| 1. |
- Cao, Yang, Associate Professor, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
-
The statistical importance of P-POSSUM scores for predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients
- 2020
-
Ingår i: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. - : BioMed Central. - 1472-6947. ; 20:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Geriatric patients frequently undergo emergency general surgery and accrue a greater risk of postoperative complications and fatal outcomes than the general population. It is highly relevant to develop the most appropriate care measures and to guide patient-centered decision-making around end-of-life care. Portsmouth - Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) has been used to predict mortality in patients undergoing different types of surgery. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the relative importance of the P-POSSUM score for predicting 90-day mortality in the elderly subjected to emergency laparotomy from statistical aspects.METHODS: One hundred and fifty-seven geriatric patients aged ≥65 years undergoing emergency laparotomy between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2016 were included in the study. Mortality and 27 other patient characteristics were retrieved from the computerized records of Örebro University Hospital in Örebro, Sweden. Two supervised classification machine methods (logistic regression and random forest) were used to predict the 90-day mortality risk. Three scalers (Standard scaler, Robust scaler and Min-Max scaler) were used for variable engineering. The performance of the models was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Importance of the predictors were evaluated using permutation variable importance and Gini importance.RESULTS: The mean age of the included patients was 75.4 years (standard deviation =7.3 years) and the 90-day mortality rate was 29.3%. The most common indication for surgery was bowel obstruction occurring in 92 (58.6%) patients. Types of post-operative complications ranged between 7.0-36.9% with infection being the most common type. Both the logistic regression and random forest models showed satisfactory performance for predicting 90-day mortality risk in geriatric patients after emergency laparotomy, with AUCs of 0.88 and 0.93, respectively. Both models had an accuracy > 0.8 and a specificity ≥0.9. P-POSSUM had the greatest relative importance for predicting 90-day mortality in the logistic regression model and was the fifth important predictor in the random forest model. No notable change was found in sensitivity analysis using different variable engineering methods with P-POSSUM being among the five most accurate variables for mortality prediction.CONCLUSION: P-POSSUM is important for predicting 90-day mortality after emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients. The logistic regression model and random forest model may have an accuracy of > 0.8 and an AUC around 0.9 for predicting 90-day mortality. Further validation of the variables' importance and the models' robustness is needed by use of larger dataset.
|
|
| 2. |
- Ding, Ding, et al.
(författare)
-
Predictive Value of Odor Identification for Incident Dementia : The Shanghai Aging Study
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 1663-4365 .- 1663-4365. ; 12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the value of odors in the olfactory identification (OI) test and other known risk factors for predicting incident dementia in the prospective Shanghai Aging Study.Methods: At baseline, OI was assessed using the Sniffin' Sticks Screening Test 12, which contains 12 different odors. Cognition assessment and consensus diagnosis were conducted at both baseline and follow-up to identify incident dementia. Four different multivariable logistic regression (MLR) models were used for predicting incident dementia. In the no-odor model, only demographics, lifestyle, and medical history variables were included. In the single-odor model, we further added one single odor to the first model. In the full model, all 12 odors were included. In the stepwise model, the variables were selected using a bidirectional stepwise selection method. The predictive abilities of these models were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The permutation importance method was used to evaluate the relative importance of different odors and other known risk factors.Results: Seventy-five (8%) incident dementia cases were diagnosed during 4.9 years of follow-up among 947 participants. The full and the stepwise MLR model (AUC = 0.916 and 0.914, respectively) have better predictive abilities compared with those of the no- or single-odor models. The five most important variables are Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, age, peppermint detection, coronary artery disease, and height in the full model, and MMSE, age, peppermint detection, stroke, and education in the stepwise model. The combination of only the top five variables in the stepwise model (AUC = 0.901 and sensitivity = 0.880) has as a good a predictive ability as other models.Conclusion: The ability to smell peppermint might be one of the useful indicators for predicting dementia. Combining peppermint detection with MMSE, age, education, and history of stroke may have sensitive and robust predictive value for dementia in older adults.
|
|
| 3. |
- Maghami, S., et al.
(författare)
-
Beta-blocker Therapy is Associated with Decreased 1-year Mortality After Emergency Laparotomy in Geriatric Patients
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Surgery. - : Sage Publications. - 1457-4969 .- 1799-7267. ; 110:1, s. 37-43
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: Emergency laparotomy is associated with a great risk of mortality in the elderly. The hyperadrenergic state induced by surgical trauma may play an important role in the pathophysiology of this increased risk. Studies have shown that beta-blocker exposure may be associated with decreased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. We aimed to study the effect of beta-blocker on mortality in geriatric patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.Material and Methods: This is a retrospective study of patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2016 at a single institution. The outcomes of interest were the association between post-operative complications and in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients on beta-blocker therapy (BB(+)) and those who were not (BB(-)). The Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate the association.Results: A total of 192 patients were included of whom 62 (32.2%) had pre-operative beta-blocker therapy with continued exposure during their hospital stay. The in-hospital mortality was 17.7% in the BB(+) and 23.8% in the BB(-) cohorts (p = 0.441). One-year mortality was significantly lower in the BB(+) group compared to the BB(-) group (30.6% versus 47.7%; p = 0.038). After adjusting for confounders, the incidence of deaths during 1 year post-operatively decreased by 35% in the BB(+) group (incidence rate ratio = 0.65, p = 0.004). No significant differences in the incidence of post-operative complications between the two groups could be measured.Conclusion: Beta-blocker therapy may be associated with reduced 1-year mortality following emergency laparotomy in geriatric patients.
|
|
| 4. |
- Ding, Ding, et al.
(författare)
-
Can dementia be predicted using olfactory identification test in the elderly? A Bayesian network analysis
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Brain and Behavior. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2162-3279 .- 2162-3279. ; 10:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that olfactory dysfunction is associated with cognitive decline or dementia.OBJECTIVE: To find a potential association between the olfactory identification (OI) and dementia onset, and build a prediction model for dementia screening in the older population.METHODS: Nine hundred and forty-seven participants from the Shanghai Aging Study were analyzed. The participants were dementia-free and completed OI test using the Sniffin' Sticks Screening Test-12 at baseline. After an average of 4.9-year follow-up, 75 (8%) of the participants were diagnosed with incident dementia. Discrete Bayesian network (DBN) and multivariable logistic regression (MLR) models were used to explore the dependencies of the incident dementia on the baseline demographics, lifestyles, and OI test results.RESULTS: In DBN analysis, odors of orange, cinnamon, peppermint, and pineapple, combined with age and Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE), achieved a high predictive ability for incident dementia, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) larger than 0.8. The odor cinnamon showed the highest AUC of 0.838 (95% CI: 0.731-0.946) and a high accuracy of 0.867. The DBN incorporating age, MMSE, and one odor test had an accuracy (0.760-0.872 vs. 0.835) comparable to that of the MLR model and revealed the dependency between the variables.CONCLUSION: The DBN using OI test may have predictive ability comparable to MLR analysis and suggest potential causal relationship for further investigation. Identification of odor cinnamon might be a useful indicator for dementia screening and deserve further investigation.
|
|
| 5. |
- Ding, Ding, et al.
(författare)
-
Cholesterol profiles and incident cognitive decline among older adults : the Shanghai Aging Study
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Age and Ageing. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-0729 .- 1468-2834. ; 50:2, s. 472-479
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: the association between cholesterol profiles and risk of cognitive decline among older adults was inconclusive.OBJECTIVE: to examine the association between cholesterol profiles and risk of cognitive decline in older adults with or without vascular risk factors (VRFs) in the prospective phase of the Shanghai Aging Study.DESIGN: a prospective community-based cohort study.SETTING: Shanghai, China.PARTICIPANTS: we prospectively followed 1,556 dementia-free participants aged ≥60 years with a baseline cholesterol profile for 5.2 years on average. Participants with at least one of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, and coronary artery disease were categorised to the VRFs group, and those free of any VRFs were categorised to the non-VRFs group.METHODS: total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in serum were measured at baseline. At follow-up, consensus diagnosis of incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) were established based on medical, neurological, and neuropsychological examinations. Cox regression was used to assess the association between cholesterol and incident dementia/AD; multivariate linear regression was used to examine the relationship between cholesterol and an annual rate of Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score decline in participants with or without VRFs.RESULTS: among VRFs-free participants, TC (HR 0.62, 95%CI 0.40-0.95) and LDL-C (HR 0.47, 95%CI 0.28-0.80) were inversely associated with incident dementia, LDL-C was inversely associated with incident AD (HR 0.50, 95%CI 0.28-0.90). A significant correlation was found between incremental TC (β = 0.08), LDL-C (β = 0.09), and a slower annual decline of MMSE score.CONCLUSIONS: effect of cholesterol on cognitive decline may be modified by VRFs.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Zhu, Zheng, et al.
(författare)
-
TOMM40 and APOE variants synergistically increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease in a Chinese population
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Aging Clinical and Experimental Research. - : Springer. - 1594-0667 .- 1720-8319. ; 33:6, s. 1667-1675
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The apolipoprotein E (APOE) epsilon 4 allele is a strong risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in Caucasian and African American populations. It suggests that other genetic factors may modulate AD pathogenesis in Chinese populations, among which the frequency of this allele is reduced but the AD prevalence is maintained. The translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 (TOMM40), which is located adjacent to APOE,may play an APOE-dependent role in modulating AD pathogenesis.Aims: This work aimed to investigate whether TOMM40 polymorphisms modulate AD risk independently of, or in conjunction with APOE polymorphisms in Chinese populations.Methods: We conducted a case-control study including 834 patients with AD recruited from the Memory Clinic and 643 cognitively normal participants recruited from the community. The Taqman SNP method was used for APOE genotyping, while TOMM40 polymorphism genotyping was conducted via a polymerase chain reaction-ligase detection reaction.Results: TheTOMM40 rs10119 and rs71352238 alleles were associated with AD independently of the patient APO status. The rs10119 AA genotype and rs71352238 CC genotype were risk genotypes of AD. Individuals carrying a TOMM40 rs10119 GG/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 3.73; 95% CI 1.49-9.37;P = 0.005), TOMM40 rs10119 AG/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 4.16; 95% CI 3.30-5.24;P < 0.001), or TOMM40 rs10119 AA/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 14.78; 95% CI 8.56-25.54;P < 0.001) genotype exhibited a significantly higher AD risk. Those carrying a TOMM40 rs71352238 TT/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 3.82; 95% CI 2.32-6.29;P < 0.001), TOMM40 rs71352238 CT/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 4.40; 95% CI 3.46-5.56;P < 0.001), or TOMM40 rs71352238 CC/APOE epsilon 4+ (OR, 14.02; 95% CI 7.81-25.17;P < 0.001) genotype also exhibited a significantly increased AD risk.Discussion and conclusions: This study provides invaluable insights into the mechanisms underlying the prevalence of AD in Chinese populations, and supports that simultaneous TOMM40 and APOE genotyping in the clinical setting may identify individuals at high risk of developing AD.
|
|
