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- Futter, Martyn, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Great Lakes Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0380-1330. ; 39, s. 19-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality of the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, Canada, were assessed for the period 2001-2100, by integrating two models, HBV and INCA-P, and using statistically downscaled data from the Global Circulation Model CGCM3 for two IPCC scenarios (A1b and A2). The effectiveness of catchment management strategies was assessed across the 21st century by simulating controls on sewage treatment works and fertiliser applications, and implementing buffer strips and bank erosion controls. Both IPCC scenarios projected greatest precipitation increases during winter (highest in A2), and greatest rises in temperature during summer (highest in A1b) throughout the 21st century. Under both IPCC scenarios, the greater winter precipitation and warmer temperatures resulted both in higher winter flows and in an earlier spring snowmelt event Under scenario A2, the flow regime ceased to represent a river with a significant snowmelt influence by the 2090s. Increasing summer temperatures reduced summer flows (greater under A1b). Despite variability between IPCC scenarios, both projected increases in annual TP loadings into Lake Simcoe throughout the 21st century (greatest during winter). Management scenarios reduced, but did not fully compensate for, the impact of climate change upon Black River TP loads throughout the 21st century. Winter increases were still observed, due to high rainfall and flow. This climatic impact has significant implications for the current management plans which aim to reduce TP loads to the Lake by 30 tonnes. Mitigation strategies should therefore focus on methods for reducing TP loadings during wetter conditions. (c) 2012 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 2. |
- Oni, Stephen, et al.
(författare)
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Landscape-scale control of carbon budget of Lake Simcoe: A process-based modelling approach
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Great Lakes Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0380-1330. ; 37, s. 160-165
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an application of the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon (INCA-C) to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in two main tributaries of Lake Simcoe. This is the first application of the INCA-C model to a large watershed with mixed agricultural, urban and forest land use. Understanding DOC dynamics in the Lake Simcoe watershed will aid in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of organic and metal contaminant transport in the watershed which should, in turn, lead to improved watershed management. We were able to successfully simulate flows in the Beaver River and to capture the seasonal and inter-annual patterns in DOC concentration in the Beaver and White Creeks, two of Lake Simcoe's major tributaries. Sensitivity analysis showed the importance of hydrology and land use in controlling surface water DOC. The success of the model application presented here suggests that some of the same processes which control DOC in headwater watersheds are also operating in larger river basins. (C) 2010 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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