| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 3. |
- Schweinsberg, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Same data, different conclusions : Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. - : Elsevier BV. - 0749-5978 .- 1095-9920. ; 165, s. 228-249
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists' gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for orga-nizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed.
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| 4. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(författare)
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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years
- 2017
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
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| 5. |
- Jones, Amy M., et al.
(författare)
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SDSS-IV from 2014 to 2016 : A Detailed Demographic Comparison over Three Years
- 2023
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - 0004-6280. ; 135:1054
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) is one of the largest international astronomy organizations. We present demographic data based on surveys of its members from 2014, 2015 and 2016, during the fourth phase of SDSS (SDSS-IV). We find about half of SDSS-IV collaboration members were based in North America, a quarter in Europe, and the remainder in Asia and Central and South America. Overall, 26%-36% are women (from 2014 to 2016), up to 2% report non-binary genders. 11%-14% report that they are racial or ethnic minorities where they live. The fraction of women drops with seniority, and is also lower among collaboration leadership. Men in SDSS-IV were more likely to report being in a leadership role, and for the role to be funded and formally recognized. SDSS-IV collaboration members are twice as likely to have a parent with a college degree, than the general population, and are ten times more likely to have a parent with a PhD. This trend is slightly enhanced for female collaboration members. Despite this, the fraction of first generation college students is significant (31%). This fraction increased among collaboration members who are racial or ethnic minorities (40%-50%), and decreased among women (15%-25%). SDSS-IV implemented many inclusive policies and established a dedicated committee, the Committee on INclusiveness in SDSS. More than 60% of the collaboration agree that the collaboration is inclusive; however, collaboration leadership more strongly agree with this than the general membership. In this paper, we explain these results in full, including the history of inclusive efforts in SDSS-IV. We conclude with a list of suggested recommendations based on our findings, which can be used to improve equity and inclusion in large astronomical collaborations, which we argue is not only moral, but will also optimize their scientific output.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Iyadurai, Lalitha, et al.
(författare)
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Intrusive memories of trauma : A target for research bridging cognitive science and its clinical application.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Psychology Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0272-7358 .- 1873-7811. ; 69, s. 67-82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intrusive memories of a traumatic event can be distressing and disruptive, and comprise a core clinical feature of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Intrusive memories involve mental imagery-based impressions that intrude into mind involuntarily, and are emotional. Here we consider how recent advances in cognitive science have fueled our understanding of the development and possible treatment of intrusive memories of trauma. We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed, selecting articles published from 2008 to 2018 that used the terms "trauma" AND ("intrusive memories" OR "involuntary memories") in their abstract or title. First, we discuss studies that investigated internal (neural, hormonal, psychophysiological, and cognitive) processes that contribute to intrusive memory development. Second, we discuss studies that targeted these processes using behavioural/pharmacological interventions to reduce intrusive memories. Third, we consider possible clinical implications of this work and highlight some emerging research avenues for treatment and prevention, supplemented by new data to examine some unanswered questions. In conclusion, we raise the possibility that intrusive memories comprise an alternative, possibly more focused, target in translational research endeavours, rather than only targeting overall symptoms of disorders such as PTSD. If so, relatively simple approaches could help to address the need for easy-to-deliver, widely-scalable trauma interventions.
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| 8. |
- James, Ella L., et al.
(författare)
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The trauma film paradigm as an experimental psychopathology model of psychological trauma : intrusive memories and beyond
- 2016
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Ingår i: Clinical Psychology Review. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0272-7358 .- 1873-7811. ; 47, s. 106-142
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- A better understanding of psychological trauma is fundamental to clinical psychology. Following traumatic event(s), a clinically significant number of people develop symptoms, including those of Acute Stress Disorder and/or Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. The trauma film paradigm offers an experimental psychopathology model to study both exposure and reactions to psychological trauma, including the hallmark symptom of intrusive memories. We reviewed 74 articles that have used this paradigm since the earliest review (Holmes & Bourne, 2008) until July 2014. Highlighting the different stages of trauma processing, i.e. pre-, pert- and post-trauma, the studies are divided according to manipulations before, during and after film viewing, for experimental as well as correlational designs. While the majority of studies focussed on the frequency of intrusive memories, other reactions to trauma were also modelled. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the trauma film paradigm as an experimental psychopathology model of trauma, consider ethical issues, and suggest future directions. By understanding the basic mechanisms underlying trauma symptom development, we can begin to translate findings from the laboratory to the clinic, test innovative science-driven interventions, and in the future reduce the debilitating effects of psychopathology following stressful and/or traumatic events. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 9. |
- Gunner, Richard M., et al.
(författare)
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Activity of loggerhead turtles during the U-shaped dive: insights using angular velocity metrics
- 2021
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Ingår i: Endangered Species Research. - : INTER-RESEARCH. - 1863-5407 .- 1613-4796. ; 45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the behavioural ecology of endangered taxa can inform conservation strategies. The activity budgets of the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta are still poorly understood because many tracking methods show only horizontal displacement and ignore dives and associated behaviours. However, time-depth recorders have enabled researchers to identify flat, U-shaped dives (or type 1a dives) and these are conventionally labelled as resting dives on the seabed because they involve no vertical displacement of the animal. Video- and acceleration-based studies have demonstrated this is not always true. Focusing on sea turtles nesting on the Cabo Verde archipelago, we describe a new metric derived from magnetometer data, absolute angular velocity, that integrates indices of angular rotation in the horizontal plane to infer activity. Using this metric, we evaluated the variation in putative resting behaviours during the bottom phase of type 1a dives for 5 individuals over 13 to 17 d at sea during a single inter-nesting interval (over 75 turtle d in total). We defined absolute resting within the bottom phase of type 1a dives as periods with no discernible acceleration or angular movement. Whilst absolute resting constituted a significant proportion of each turtles time budget for this 1a dive type, turtles allocated 16-38% of their bottom time to activity, with many dives being episodic, comprised of intermittent bouts of rest and rotational activity. This implies that previously considered resting behaviours are complex and need to be accounted for in energy budgets, particularly since energy budgets may impact conservation strategies.
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| 10. |
- Jacobs, Ivo, et al.
(författare)
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Object caching in corvids: Incidence and significance.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Behavioural Processes. - : Elsevier BV. - 0376-6357. ; 102, s. 25-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Food caching is a paramount model for studying relations between cognition, brain organisation and ecology in corvids. In contrast, behaviour towards inedible objects is poorly examined and understood. We review the literature on object caching in corvids and other birds, and describe an exploratory study on object caching in ravens, New Caledonian crows and jackdaws. The captive adult birds were presented with an identical set of novel objects adjacent to food. All three species cached objects, which shows the behaviour not to be restricted to juveniles, food cachers, tool-users or individuals deprived of cacheable food. The pattern of object interaction and caching did not mirror the incidence of food caching: the intensely food caching ravens indeed showed highest object caching incidence, but the rarely food caching jackdaws cached objects to similar extent as the moderate food caching New Caledonian crows. Ravens and jackdaws preferred objects with greater sphericity, but New Caledonian crows preferred stick-like objects (similar to tools). We suggest that the observed object caching might have been expressions of exploration or play, and deserves being studied in its own right because of its potential significance for tool-related behaviour and learning, rather than as an over-spill from food-caching research. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: CO3 2013.
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