| 1. |
- Comolli, Chiara Ludovica, et al.
(author)
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Beyond the Economic Gaze : Childbearing during and after recessions in the Nordic countries
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This study investigates fertility responses to the business cycle in the Nordic countries by comparing period variation in women’s childbearing propensity. We harmonize register data from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to compare childbearing in the aftermath of the two most recent crises that hit those economies: the 1990s and 2010s. We use event-history techniques to present parity-specific fertility, by calendar year, relative to a defined pre-recession year. We further examine any possible impact of the two recessions by women’s age and education. Results show a large heterogeneity across the five Nordic countries in the childbearing developments after 1990. This variation largely disappears after 2008 when period trends in birth hazards become more similar across countries. Likewise, the educational differences that characterized the variation in childbearing relative risk after 1990 considerably diminish in the years after 2010, especially for first and second births. Economic theories do not suffice to explain this reversal from the heterogeneity of the 1990s to the homogeneity of the 2010s in the childbearing response to recession episodes across countries and socioeconomic groups. Our findings suggest the need to expand the theoretical framework explaining the cyclicality of fertility towards the perception of economic and welfare uncertainty.
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| 2. |
- Fallesen, Peter
(author)
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Criminal Justice Involvement, Transition to Fatherhood, and the Demographic Foundation of the Intergenerational Transmission of Crime
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Most analyses of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts compare outcomes of the second generation to the criminal history of the first generation. Such analyses ignore potential differential fertility and family formation processes and exclude childless individuals. Ignoring the demographic process underlying transmission introduces selection bias into estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts insofar as the first generation’s criminal history affects family formation and the probability of parenthood. In this study, we use a cohort of all Danish men born 1965-1973 including complete fertility information and criminal justice history to account for bias caused by differential selection into fatherhood across criminal histories. We demonstrate that seriousness of criminal justice involvement is associated with earlier transition to fatherhood but ultimately higher levels of childlessness. Criminal activity prior to the onset of transition to fatherhood predicts ultimate childlessness. Conditioned on becoming a father, men with criminal justice histories have a similar number of children as men without a history of criminal justice contacts. Ultimately, the findings suggest that existing estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts are overestimated when considered at the population level due to differential probability of ever becoming a father.
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| 3. |
- Fallesen, Peter
(author)
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Decline inrate of divorce and separation filings in Denmark in 2020 compared to previous years
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The radical changes to everyday life brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of non-family social spheres in particular may have impacted marriage dynamics. We provide evidence on the monthly rates of initiation of divorce and separation filings in Denmark for the period 2016-2020 to examine how filing behavior changed during 2020 compared to the four previous years. Because filing rates precedes a divorce, rates reflect more precise the temporal dynamic of divorce initiation. Rates of initiation of divorce filings declined in 2020 to the lowest level in the period 2016-2020. On average, monthly rates in 2020 were 7 percent lower than 2019 rates and 20 percent lower than 2016 rates. There is little indication of the COVID-19 pandemic having an immediate influence on divorce dynamics, although the filing rate was more depressed during lockdown periods.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Fallesen, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Explaining the consequences of imprisonment for union formation and dissolution in Denmark
- 2015
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Imprisonment reduces men’s chances on the marriage market and increases their divorce risk, but existing research is, with a few notable exceptions, silent about the underlying mechanisms driving these effects. Serving a prison sentence at home under electronic monitoring could mitigate the negative effects of imprisonment on union formation and dissolution, as serving a sentence at home does not separate spouses and does not impair human capital to the same degree as imprisonment. This article studies the effect of electronic monitoring as a noncustodial alternative to imprisonment on the risk of relationship dissolution and being single, and analyzes the mechanisms through which imprisonment could affect these outcomes. We exploit a penal reform that expanded the use of electronic monitoring to address nonrandom selection into electronic monitoring instead of in prison. Results from a sample of 2,664 men show that electronic monitoring significantly and persistently lowers the risk both of being single and of becoming single during the first four years following conviction. We further show that electronic monitoring lowers these risks because offenders who serve their prison sentence at home under electronic monitoring do not experience the same degree of human capital depletion and the strain of spousal separation as imprisoned offenders do. We find no evidence of a social stigma effect of imprisonment on union formation and dissolution once we control for the stigma of a criminal conviction. The results show that a tool used to promote decarceration trends also secure better relationship outcomes of convicted men.
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| 6. |
- Fallesen, Peter
(author)
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Institutional Persistence : Involvementswith Child Protective Services, the Criminal JusticeSystem, and Mental Health Servicesacross Childhood, Adolescence, and Early Adulthoodin Denmark
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The pairwise overlaps in system involvement between child protective services, mental health services, and the criminal justice system is well-documented. Yet, less is known about how contact to these three systems evolves as children age, and how children’s trajectories through these institutions should be conceptualized. In this article, we use administrative data on the full population of Danish children born 1982-1995 that had contact to at least one of three systems before turning 21. Theoretically, we argue that children’s trajectories of institutional contacts can be understood as a moral career as suggested by Goffman (1959). Empirically, we study how children move between and are retained within the three systems across childhood. We find that early contact originates with child protective services but branch out through both overlap and transitions to the other systems. Further, across age there is high levels of retention within the systems, and clear gendered dynamics play out as children age. We argue that children’s trajectories across age can be viewed as moving from a position as a subject at risk to a position as subject of risk.
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| 7. |
- Fallesen, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Parental Welfare Dependency and Children's Educational Attainment in Denmark
- 2018
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Children of welfare recipients attain less education than do children whose parents do not receive welfare. In this study, we build on Boudon’s (1974) distinction between primary and secondary effects of social background on educational attainment to develop a theoretical argument concerning how parental welfare dependency may affect children’s educational performance and attainment, and test the argument empirically using Danish administrative data. We consider four educational outcomes: mandatory school leaving GPA, enrolling in an upper secondary program before turning 21, and having obtained an upper secondary education at age 21, and starting a tertiary education before turning 22. To control for selection into family contexts and other family-level confounders, we rely on sibling fixed effects models and control for endowments at births using birthweight. Duration of parental welfare dependency negatively affects likelihood of enrolling in, and completing, upper secondary education at age 21 for children whose parents had education above primary level. Parental welfare dependency does not substantially affect GPA, and only paternal welfare dependency affects the likelihood of enrolling in tertiary programs. Results indicate that duration of parental welfare dependency does not lower educational performance, and mainly lowers attainment of upper secondary degrees for individuals who never would progress beyond upper secondary level.
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| 8. |
- Fallesen, Peter
(author)
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Who Reacts to Less Restrictive Divorce Laws?
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Objective: To study how divorce behavior in Denmark changed following a July 2013 reform that repealed mandatory separation periods for uncontested divorces, instead allowing for immediate administrative divorce.Background: Most countries have mandatory separation periods that couples undergo before they can divorce. Separation allows couples a grace-period, during which they may reconcile and stay together. Yet, the impact of separation periods on divorce risk remains understudied. Methods: Using monthly time series data on divorce rates from 2007-2018 (T=144), the research brief estimates the size and shape of the policy impact of the July 2013 reform. Using monthly administrative population data on all ever-married couples (N*T=40,431,848) the study further calculates the average characteristics of married couples in Denmark who would have remained together absent the reform.Results: After an initial spike in the divorce rate driven by couples divorcing earlier, the divorce rate settled at a 9.7 percent higher level compared to pre-reform. Couples who divorced because of the reform had been married for fewer years, were ethnic Danish, and had high school degree as highest educational level.Conclusion: Mandatory separation periods keep a minor, but substantial, share of potential divorcees together.
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| 9. |
- Landerso, R, et al.
(author)
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Psychiatric Hospital Admission and Later Mental Health, Crime, and Labor Market Outcomes.
- 2016
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This paper studies the effects of an admission to a psychiatric hospital on subsequent psychiatric treatments, self-inflicted harm, crime, and labor market outcomes. To circumvent non-random selection into hospital admission we use a measure of hospital occupancy rates the weeks prior to a patient’s first contact with a psychiatric hospital as an instrument. Admission reduces criminal and self-harming behavior substantially in the short run, but leads to higher re-admission rates and lower labor market attachment in the long run. Effects are heterogeneous across observable and unobservable patient characteristics. We also identify positive externalities of admissions on spouses’ employment rates.
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| 10. |
- Norlund Vering Johansen, Simone, et al.
(author)
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Household Economic Exclusion Among Danish Children : Evaluating Independent and Joint Household Risk of Income Poverty and Parental Labor Market Exclusion over the Course of Childhood
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Low household income and social exclusion increase children’s risk for unsuccessful transitions to adulthood. Yet, we know little about children’s cumulative risk of experiencing poverty and parental labor market exclusion during childhood, and to what extent these circumstances co-occur. Using synthetic cohort lifetables and administrative data, we estimate annual separate and joint cumulative risks for experiencing living in a household with income below the OECD poverty line (poverty) and living in a low-work intensity household (labor market exclusion) for children born in Denmark from 2003-2018. Our results show that similar children are identified by both indicators, with the largest overlap between the joint indicator of both poverty and labor market exclusion (economic exclusion) and the income poverty indicator. Further, considering estimates produced from poverty and labor market exclusion measures, as well as from a combined measure, helps to demonstrate the role of business cycle volatility in each—procyclical with respect to poverty and countercyclical with respect labor market exclusion. Linking multiple indicators makes it easier to distinguish long-term trends in the cumulative risk of childhood poverty and the impact of changes to levels of welfare payments from short-term fluctuations caused by changes in income levels due to variation in labor market tightness.
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