| 1. |
- Hollesen, J., et al.
(författare)
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Future active layer dynamics and carbon dioxide production from thawing permafrost layers in Northeast Greenland
- 2011
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 17:2, s. 911-926
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thawing permafrost and the resulting mineralization of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is considered an important future feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Here, we use a dynamic process oriented permafrost model, the CoupModel, to link surface and subsurface temperatures from a moist permafrost soil in High-Arctic Greenland with observed heat production and carbon dioxide (CO2) release rates from decomposition of previously frozen organic matter. Observations show that the maximum thickness of the active layer at the end of the summer has increased 1 cm yr-1 since 1996. The model is successfully adjusted and applied for the study area and shown to be able to simulate active layer dynamics. Subsequently, the model is used to predict the active layer thickness under future warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of maximum active layer thickness from today 70 to 80-105 cm as a result of a 2-6 degrees C warming. An additional increase in the maximum active layer thickness of a few centimetres may be expected due to heat production from decomposition of organic matter. Simulated future soil temperatures and water contents are subsequently used with measured basal soil respiration rates in a respiration model to predict the corresponding depth-integrated CO2 production from permafrost layers between 0.7 and 2 m below the surface. Results show an increase from present values of < 40 g C m-2 yr-1 to between 120 and 213 g C m-2 yr-1 depending on the magnitude of predicted warming. These rates are more than 50% of the present soil CO2 efflux measured at the soil surface. Future modelling accounting for snow, vegetation and internal biological heat feedbacks are of interest in order to test the robustness of the above predictions and to describe the entire ecosystem response.
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| 2. |
- Freitas, Flavio L M, et al.
(författare)
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Who owns the Brazilian carbon?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 24:5, s. 2129-2142
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Brazil is one of the major contributors to land-use change emissions, mostly driven by agricultural expansion for food, feed and bioenergy feedstock. Policies to avoid deforestation related to private commitments, economic incentives, and other support schemes are expected to improve the effectiveness of current command and control mechanisms increasingly. However, until recently, land tenure was unknown for much of the Brazilian territory, which has undermined the governance of native vegetation and challenged support and incentive mechanisms for avoiding deforestation. We assess the total extent of public governance mechanisms protecting aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks. We constructed a land tenure dataset for the entire nation and modeled the effects and uncertainties of major land-use acts on protecting AGC stocks. Roughly 70% of the AGC stock in Brazil is estimated to be under legal protection, and an additional 20% is expected to be protected after areas in the Amazon with currently undesignated land undergo a tenure regularization. About 30% of the AGC stock is on private land, of which roughly two-thirds are protected. The Cerrado, Amazon and Caatinga biomes hold about 40%, 30% and 20% of the unprotected AGC, respectively. Effective conservation of protected and unprotected carbon will depend on successful implementation of the Forest Act, and regularization of land tenure in the Amazon. Policy development that prioritizes unprotected AGC stocks is warranted to promote conservation of native vegetation beyond the legal requirements. However, different biomes and land tenure structures may require different policy settings considering local and regional specifics. Finally, the fate of current AGC stocks relies upon effective implementation of command and control mechanisms, considering that unprotected AGC in native vegetation on private land only accounts for 6.5% of the total AGC stock.
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| 3. |
- Jyväsjärvi, J., et al.
(författare)
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Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 21:12, s. 4561-4569
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.
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| 4. |
- Novaes, Renan M. L., et al.
(författare)
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Estimating 20-year land-use change and derived CO2 emissions associated with crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : WILEY. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 23:9, s. 3716-3728
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land-use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20-year LUC and derived CO2 emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time-series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon-footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO2 emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land-use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO2 emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri-environmental policies are discussed.
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