruptions in care delivery threaten the operational efficiency and potentially the validity of clinical research efforts, in particular randomized clinical trials. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic affected essentially all aspects of care delivery and clinical research conduct. While consensus statements and clinical guidance documents have detailed potential mitigation measures, few real- world experiences detailing clinical trial adaptations to the COVID-19 pandemic exist, particularly among, large, global registrational cardiovascular trials. METHODS: We outline the operational impact of COVID-19 and resultant mitigation measures in the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial, one of the largest and most globally diverse experiences with COVID-19 of any cardiovascular clinical trial to date. Specifically, we address the needed coordination between academic investigators, trial leadership, clinical sites, and the supporting sponsor to ensure the safety of participants and trial staff, to maintain the fidelity of trial operations, and to prospectively adapt statistical analyses plans to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 and the pandemic at large on trial participants. These discussions included key operational issues such as ensuring delivery of study medications, adaptations to study visits, enhanced COVID-19 related endpoint adjudication, and protocol and analytical plan revisions. CONCLUSION: Our findings may have important implications for establishing consensus on prospective contingency planning in future clinical trials. CLINICALTRIAL: gov: NCT03619213. CLINICALTRIAL: GOV: NCT03619213.
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| 3. |
- Butt, Jawad H., et al.
(författare)
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Atrial Fibrillation and Dapagliflozin Efficacy in Patients With Preserved or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:18, s. 1705-1717
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF), is associated with worse outcomes compared with sinus rhythm, and may modify the effects of therapy. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the effects of dapagliflozin according to the presence or not of AF in the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial. METHODS: A total of 6,263 patients with HF with New York Heart Association functional class II-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction $>$40%, evidence of structural heart disease, and elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were randomized to dapagliflozin or placebo. Clinical outcomes and the effect of dapagliflozin, according to AF status, were examined. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or worsening HF. RESULTS: Of the 6,261 patients with data on baseline AF, 43.3% had no AF, 18.0% had paroxysmal AF, and 38.7% had persistent/permanent AF. The risk of the primary endpoint was higher in patients with AF, especially paroxysmal AF, driven by a higher rate of HF hospitalization: no AF, HF hospitalization rate per 100 person-years (4.5 [95% CI: 4.0-5.1]), paroxysmal AF (7.5 [95% CI: 6.4-8.7]), and persistent/permanent AF (6.4 [95% CI: 5.7-7.1]) (P $<$ 0.001). The benefit of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome was consistent across AF types: no AF, HR: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-1.08); paroxysmal AF, HR: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97); persistent/permanent AF, HR: 0.79 (95% CI: 0.66-0.95) (Pinteraction = 0.49). Consistent effects were observed for HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and improvement in the KCCQ- TSS. CONCLUSIONS: In DELIVER, the beneficial effects of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on clinical events and symptoms were consistent, irrespective of type of AF at baseline. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure. [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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| 4. |
- Butt, Jawad H., et al.
(författare)
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Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin According to Frailty in Patients With Heart Failure : A Prespecified Analysis of the DELIVER Trial.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Circulation. ; 146:16, s. 1210-1224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasing in prevalence. Because patients with frailty are often perceived to have a less favorable risk/benefit profile, they may be less likely to receive new pharmacologic treatments. We investigated the efficacy and tolerability of dapagliflozin according to frailty status in patients with heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction randomized in DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure). METHODS: Frailty was measured using the Rockwood cumulative deficit approach. The primary end point was time to a first worsening heart failure event or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of the 6263 patients randomized, a frailty index (FI) was calculable in 6258. In total, 2354 (37.6%) patients had class 1 frailty (FI $<$/=0.210; ie, not frail), 2413 (38.6%) had class 2 frailty (FI 0.211-0.310; ie, more frail), and 1491 (23.8%) had class 3 frailty (FI $>$/=0.311; ie, most frail). Greater frailty was associated with a higher rate of the primary end point (per 100 person-years): FI class 1, 6.3 (95% CI 5.7-7.1); class 2, 8.3 (7.5-9.1); and class 3, 13.4 (12.1-14.7; P$<$0.001). The effect of dapagliflozin (as a hazard ratio) on the primary end point from FI class 1 to 3 was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.68-1.06), 0.89 (0.74-1.08), and 0.74 (0.61-0.91), respectively (Pinteraction=0.40). Although patients with a greater degree of frailty had worse Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores at baseline, their improvement with dapagliflozin was greater than it was in patients with less frailty: placebo-corrected improvement in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary Score at 4 months in FI class 1 was 0.3 (95% CI, -0.9 to 1.4); in class 2, 1.5 (0.3-2.7); and in class 3, 3.4 (1.7-5.1; Pinteraction=0.021). Adverse reactions and treatment discontinuation, although more frequent in patients with a greater degree of frailty, were not more common with dapagliflozin than with placebo irrespective of frailty class. CONCLUSIONS: In DELIVER, frailty was common and associated with worse outcomes. The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent across the range of frailty studied. The improvement in health-related quality of life with dapagliflozin occurred early and was greater in patients with a higher level of frailty. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03619213.
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| 5. |
- Cunningham, Jonathan W., et al.
(författare)
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Dapagliflozin in Patients Recently Hospitalized With Heart Failure and Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:14, s. 1302-1310
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Patients recently hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for rehospitalization and death. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate clinical outcomes and response to dapagliflozin in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who were enrolled during or following hospitalization. METHODS: The DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVES of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial randomized patients with HF and LVEF $>$40% to dapagliflozin or placebo. DELIVER permitted randomization during or shortly after hospitalization for HF in clinically stable patients off intravenous HF therapies. This prespecified analysis investigated whether recent HF hospitalization modified risk of clinical events or response to dapagliflozin. The primary outcome was worsening HF event or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of 6,263 patients in DELIVER, 654 (10.4%) were randomized during HF hospitalization or within 30 days of discharge. Recent HF hospitalization was associated with greater risk of the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment (HR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.60-2.21; P $<$ 0.001). Dapagliflozin reduced the primary outcome by 22% in recently hospitalized patients (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.60-1.03) and 18% in patients without recent hospitalization (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.94; Pinteraction = 0.71). Rates of adverse events, including volume depletion, diabetic ketoacidosis, or renal events, were similar with dapagliflozin and placebo in recently hospitalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin safely reduced risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death similarly in patients with and without history of recent HF hospitalization. Starting dapagliflozin during or shortly after HF hospitalization in patients with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF appears safe and effective. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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| 6. |
- Jhund, Pardeep S., et al.
(författare)
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Dapagliflozin across the Range of Ejection Fraction in Patients with Heart Failure : A Patient-Level, Pooled Meta-Analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 28:9, s. 1956-1964
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whether the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin reduces the risk of a range of morbidity and mortality outcomes in patients with heart failure regardless of ejection fraction is unknown. A patient-level pooled meta-analysis of two trials testing dapagliflozin in participants with heart failure and different ranges of left ventricular ejection fraction ($<$/=40% and $>$40%) was pre-specified to examine the effect of treatment on endpoints that neither trial, individually, was powered for and to test the consistency of the effect of dapagliflozin across the range of ejection fractions. The pre-specified endpoints were: death from cardiovascular causes; death from any cause; total hospital admissions for heart failure; and the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction or stroke (major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs)). A total of 11,007 participants with a mean ejection fraction of 44% (s.d. 14%) were included. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.97; P = 0.01), death from any cause (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99; P = 0.03), total hospital admissions for heart failure (rate ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.78; P $<$ 0.001) and MACEs (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.00; P = 0.045). There was no evidence that the effect of dapagliflozin differed by ejection fraction. In a patient- level pooled meta-analysis covering the full range of ejection fractions in patients with heart failure, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and hospital admissions for heart failure (PROSPERO: CRD42022346524).
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| 7. |
- Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, et al.
(författare)
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Leveraging electronic health records to streamline the conduct of cardiovascular clinical trials
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 44:21, s. 1890-1909
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conventional randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can be expensive, time intensive, and complex to conduct. Trial recruitment, participation, and data collection can burden participants and research personnel. In the past two decades, there have been rapid technological advances and an exponential growth in digitized healthcare data. Embedding RCTs, including cardiovascular outcome trials, into electronic health record systems or registries may streamline screening, consent, randomization, follow-up visits, and outcome adjudication. Moreover, wearable sensors (i.e. health and fitness trackers) provide an opportunity to collect data on cardiovascular health and risk factors in unprecedented detail and scale, while growing internet connectivity supports the collection of patient-reported outcomes. There is a pressing need to develop robust mechanisms that facilitate data capture from diverse databases and guidance to standardize data definitions. Importantly, the data collection infrastructure should be reusable to support multiple cardiovascular RCTs over time. Systems, processes, and policies will need to have sufficient flexibility to allow interoperability between different sources of data acquisition. Clinical research guidelines, ethics oversight, and regulatory requirements also need to evolve. This review highlights recent progress towards the use of routinely generated data to conduct RCTs and discusses potential solutions for ongoing barriers. There is a particular focus on methods to utilize routinely generated data for trials while complying with regional data protection laws. The discussion is supported with examples of cardiovascular outcome trials that have successfully leveraged the electronic health record, web-enabled devices or administrative databases to conduct randomized trials.
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| 8. |
- Kosiborod, Mikhail N., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of Dapagliflozin on Health Status in Patients With Preserved or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 81:5, s. 460-473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) experience a high burden of symptoms, physical limitations, and poor quality of life; improving health status is a key goal of management. OBJECTIVES: In a prespecified analysis of the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial, we examine effects of dapagliflozin on health status using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). METHODS: The DELIVER trial randomized patients with symptomatic HFmrEF/HFpEF to dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo. KCCQ was evaluated at randomization, 1, 4, and 8 months; KCCQ Total Symptom Score (TSS) was a key secondary endpoint. Patients were stratified by KCCQ-TSS tertiles; Cox models examined effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes. We evaluated the effects of dapagliflozin on KCCQ-TSS, Physical Limitations (PLS), Clinical Summary (CSS), and Overall Summary (OSS) domains. Responder analyses compared proportions of dapagliflozin vs placebo-treated patients with clinically meaningful changes in KCCQ. RESULTS: A total of 5,795 patients had baseline KCCQ (median KCCQ-TSS 72.9). The effects of dapagliflozin on reducing cardiovascular death/worsening HF appeared more pronounced in patients with greater baseline symptom burden (lowest-to-highest KCCQ-TSS tertile: HR: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.58-0.84]; 0.81 [95% CI: 0.65-1.01]; 1.07 [95% CI: 0.83-1.37]; Pinteraction = 0.026). Dapagliflozin improved KCCQ-TSS, -PLS, -CSS, and -OSS at 8 months (2.4, 1.9, 2.3, and 2.1 points higher vs placebo; P $<$ 0.001 for all). Dapagliflozin-treated patients experienced improvements in KCCQ-TSS regardless of EF (Pinteraction = 0.85). Fewer dapagliflozin- treated patients had deterioration, and more had improvements in all KCCQ domains at 8 months. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical benefits of dapagliflozin in HFmrEF/HFpEF appear especially pronounced in those with greater baseline symptom impairment. Dapagliflozin improved all KCCQ domains and the proportion of patients experiencing clinically meaningful changes in health status. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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| 9. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 10. |
- McDowell, Kirsty, et al.
(författare)
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Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction
- 2024
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Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - 2380-6583. ; 9:5, s. 457-465
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Accurate risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) may help clinicians risk stratify and inform care decisions. Objective: To develop and validate a novel prediction model for clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF using routinely collected variables and to compare it with a biomarker-driven approach. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were used from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial to derive the prediction model, and data from the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibition in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) and the Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (I-PRESERVE) trials were used to validate it. The outcomes were the composite of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. A total of 30 baseline candidate variables were selected in a stepwise fashion using multivariable analyses to create the models. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023. Exposures: Models to estimate the 1-year and 2-year risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Results: Data from 6263 individuals in the DELIVER trial were used to derive the prediction model and data from 4796 individuals in the PARAGON-HF trial and 4128 individuals in the I-PRESERVE trial were used to validate it. The final prediction model for the composite outcome included 11 variables: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, HFH within the past 6 months, creatinine level, diabetes, geographic region, HF duration, treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transient ischemic attack/stroke, any previous HFH, and heart rate. This model showed good discrimination (C statistic at 1 year, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) in both validation cohorts (C statistic at 1 year, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74 in PARAGON-HF and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.78 in I-PRESERVE) and calibration. The model showed similar discrimination to a biomarker-driven model including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and significantly better discrimination than the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) risk score (C statistic at 1 year, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63; delta C statistic, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.15; P <.001) and NT-proBNP level alone (C statistic at 1 year, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68; delta C statistic, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; P <.001). Models derived for the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death also performed well. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a robust prediction model for clinical outcomes in HFpEF was developed and validated using routinely collected variables. The model performed better than NT-proBNP level alone. The model may help clinicians to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment decisions in HFpEF..
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