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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 7. |
- Lind, Marcus, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Glycaemic control and incidence of heart failure in 20 985 patients with type 1 diabetes: an observational study
- 2011
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 378:9786, s. 140-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Poor glycaemic control is associated with microvascular and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes, but whether glycaemic control is associated with heart failure in such patients is not known. We aimed to assess this association in a large cohort of patients with type 1 diabetes identified from the Swedish national diabetes registry. Methods We identified all patients (aged >= 18 years) with type 1 diabetes and no known heart failure who were registered in the national diabetes registry between January, 1998, and December, 2003. These patients were followed up until hospital admission for heart failure, death, or end of follow-up on Dec 31, 2009. We calculated incidence categorised by glycated haemoglobin A(1c) (HbA(1c)) values, and we assessed the association between patients' characteristics, including HbA(1c), and heart failure. Findings In a cohort of 20 985 patients with mean age of 38.6 years (SD 13.3) at baseline, 635 patients (3%) were admitted to hospital with a primary or secondary diagnosis of heart failure during a median follow-up of 9.0 years (IQR 7.3-11.0), with an incidence of 3.38 events per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 3.12-3.65). Incidence increased monotonically with HbA(1c), with a range of 1.42-5.20 per 1000 patient-years between patients in the lowest (<6.5%) and highest (>= 10.5%) categories of HbA(1c). In a Cox regression analysis, with adjustment for age, sex, duration of diabetes, cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline or intervening acute myocardial infarction and other comorbidities, the hazard ratio for development of heart failure was 3.98 (95% CI 2.23-7.14) in patients with HbA(1c) of 10.5% or higher compared with a reference group of patients with HbA(1c) of less than 6.5%. Risk of heart failure increased with age and duration of diabetes. Other modifiable factors associated with increased risk of heart failure were smoking, high systolic blood pressure, and raised body-mass index. In a subgroup of 18 281 patients (87%) with data for blood lipids, higher HDL cholesterol was associated with lower risk of heart failure, but there was no association with LDL cholesterol. Interpretation The positive association between HbA(1c) and risk of heart failure in fairly young patients with type 1 diabetes indicates a potential for prevention of heart failure with improved glycaemic control.
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- Ortiz Catalan, Max Jair, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Phantom motor execution facilitated by machine learning and augmented reality as treatment for phantom limb pain: a single group, clinical trial in patients with chronic intractable phantom limb pain
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10062, s. 2885-2894
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Phantom limb pain is a debilitating condition for which no eff ective treatment has been found. We hypothesised that re-engagement of central and peripheral circuitry involved in motor execution could reduce phantom limb pain via competitive plasticity and reversal of cortical reorganisation. Methods Patients with upper limb amputation and known chronic intractable phantom limb pain were recruited at three clinics in Sweden and one in Slovenia. Patients received 12 sessions of phantom motor execution using machine learning, augmented and virtual reality, and serious gaming. Changes in intensity, frequency, duration, quality, and intrusion of phantom limb pain were assessed by the use of the numeric rating scale, the pain rating index, the weighted pain distribution scale, and a study-specifi c frequency scale before each session and at follow-up interviews 1, 3, and 6 months after the last session. Changes in medication and prostheses were also monitored. Results are reported using descriptive statistics and analysed by non-parametric tests. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials. gov, number NCT02281539. Findings Between Sept 15, 2014, and April 10, 2015, 14 patients with intractable chronic phantom limb pain, for whom conventional treatments failed, were enrolled. After 12 sessions, patients showed statistically and clinically signifi cant improvements in all metrics of phantom limb pain. Phantom limb pain decreased from pre-treatment to the last treatment session by 47% (SD 39; absolute mean change 1 . 0 [0 . 8]; p= 0 . 001) for weighted pain distribution, 32% (38; absolute mean change 1 . 6 [1 . 8]; p= 0 . 007) for the numeric rating scale, and 51% (33; absolute mean change 9 . 6 [8 . 1]; p= 0 . 0001) for the pain rating index. The numeric rating scale score for intrusion of phantom limb pain in activities of daily living and sleep was reduced by 43% (SD 37; absolute mean change 2 . 4 [2 . 3]; p= 0 . 004) and 61% (39; absolute mean change 2 . 3 [1 . 8]; p= 0 . 001), respectively. Two of four patients who were on medication reduced their intake by 81% (absolute reduction 1300 mg, gabapentin) and 33% (absolute reduction 75 mg, pregabalin). Improvements remained 6 months after the last treatment. Interpretation Our fi ndings suggest potential value in motor execution of the phantom limb as a treatment for phantom limb pain. Promotion of phantom motor execution aided by machine learning, augmented and virtual reality, and gaming is a non-invasive, non-pharmacological, and engaging treatment with no identified side-effects at present.
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- Einarsson, Rasmus, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Healthy diets and sustainable food systems
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 394:10194, s. 215-215
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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