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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Datry, T., et al.
(författare)
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A global analysis of terrestrial plant litter dynamics in non-perennial waterways
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 497-503
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Perennial rivers and streams make a disproportionate contribution to global carbon (C) cycling. However, the contribution of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which sometimes cease to flow and can dry completely, is largely ignored although they represent over half the global river network. Substantial amounts of terrestrial plant litter (TPL) accumulate in dry riverbeds and, upon rewetting, this material can undergo rapid microbial processing. We present the results of a global research collaboration that collected and analysed TPL from 212 dry riverbeds across major environmental gradients and climate zones. We assessed litter decomposability by quantifying the litter carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and oxygen (O2) consumption in standardized assays and estimated the potential short-term CO2 emissions during rewetting events. Aridity, cover of riparian vegetation, channel width and dry-phase duration explained most variability in the quantity and decomposability of plant litter in IRES. Our estimates indicate that a single pulse of CO2 emission upon litter rewetting contributes up to 10% of the daily CO2 emission from perennial rivers and stream, particularly in temperate climates. This indicates that the contributions of IRES should be included in global C-cycling assessments.
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- Travis, R C, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma phyto-oestrogens and prostate cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
- 2009
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Ingår i: British journal of cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1532-1827 .- 0007-0920. ; 100:11, s. 1817-1823
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examined plasma concentrations of phyto-oestrogens in relation to risk for subsequent prostate cancer in a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Concentrations of isoflavones genistein, daidzein and equol, and that of lignans enterolactone and enterodiol, were measured in plasma samples for 950 prostate cancer cases and 1042 matched control participants. Relative risks (RRs) for prostate cancer in relation to plasma concentrations of these phyto-oestrogens were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Higher plasma concentrations of genistein were associated with lower risk of prostate cancer: RR among men in the highest vs the lowest fifth, 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.96, P trend=0.03). After adjustment for potential confounders this RR was 0.74 (95% CI 0.54-1.00, P trend=0.05). No statistically significant associations were observed for circulating concentrations of daidzein, equol, enterolactone or enterodiol in relation to overall risk for prostate cancer. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in these results by age at blood collection or country of recruitment, nor by cancer stage or grade. These results suggest that higher concentrations of circulating genistein may reduce the risk of prostate cancer but do not support an association with plasma lignans.
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- Tsilidis, K. K., et al.
(författare)
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Oral contraceptive use and reproductive factors and risk of ovarian cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2011
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - London : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1532-1827 .- 0007-0920. ; 105:9, s. 1436-1442
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: It is well established that parity and use of oral contraceptives reduce the risk of ovarian cancer, but the associations with other reproductive variables are less clear. METHODS: We examined the associations of oral contraceptive use and reproductive factors with ovarian cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 327 396 eligible women, 878 developed ovarian cancer over an average of 9 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models stratified by centre and age, and adjusted for smoking status, body mass index, unilateral ovariectomy, simple hysterectomy, menopausal hormone therapy, and mutually adjusted for age at menarche, age at menopause, number of full-term pregnancies and duration of oral contraceptive use. RESULTS: Women who used oral contraceptives for 10 or more years had a significant 45% (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41-0.75) lower risk compared with users of 1 year or less (P-trend, <0.01). Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had a 29% (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.87) lower risk, with an 8% reduction in risk for each additional pregnancy. A high age at menopause was associated with a higher risk of ovarian cancer (>52 vs <= 45 years: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.06-1.99; P-trend, 0.02). Age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, incomplete pregnancies and breastfeeding were not associated with risk. CONCLUSION: This study shows a strong protective association of oral contraceptives and parity with ovarian cancer risk, a higher risk with a late age at menopause, and no association with other reproductive factors. British Journal of Cancer (2011) 105, 1436-1442. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.371 www.bjcancer.com Published online 13 September 2011 (C) 2011 Cancer Research UK
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