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- Johansson, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Extreme weather affects colonization : extinction dynamics and the persistence of a threatened butterfly
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:6, s. 1068-1077
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme weather events can be expected to increase in frequency in the future. Our knowledge on how this may affect species persistence is, however, very limited. For reliable projections of future persistence we need to understand how extreme weather affects species' population dynamics.We analysed the effect of extreme droughts on the host plant Succisa pratensis, colonization-extinction dynamics, and future persistence of the threatened marsh fritillary Euphydryas aurinia. Specifically, we studied a metapopulation inhabiting a network of 256 patches on Gotland (Sweden), where the summer of 2018 was the driest ever recorded. We analysed how the frequency and leaf size of host plants changed between 2017 and 2019, based on 6,833 records in 0.5-m(2) sample plots. Using turnover data on the butterfly from 2018 to 2019 we modelled local extinction and colonization probabilities. Moreover, we projected future population dynamics with an increasing frequency of extreme years under three different management strategies that regulate the grazing regime.Our results show a substantial decrease in both frequency (46%) and size (20%) of host plants due to the drought, which taken together may constitute a 57% loss of food resources. The butterfly occupancy decreased by over 30% between 2018 and 2019 (from 0.36 to 0.27). The extinction probability increased with increasing 'effective area' of the patch (taking quality reduction due to grazing into account), and the colonization probability increased with increasing connectivity and ground moisture.Projections of future dynamics showed an increasing risk of metapopulation extinction with increasing frequency of years with extreme droughts. The risk, however, clearly differed between management strategies. Less grazing in years with droughts decreased the extinction risk considerably.Synthesis and applications. Extreme weather events can have profound negative impacts on butterflies and their host plants. For the marsh fritillary, an increased frequency of extreme droughts can lead to extinction of the entire metapopulation, even in a large and seemingly viable metapopulation. Increased grazing, due to fodder deficiency in dry years, may lead to cascading negative effects, while active management that reduce grazing in years with droughts can almost completely mitigate these effects.
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| 2. |
- Johansson, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Epiphyte metapopulation persistence after drastic habitat decline and low tree regeneration: time-lags and effects of conservation actions
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 50, s. 414-422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Old trees have declined in Europe due to agricultural intensification and forestry. For shade-intolerant epiphytic species occurring on old trees in semi-open landscapes, host tree numbers have further decreased because of shading by developing secondary woodland. Moreover, in this habitat, regeneration that could replace the extant old trees is low. This suggests that epiphytic species associated with old trees are declining. However, for species with low extinction rates, the decline may be slow and hard to elucidate. We investigated the persistence of five old-oak-associated epiphytic lichens with different traits by simulating metapopulation dynamics using Bayesian incidence function models for dynamic landscapes. With an oak-rich landscape as a reference, we investigated effects of (i) drastic habitat decline, (ii) conservation actions such as clearing around trees or increased regeneration rate, (iii) low tree regeneration and (iv) clearing and increased regeneration after 100years of low regeneration. After drastic habitat decline, the number of occupied trees continued to decrease, displaying long time-lags before reaching new metapopulation equilibriums. Lichen extinction risks increased with decreasing habitat and were highest for species that only colonise very old trees or have large dispersal propagules. In landscapes with low tree densities, conservation actions had only minor effects on lichen extinction risks. Low tree regeneration rates increased lichen extinction risks, but species declines were slow. Conservation actions that increased regeneration after 100years of low regeneration decreased the extinction risks to very low levels. Synthesis and applications. Due to low rates of local extinction, epiphytes display long time-lags to reach new equilibriums after habitat loss. Thus, we should expect ongoing declines in epiphyte metapopulations in landscapes where old trees have recently declined. Slow extinction gives an opportunity to improve persistence by conservation actions, but the success depends on species traits and the current density of old trees. In landscapes with many old but few young trees, epiphytes may persist if conservation actions quickly address the need to increase tree regeneration rates. The best conservation approach for long-term persistence of epiphytic lichens is to ensure regular tree regeneration in landscapes with a current high density of old trees.
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