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- Smith, Todd, et al.
(author)
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Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals : a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies
- 2019
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In: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 68, s. 672-683
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.
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| 2. |
- van Duijnhoven, Fränzel J B, et al.
(author)
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Blood lipid and lipoprotein concentrations and colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2011
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In: Gut. - London : BMJ Publishing. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 60:8, s. 1094-1102
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA), apolipoprotein B and the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: The study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort of more than 520,000 participants from 10 western European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 1238 cases of incident CRC, which developed after enrolment into the cohort, were matched with 1238 controls for age, sex, centre, follow-up time, time of blood collection and fasting status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum concentrations were quantitatively determined by colorimetric and turbidimetric methods. Dietary and lifestyle data were obtained from questionnaires. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs which were adjusted for height, weight, smoking habits, physical activity, education, consumption of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, alcohol, fibre and energy. RESULTS: After adjustments, the concentrations of HDL and apoA were inversely associated with the risk of colon cancer (RR for 1 SD increase of 16.6 mg/dl in HDL and 32.0 mg/dl in apoA of 0.78 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.94), respectively). No association was observed with the risk of rectal cancer. Additional adjustment for biomarkers of systemic inflammation, insulin resistance and oxidative stress or exclusion of the first 2 years of follow-up did not influence the association between HDL and risk of colon cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that high concentrations of serum HDL are associated with a decreased risk of colon cancer. The mechanism behind this association needs further elucidation.
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