| 1. |
- Johansson, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Extreme weather affects colonization : extinction dynamics and the persistence of a threatened butterfly
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:6, s. 1068-1077
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme weather events can be expected to increase in frequency in the future. Our knowledge on how this may affect species persistence is, however, very limited. For reliable projections of future persistence we need to understand how extreme weather affects species' population dynamics.We analysed the effect of extreme droughts on the host plant Succisa pratensis, colonization-extinction dynamics, and future persistence of the threatened marsh fritillary Euphydryas aurinia. Specifically, we studied a metapopulation inhabiting a network of 256 patches on Gotland (Sweden), where the summer of 2018 was the driest ever recorded. We analysed how the frequency and leaf size of host plants changed between 2017 and 2019, based on 6,833 records in 0.5-m(2) sample plots. Using turnover data on the butterfly from 2018 to 2019 we modelled local extinction and colonization probabilities. Moreover, we projected future population dynamics with an increasing frequency of extreme years under three different management strategies that regulate the grazing regime.Our results show a substantial decrease in both frequency (46%) and size (20%) of host plants due to the drought, which taken together may constitute a 57% loss of food resources. The butterfly occupancy decreased by over 30% between 2018 and 2019 (from 0.36 to 0.27). The extinction probability increased with increasing 'effective area' of the patch (taking quality reduction due to grazing into account), and the colonization probability increased with increasing connectivity and ground moisture.Projections of future dynamics showed an increasing risk of metapopulation extinction with increasing frequency of years with extreme droughts. The risk, however, clearly differed between management strategies. Less grazing in years with droughts decreased the extinction risk considerably.Synthesis and applications. Extreme weather events can have profound negative impacts on butterflies and their host plants. For the marsh fritillary, an increased frequency of extreme droughts can lead to extinction of the entire metapopulation, even in a large and seemingly viable metapopulation. Increased grazing, due to fodder deficiency in dry years, may lead to cascading negative effects, while active management that reduce grazing in years with droughts can almost completely mitigate these effects.
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| 2. |
- Lisovski, Simeon, et al.
(författare)
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The roles of migratory and resident birds in local avian influenza infection dynamics
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 55:6, s. 2963-2975
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Migratory birds are an increasing focus of interest when it comes to infection dynamics and the spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, we lack detailed understanding of migratory birds' contribution to local AIV prevalence levels and their downstream socio-economic costs and threats. 2. To explain the potential differential roles of migratory and resident birds in local AIV infection dynamics, we used a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. We investigated five (mutually non- exclusive) mechanisms potentially driving observed prevalence patterns: (1) a pronounced birth pulse (e.g. the synchronised annual influx of immunologically naive individuals), (2) short-term immunity, (3) increase in susceptible migrants, (4) differential susceptibility to infection (i.e. transmission rate) for migrants and residents, and (5) replacement of migrants during peak migration. 3. SIR models describing all possible combinations of the five mechanisms were fitted to individual AIV infection data from a detailed longitudinal surveillance study in the partially migratory mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos). During autumn and winter, the local resident mallard community also held migratory mallards that exhibited distinct AIV infection dynamics. 4. Replacement of migratory birds during peak migration in autumn was found to be the most important mechanism driving the variation in local AIV infection patterns. This suggests that a constant influx of migratory birds, likely immunological naive to locally circulating AIV strains, is required to predict the observed temporal prevalence patterns and the distinct differences in prevalence between residents and migrants. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis reveals a key mechanism that could explain the amplifying role of migratory birds in local avian influenza virus infection dynamics; the constant flow and replacement of migratory birds during peak migration. Apart from monitoring efforts, in order to achieve adequate disease management and control in wildlife-with knock-on effects for livestock and humans,-we conclude that it is crucial, in future surveillance studies, to record host demographical parameters such as population density, timing of birth and turnover of migrants.
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| 3. |
- Avril, Alexis, et al.
(författare)
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Capturing individual-level parameters of influenza A virus dynamics in wild ducks using multistate models
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 53:4, s. 1289-1297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Disease prevalence in wildlife is governed by epidemiological parameters (infection and recovery rates) and response to infection, both of which vary within and among individual hosts. Studies quantifying these individual-scale parameters and documenting their source of variation in wild hosts are fundamental for predicting disease dynamics. Such studies do not exist for the influenza A virus (IAV), despite its strong impact on the global economy and public health. Using capture-recaptures of 3500 individual mallards Anas platyrhynchos during seven migration seasons at a stopover site in southern Sweden, we provide the first empirical description of the individual-based mechanisms of IAV dynamics in a wild reservoir host. For most years, prevalence and risk of IAV infection peaked at a single time during the autumn migration season, but the timing, shape and intensity of the infection curve showed strong annual heterogeneity. In contrast, the seasonal pattern of recovery rate only varied in intensity across years. Adults and juveniles displayed similar seasonal patterns of infection and recovery each year. However, compared to adults, juveniles experienced twice the risk of becoming infected, whereas recovery rates were similar across age categories. Finally, we did not find evidence that infection influenced the timing of emigration.Synthesis and applications. Our study provides robust empirical estimates of epidemiological parameters for predicting influenza A virus (IAV) dynamics. However, the strong annual variation in infection curves makes forecasting difficult. Prevalence data can provide reliable surveillance indicators as long as they catch the variation in infection risk. However, individual-based monitoring of infection is required to verify this assumption in areas where surveillance occurs. In this context, monitoring of captive sentinel birds kept in close contact with wild birds is useful. The fact that infection does not impact the timing of migration underpins the potential for mallards to spread viruses rapidly over large geographical scales. Hence, we strongly encourage IAV surveillance with a multistate capture-recapture approach along the entire migratory flyway of mallards.
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| 4. |
- Gauld, Jethro G., et al.
(författare)
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Hotspots in the grid : Avian sensitivity and vulnerability to collision risk from energy infrastructure interactions in Europe and North Africa
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 59:6, s. 1496-1512
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind turbines and power lines can cause bird mortality due to collision or electrocution. The biodiversity impacts of energy infrastructure (EI) can be minimised through effective landscape-scale planning and mitigation. The identification of high-vulnerability areas is urgently needed to assess potential cumulative impacts of EI while supporting the transition to zero carbon energy. We collected GPS location data from 1,454 birds from 27 species susceptible to collision within Europe and North Africa and identified areas where tracked birds are most at risk of colliding with existing EI. Sensitivity to EI development was estimated for wind turbines and power lines by calculating the proportion of GPS flight locations at heights where birds were at risk of collision and accounting for species' specific susceptibility to collision. We mapped the maximum collision sensitivity value obtained across all species, in each 5 x 5 km grid cell, across Europe and North Africa. Vulnerability to collision was obtained by overlaying the sensitivity surfaces with density of wind turbines and transmission power lines. Results: Exposure to risk varied across the 27 species, with some species flying consistently at heights where they risk collision. For areas with sufficient tracking data within Europe and North Africa, 13.6% of the area was classified as high sensitivity to wind turbines and 9.4% was classified as high sensitivity to transmission power lines. Sensitive areas were concentrated within important migratory corridors and along coastlines. Hotspots of vulnerability to collision with wind turbines and transmission power lines (2018 data) were scattered across the study region with highest concentrations occurring in central Europe, near the strait of Gibraltar and the Bosporus in Turkey. Synthesis and applications. We identify the areas of Europe and North Africa that are most sensitive for the specific populations of birds for which sufficient GPS tracking data at high spatial resolution were available. We also map vulnerability hotspots where mitigation at existing EI should be prioritised to reduce collision risks. As tracking data availability improves our method could be applied to more species and areas to help reduce bird-EI conflicts.
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| 5. |
- Göthe, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Flow restoration and the impacts of multiple stressors on fish communities in regulated rivers
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 56:7, s. 1687-1702
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- River regulation for hydropower is undertaken worldwide, causing profound alterations to hydrological regimes and running water habitats. Regulated catchments are often subjected to additional stressors, arising inter alia from agriculture, forestry and industry, which are likely to interact with impacts of river regulation on fish and other biota. Such interactions are poorly understood, hindering planning of effective mitigation and restoration. We investigated fish responses to increased discharge (as a restoration measure) in regulated rivers in Sweden. We compiled electrofishing data from river channels downstream of hydropower dams, each of which either has or lacks a mandated minimum discharge corresponding to c. 5% of pre-regulation discharge. We further analysed interactions between flow restoration and co-occurring local and regional stressors. River channels without a mandated minimum discharge were characterized by a low diversity of fish species with traits favouring persistence under unpredictable environmental conditions, including omnivory, short life cycles and small size. Additional stressors further reduced diversity and increased dominance by broad-niched, opportunistic species. Both the presence and magnitude of a mandated minimum discharge were positively related to fish diversity and density, and the relative density of three economically and recreationally valuable species. However, the size of these relationships frequently varied with the presence of additional stressors. Increasing levels of hydrological degradation and reduced connectivity at the catchment scale reduced positive flow-ecology relationships and hindered the restoration of fish communities towards reference conditions. However, application of a mandated minimum discharge also assisted in mitigating impacts of some co-occurring stressors, especially reduced riparian integrity. Synthesis and applications. Additional stressors can strongly influence the outcomes of flow restoration for fish community diversity and composition. Our approach combining fish species and trait data from multiple flow restoration projects with information on additional stressors yielded valuable insights into factors affecting flow restoration success, useful for (a) identifying the systems most likely to benefit from mandated minimum flows, (b) modelling influences of multiple stressors on flow-ecology relationships, (c) prioritizing additional measures to manage co-occurring stressors and enhance outcomes from flow restoration.
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