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1.
  • Arnberg, Filip K, 1981-, et al. (författare)
  • Psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts in Swedish survivors of the 2004 southeast Asia tsunami : a 5 year matched cohort study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Psychiatry. - Stockholm : Karolinska Institutet, Dept of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics. - 2215-0366 .- 2215-0374. ; 2:9, s. 817-824
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BackgroundSurvivors of natural disasters are thought to be at an increased risk of psychiatric disorders, however the extent of this risk, and whether it is linked to pre-existing psychopathology, is not known. We aimed to establish whether Swedish survivors of tsunamis from the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake had increased risks of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts 5 years after repatriation.MethodsWe identified Swedish survivors repatriated from southeast Asia (8762 adults and 3742 children) and 864 088 unexposed adults and 320 828 unexposed children matched for sex, age, and socioeconomic status. We retrieved psychiatric diagnoses and suicide attempts from the Swedish patient register for the 5 years after the tsunami (from Dec 26, 2004, to Jan 31, 2010) and estimated hazard ratios (HRs), then adjusted for pre-tsunami psychiatric disorders, and, for children, for parental pre-tsunami disorders.Findings Exposed adults were more likely than unexposed adults to receive any psychiatric diagnosis (547 [6.2%] vs 47 734 [5.5%]; adjusted HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11–1.32), particularly stress-related disorders (187 [2.1%] vs 8831 [1.0%]; 2.27, 1.96–2.62) and suicide attempts (38 [0.43%] vs 2752 [0.32%]; 1.54, 1.11–2.13), but not mood or anxiety disorders. Risk of psychiatric diagnoses did not differ between exposed and unexposed children and adolescents (248 [6.6] vs 22 081 [6.9%]; 0.98, 0.86–1.11), although exposed children and adolescents had a higher risk for suicide attempts with uncertain intent (1.43; 1.01–2.02) and stress-related disorders (1.79; 1.30–2.46), mainly during the first 3 months after the tsunami.InterpretationThe 2004 tsunami was, independently of previous psychiatric morbidity, associated with an increased risk of severe psychopathology, mainly stress-related disorders and suicide attempts, in children and adults. Survivors of natural disasters should be targeted with early interventions and active long-term follow-up to prevent, detect, and alleviate psychiatric disorders that might follow.
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  • Fazel, Seena, et al. (författare)
  • Depression and violence: a Swedish population study.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Psychiatry. - Stockholm : Karolinska Institutet, Dept of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics. - 2215-0366 .- 2215-0374.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Depression increases the risk of a range of adverse outcomes including suicide, premature mortality, and self-harm, but associations with violent crime remain uncertain. We aimed to determine the risks of violent crime in patients with depression and to investigate the association between depressive symptoms and violent crime in a cohort of twins. METHODS: We conducted two studies. The first was a total population study in Sweden of patients with outpatient diagnoses of depressive disorders (n=47,158) between 2001 and 2009 and no lifetime inpatient episodes. Patients were age and sex matched to general population controls (n=898,454) and risk of violent crime was calculated. Additionally, we compared the odds of violent crime in unaffected half-siblings (n=15,534) and full siblings (n=33,516) of patients with the general population controls. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the contribution of substance abuse, sociodemographic factors, and previous criminality. In the second study, we studied a general population sample of twins (n=23,020) with continuous measures of depressive symptoms for risk of violent crime. FINDINGS: During a mean follow-up period of 3·2 years, 641 (3·7%) of the depressed men and 152 (0·5%) of the depressed women violently offended after diagnosis. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, the odds ratio of violent crime was 3·0 (95% CI 2·8–3·3) compared with the general population controls. The odds of violent crime in half-siblings (adjusted odds ratio 1·2 [95% CI 1·1–1·4]) and full siblings (1·5, 95% CI 1·3–1·6) were significantly increased, showing some familial confounding of the association between depression and violence. However, the odds increase remained significant in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial confounding, and in those without substance abuse comorbidity or a previous violent conviction (all p<0·0001). In the twin study, during the mean follow-up time of 5·4 years, 88 violent crimes were recorded. Depressive symptoms were associated with increased risk of violent crime and a sensitivity analysis identified little difference in risk estimate when all crimes (violent and non-violent) was the outcome. INTERPRETATION: Risk of violent crime was increased in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial, sociodemographic and individual factors in two longitudinal studies. Clinical guidelines should consider recommending violence risk assessment in certain subgroups with depression.
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  • Chang, Zheng, et al. (författare)
  • Psychiatric disorders and violent reoffending : a national cohort study of convicted prisoners in Sweden
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - Oxon,United kingdom : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 2:10, s. 891-900
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Reoffending and presence of psychiatric disorders are common in prisoners worldwide. However, whether psychiatric disorders are risk factors for reoffending is still unknown. We aimed to examine the association between psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorder, and violent reoffending.Methods: We did a longitudinal cohort study of 47,326 prisoners who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden. We obtained data for diagnosed psychiatric disorders from both inpatient and outpatient registers, and sociodemographic and criminological factors from other population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for violent reoffending with Cox regression. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared sibling prisoners with and without psychiatric disorders. We calculated population attributable fraction to assess the population effect.Findings: Diagnosed psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased hazard of violent reoffending in male (adjusted HR 1·63 [95% CI 1·57-1·70]) and female (2·02 [1·54-2·63]) prisoners, and these associations were independent of measured sociodemographic and criminological factors, and, in men, remained substantial after adjustment for unmeasured familial factors (2·01 [1·66-2·43]). However, findings differed between individual diagnoses and sex. We found some evidence of stronger effects on violent reoffending of alcohol and drug use disorders and bipolar disorder than of other psychiatric disorders. Alcohol use disorder seemed to have a greater effect in women than in men (women 2·08 [1·66-2·60]; men 1·63 [1·56-1·71]). The overall effects of psychiatric disorders did not differ with severity of crime. The hazard of violent reoffending increased in a stepwise way with the number of diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Assuming causality, up to 20% (95% CI 19-22) of violent reoffending in men and 40% (27-52) in women was attributable to the diagnosed psychiatric disorders that we investigated.Interpretation Certain psychiatric disorders are associated with a substantially increased hazard of violent reoffending. Because these disorders are prevalent and mostly treatable, improvements to prison mental health services could counteract the cycle of reoffending and improve both public health and safety. National violence prevention strategies should consider the role of prison health.Funding: Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.
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7.
  • Chang, Zheng, et al. (författare)
  • Substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, and mortality after release from prison : a nationwide longitudinal cohort study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 2:5, s. 422-430
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: High mortality rates have been reported in people released from prison compared with the general population. However, few studies have investigated potential risk factors associated with these high rates, especially psychiatric determinants. We aimed to investigate the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality in people released from prison in Sweden.METHODS: We studied all people who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden for risks of all-cause and external-cause (accidents, suicide, homicide) mortality after prison release. We obtained data for substance use disorders and other psychiatric disorders, and criminological and sociodemographic factors from population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox regression, and then used them to calculate population attributable fractions for post-release mortality. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared individuals in the study with siblings who were also released from prison, but without psychiatric disorders. We tested whether any independent risk factors improved the prediction of mortality beyond age, sex, and criminal history.FINDINGS: We identified 47,326 individuals who were imprisoned. During a median follow-up time of 5·1 years (IQR 2·6-7·5), we recorded 2874 (6%) deaths after release from prison. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 1205 deaths per 100,000 person-years. Substance use disorders significantly increased the rate of all-cause mortality (alcohol use: adjusted HR 1·62, 95% CI 1·48-1·77; drug use: 1·67, 1·53-1·83), and the association was independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and familial factors. We identified no strong evidence that other psychiatric disorders increased mortality after we controlled for potential confounders. In people released from prison, 925 (34%) of all-cause deaths in men and 85 (50%) in women were potentially attributable to substance use disorders. Substance use disorders were also an independent determinant of external-cause mortality, with population attributable fraction estimates at 42% in men and 70% in women. Substance use disorders significantly improved the prediction of external-cause mortality, in addition to sociodemographic and criminological factors.INTERPRETATION: Interventions to address substance use disorders could substantially decrease the burden of excess mortality in people released from prison, but might need to be provided beyond the immediate period after release.
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  • Cortese, Samuele, et al. (författare)
  • Association between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and asthma : a systematic review and meta-analysis and a Swedish population-based study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 5:9, s. 717-726
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Several studies have assessed the possible association between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and asthma. However, existing evidence is inconclusive as to whether this association remains after controlling for possible important confounders. To fill this knowledge gap, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis, followed by a population-based study.Methods: For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Embase Classic, Ovid MEDLINE, and Web of Knowledge databases up to Oct 31, 2017, for observational studies allowing estimation of the association between asthma and ADHD. No restrictions to date, language, or article type were applied. Unpublished data were collected from authors of the identified studies. We extracted unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) from the identified studies and calculated ORs when they were not reported. We assessed study quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and study heterogeneity using I (2) statistics. A random-effects model was used to calculate pooled ORs. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017073368). To address the fact that the ORs obtained in the meta-analysis were adjusted for confounders that inevitably varied across studies, we did a population-based study of individuals in multiple national registers in Sweden. We calculated an unadjusted OR and an OR that was simultaneously adjusted for all confounders identified in a directed acyclic graph based on the studies of asthma and ADHD identified in our systematic review.Findings: We identified 2649 potentially eligible citations, from which we obtained 49 datasets including a total of 210 363 participants with ADHD and 3 115 168 without. The pooled unadjusted OR was 1.66 (95% CI 1.22-2.26; I-2 = 99.47) and the pooled adjusted OR was 1.53 (1.41-1.65; I-2 = 50.76), indicating a significant association between asthma and ADHD. Possible lack of representativeness of the study population was detected with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale in 42 of 49 datasets. In the population-based study, we included 1 575 377 individuals born between Jan 1, 1992, and Dec 31, 2006, of whom 259 253 (16.5%) had asthma and 57 957 (3.7%) had ADHD. Asthma was significantly associated with ADHD (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.57-1.63) in the crude model adjusting for sex and year of birth, and this association remained significant after simultaneous adjustment for all covariates (1.45, 1.41-10.48).Interpretation: The combined results of the meta-analysis and the population-based study support a significant association between asthma and ADHD, which remained even after simultaneously controlling for several possible confounders in the population-based study. Awareness of this association might help to reduce delay in the diagnosis of both ADHD and asthma.
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  • Fazel, Seena, et al. (författare)
  • Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]) : a derivation and validation study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 4:6, s. 461-468
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Current approaches to stratify patients with psychiatric disorders into groups on the basis of violence risk are limited by inconsistency, variable accuracy, and unscalability. To address the need for a scalable and valid tool to assess violence risk in patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we describe the derivation of a score based on routinely collected factors and present findings from external validation.Methods: On the basis of a national cohort of 75 158 Swedish individuals aged 15-65 years with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder) with 574 018 patient episodes between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2008, we developed predictive models for violent offending (primary outcome) within 1 year of hospital discharge for inpatients or clinical contact with psychiatric services for outpatients (patient episode) through linkage of population-based registers. We developed a derivation model to determine the relative influence of prespecified criminal history and sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, which are mostly routinely collected, and then tested it in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of violent offending at 1 year using specified risk cutoffs.Findings: Of the cohort of 75 158 patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we assigned 58 771 (78%) to the derivation sample and 16 387 (22%) to the validation sample. In the derivation sample, 830 (1%) individuals committed a violent offence within 12 months of their patient episode. We developed a 16-item model. The strongest predictors of violent offending within 12 months were conviction for previous violent crime (adjusted odds ratio 5 . 03 [95% CI 4.23-5.98]; p < 0.0001), male sex (2.32 [1.91-2.81]; p < 0.0001), and age (0.63 per 10 years of age [0.58-0.67]; p < 0.0001). In external validation, the model showed good measures of discrimination (c-index 0.89 [0.85-0.93]) and calibration. For risk of violent offending at 1 year, with a 5% cutoff, sensitivity was 62% (95% CI 55-68) and specificity was 94% (93-94). The positive predictive value was 11% and the negative predictive value was more than 99%. We used the model to generate a simple web-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]).Interpretation: We have developed a prediction score in a national cohort of patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, which can be used as an adjunct to decision making in clinical practice by identifying those who are at low risk of violent offending. The low positive predictive value suggests that further clinical assessment in individuals at high risk of violent offending is required to establish who might benefit from additional risk management. Further validation in other countries is needed. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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