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- Lilja, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term prediction of prostate cancer up to 25 years before diagnosis of prostate cancer using prostate kallikreins measured at age 44 to 50 years.
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 25:4, s. 431-436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose We examined whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) forms and human kallikrein 2 (hK2) measured at age 44 to 50 years predict long-term risk of incident prostate cancer. Methods From 1974 to 1986, 21,277 men age <= 50 years in Malmo, Sweden, enrolled onto a cardiovascular study (74% participation). The rate of PSA screening in this population is low. According to the Swedish Cancer Registry, 498 were later diagnosed with prostate cancer. We measured hK2, free PSA, and total PSA (tPSA) in archived blood plasma from 462 participants later diagnosed with prostate cancer and from 1,222 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to test for association of prostate cancer with hK2 and PSA forms measured at baseline. Results Median delay between venipuncture and prostate cancer diagnosis was 18 years. hK2 and all PSA forms were strongly associated with prostate cancer (all P < .0005). None of the 90 anthropometric, lifestyle, biochemical, and medical history variables measured at baseline was importantly predictive. A tPSA increase of 1 ng/mL was associated with an increase in odds of cancer of 3.69 (95% CI, 2.99 to 4.56); addition of other PSA forms or hK2 did not add to the predictive value of tPSA. tPSA remained predictive for men diagnosed >= 20 years after venipuncture, and the predictive value remained unchanged in an analysis restricted to palpable disease. Conclusion A single PSA test at age 44 to 50 years predicts subsequent clinically diagnosed prostate cancer. This raises the possibility of risk stratification for prostate cancer screening programs.
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- Stephenson, Andrew J, et al.
(författare)
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Defining biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy: a proposal for a standardized definition
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 24:24, s. 3973-3978
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) defined biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer is widely used for reporting the outcome of radical prostatectomy (RP). A standardized BCR definition is lacking, and overall progression-free probability and risk of subsequent metastatic disease progression may vary greatly depending on the PSA criterion used. Ten definitions of BCR were evaluated to identify the one that best explains metastatic progression. METHODS: Of 3,125 patients who underwent RP at our institution since 1985, 75 developed distant metastasis during a median follow-up of 49 months. To predict metastasis progression, we modeled the clinical information using multivariable Cox regression analysis. BCR was included in the model as a time-dependent covariate, and separate models were developed for each definition. A goodness-of-fit (R2) statistic was used to determine the Cox model (and thereby the BCR definition) that best explained metastatic progression. RESULTS: The 10-year progression-free probability ranged from 63% to 79%, depending on the BCR definition. The model containing BCR defined as a PSA of at least 0.4 ng/mL followed by another increase best explained metastatic progression (R2 = 0.21). This definition was also associated with a high probability of subsequent secondary therapy, continued PSA progression, and rapid PSA doubling time. CONCLUSION: BCR defined as a PSA value of at least 0.4 ng/mL followed by another increase best explains the development of distant metastasis among 10 candidate definitions, after controlling for clinical variables and the use of secondary therapy. On the basis of this evidence, we propose that this definition be adopted as the standard for reporting the outcome of RP.
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- Ulmert, David, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term prediction of prostate cancer: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity is predictive but does not improve the predictive accuracy of a single PSA measurement 15 years or more before cancer diagnosis in a large, representative, unscreened population
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 26:6, s. 835-841
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose We tested whether total prostate-specific antigen velocity (tPSAv) improves accuracy of a model using PSA level to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. Methods During 1974 to 1986 in a preventive medicine study in Sweden, 5,722 men aged <= 50 gave two blood samples about 6 years apart. We measured free (fPSA) and total PSA (tPSA) in archived plasma samples from 4,907 participants. Prostate cancer was subsequently diagnosed in 443 (9%) men. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate tPSA and tPSAv as predictors of prostate cancer. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the concordance index. Results The median time from second blood draw to cancer diagnosis was 16 years; median follow-up for men without prostate cancer was 21 years. In univariate models, tPSA level at second assessment and tPSAv between first and second assessments were associated with prostate cancer (both P < .001). tPSAv was highly correlated with tPSA level (r = 0.93). Twenty-year probabilities of cancer for men at 50th, 90th, and 95th percentile of tPSA and tPSAv were 10.6%, 17.1%, and 21.2% for tPSA, and 9.1%, 11.8%, and 14.1% for tPSAv, respectively. The concordance index for tPSA level was 0.771. Adding tPSAv, fPSA, % fPSA or velocities of fPSA and % fPSA did not importantly increase accuracy of tPSA to predict prostate cancer. Results were unchanged if the analysis was restricted to patients with advanced cancer at diagnosis. Conclusion Although PSA velocity is significantly increased in men with prostate cancer up to two decades before diagnosis, it does not aid long-term prediction of prostate cancer.
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- Vickers, Andrew, et al.
(författare)
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Reducing Unnecessary Biopsy During Prostate Cancer Screening Using a Four-Kallikrein Panel: An Independent Replication.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; May 4, s. 2493-2498
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: We previously reported that a panel of four kallikrein forms in blood-total, free, and intact prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and kallikrein-related peptidase 2 (hK2)-can reduce unnecessary biopsy in previously unscreened men with elevated total PSA. We aimed to replicate our findings in a large, independent, representative, population-based cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study cohort included 2,914 previously unscreened men undergoing biopsy as a result of elevated PSA (>/= 3 ng/mL) in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, Rotterdam, with 807 prostate cancers (28%) detected. The cohort was randomly divided 1:3 into a training and validation set. Levels of kallikrein markers were compared with biopsy outcome. RESULTS: Addition of free PSA, intact PSA, and hK2 to a model containing total PSA and age improved the area under the curve from 0.64 to 0.76 and 0.70 to 0.78 for models without and with digital rectal examination results, respectively (P < .001 for both). Application of the panel to 1,000 men with elevated PSA would reduce the number of biopsies by 513 and miss 54 of 177 low-grade cancers and 12 of 100 high-grade cancers. Findings were robust to sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: We have replicated our previously published finding that a panel of four kallikreins can predict the result of biopsy for prostate cancer in men with elevated PSA. Use of this panel would dramatically reduce biopsy rates. A small number of men with cancer would be advised against immediate biopsy, but these men would have predominately low-stage, low-grade disease.
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