| 1. |
- Mills, Gina, et al.
(författare)
-
Evidence of widespread effects of ozone on crops and (semi-)natural vegetation in Europe (1990 - 2006) in relation to AOT40 - and flux-based risk maps
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 17:1, s. 592-613
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Records of effects of ambient ozone pollution on vegetation have been compiled for Europe for the years 1990–2006. Sources include scientific papers, conference proceedings, reports to research funders, records of confirmed ozone injury symptoms and an international biomonitoring experiment coordinated by the ICP Vegetation. The latter involved ozone-sensitive (NC-S) and ozone-resistant (NC-R) biotypes of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) grown according to a common protocol and monitored for ozone injury and biomass differences in 17 European countries, from 1996 to 2006. Effects were separated into visible injury or growth/yield reduction. Of the 644 records of visible injury, 39% were for crops (27 species), 38.1% were for (semi-) natural vegetation (95 species) and 22.9% were for shrubs (49 species). Owing to inconsistencies in reporting effort from year to year it was not possible to determine geographical or temporal trends in the data. Nevertheless, this study has shown effects in ambient air in 18 European countries from Sweden in the north to Greece in the south. These effects data were superimposed on AOT40 (accumulated ozone concentrations over 40 ppb) and POD3gen (modelled accumulated stomatal flux over a threshold of 3 nmol m−2 s−1) maps generated by the EMEP Eulerian model (50 km × 50 km grid) that were parameterized for a generic crop based on wheat and NC-S/NC-R white clover. Many effects were found in areas where the AOT40 (crops) was below the critical level of 3 ppm h. In contrast, the majority of effects were detected in grid squares where POD3gen (crops) were in the mid-high range (>12 mmol m−2). Overall, maps based on POD3gen provided better fit to the effects data than those based on AOT40, with the POD3gen model for clover fitting the clover effects data better than that for a generic crop.
|
|
| 2. |
- Barretto, Agop, et al.
(författare)
-
Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975-2006 period
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 19:6, s. 1804-1815
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 19751996 and 19962006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 19602006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.
|
|
| 3. |
- Freitas, Flavio L M, et al.
(författare)
-
Who owns the Brazilian carbon?
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 24:5, s. 2129-2142
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Brazil is one of the major contributors to land-use change emissions, mostly driven by agricultural expansion for food, feed and bioenergy feedstock. Policies to avoid deforestation related to private commitments, economic incentives, and other support schemes are expected to improve the effectiveness of current command and control mechanisms increasingly. However, until recently, land tenure was unknown for much of the Brazilian territory, which has undermined the governance of native vegetation and challenged support and incentive mechanisms for avoiding deforestation. We assess the total extent of public governance mechanisms protecting aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks. We constructed a land tenure dataset for the entire nation and modeled the effects and uncertainties of major land-use acts on protecting AGC stocks. Roughly 70% of the AGC stock in Brazil is estimated to be under legal protection, and an additional 20% is expected to be protected after areas in the Amazon with currently undesignated land undergo a tenure regularization. About 30% of the AGC stock is on private land, of which roughly two-thirds are protected. The Cerrado, Amazon and Caatinga biomes hold about 40%, 30% and 20% of the unprotected AGC, respectively. Effective conservation of protected and unprotected carbon will depend on successful implementation of the Forest Act, and regularization of land tenure in the Amazon. Policy development that prioritizes unprotected AGC stocks is warranted to promote conservation of native vegetation beyond the legal requirements. However, different biomes and land tenure structures may require different policy settings considering local and regional specifics. Finally, the fate of current AGC stocks relies upon effective implementation of command and control mechanisms, considering that unprotected AGC in native vegetation on private land only accounts for 6.5% of the total AGC stock.
|
|
| 4. |
- Mills, Gina, 1959, et al.
(författare)
-
Closing the global ozone yield gap: Quantification and cobenefits for multistress tolerance
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 24:10, s. 4869-4893
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean>wheat>maize>rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010–2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the “ozone yield gaps”), adding up to 227Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone-induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution-focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.
|
|
| 5. |
- Mills, Gina, 1959, et al.
(författare)
-
Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 24:8, s. 3560-3574
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
|
|
| 6. |
- Persson, Martin, 1976, et al.
(författare)
-
A method for calculating a land-use change carbon footprint (LUC-CFP) for agricultural commodities - applications to Brazilian beef and soy, Indonesian palm oil
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 20:11, s. 3482-3491
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land-use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land-use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land-use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO2/t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO2/t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO2/t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land-use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land-use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land-use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Smith, P., et al.
(författare)
-
How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 19:8, s. 2285-2302
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.
|
|
