| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(author)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 3. |
- Lee, Jinhee, et al.
(author)
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Genetic Variation and Autism : A Field Synopsis and Systematic Meta-Analysis
- 2020
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In: Brain Sciences. - : MDPI. - 2076-3425. ; 10:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study aimed to verify noteworthy findings between genetic risk factors and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) by employing the false positive report probability (FPRP) and the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP). PubMed and the Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) catalog were searched from inception to 1 August, 2019. We included meta-analyses on genetic factors of ASD of any study design. Overall, twenty-seven meta-analyses articles from literature searches, and four manually added articles from the GWAS catalog were re-analyzed. This showed that five of 31 comparisons for meta-analyses of observational studies, 40 out of 203 comparisons for the GWAS meta-analyses, and 18 out of 20 comparisons for the GWAS catalog, respectively, had noteworthy estimations under both Bayesian approaches. In this study, we found noteworthy genetic comparisons highly related to an increased risk of ASD. Multiple genetic comparisons were shown to be associated with ASD risk; however, genuine associations should be carefully verified and understood.
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| 4. |
- Lee, San, et al.
(author)
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Impact of data extraction errors in meta-analyses on the association between depression and peripheral inflammatory biomarkers : an umbrella review
- 2023
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In: Psychological Medicine. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0033-2917 .- 1469-8978. ; 53:5, s. 2017-2030
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that alterations in inflammatory biomarkers are important in depression. However, previous meta-analyses disagree on these associations, and errors in data extraction may account for these discrepancies.METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library were searched from database inception to 14 January 2020. Meta-analyses of observational studies examining the association between depression and levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin 1-β (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were eligible. Errors were classified as follows: incorrect sample sizes, incorrectly used standard deviation, incorrect participant inclusion, calculation error, or analysis with insufficient data. We determined their impact on the results after correction thereof.RESULTS: Errors were noted in 14 of the 15 meta-analyses included. Across 521 primary studies, 118 (22.6%) showed the following errors: incorrect sample sizes (20 studies, 16.9%), incorrect use of standard deviation (35 studies, 29.7%), incorrect participant inclusion (7 studies, 5.9%), calculation errors (33 studies, 28.0%), and analysis with insufficient data (23 studies, 19.5%). After correcting these errors, 11 (29.7%) out of 37 pooled effect sizes changed by a magnitude of more than 0.1, ranging from 0.11 to 1.15. The updated meta-analyses showed that elevated levels of TNF- α, IL-6, CRP, but not IL-1β, are associated with depression.CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that data extraction errors in meta-analyses can impact findings. Efforts to reduce such errors are important in studies of the association between depression and peripheral inflammatory biomarkers, for which high heterogeneity and conflicting results have been continuously reported.
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| 5. |
- Kim, Jae Han, et al.
(author)
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Environmental Risk Factors, Protective Factors, and Biomarkers for Postpartum Depressive Symptoms : An Umbrella Review
- 2022
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In: Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0149-7634 .- 1873-7528. ; 140
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We performed an umbrella review on environmental risk/protective factors and biomarkers for postpartum depressive symptoms to establish a hierarchy of evidence. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception until 12 January 2021. We included systematic reviews providing meta-analyses related to our research objectives. Methodological quality was assessed by AMSTAR 2, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated by GRADE. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021230784). We identified 30 articles, which included 45 environmental risk/protective factors (154594 cases, 7302273 population) and 9 biomarkers (2018 cases, 16757 population). The credibility of evidence was convincing (class I) for antenatal anxiety (OR 2.49, 1.91-3.25) and psychological violence (OR 1.93, 1.54-2.42); and highly suggestive (class II) for intimate partner violence experience (OR 2.86, 2.12-3.87), intimate partner violence during pregnancy (RR 2.81, 2.11-3.74), smoking during pregnancy (OR 2.39, 1.78-3.2), history of premenstrual syndrome (OR 2.2, 1.81-2.68), any type of violence experience (OR 2.04, 1.72-2.41), primiparity compared to multiparity (RR 1.76, 1.59-1.96), and unintended pregnancy (OR 1.53, 1.35-1.75).
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| 6. |
- Koyanagi, Ai, et al.
(author)
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Chronic Physical Conditions, Multimorbidity, and Mild Cognitive Impairment in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- 2018
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In: Journal of The American Geriatrics Society. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0002-8614 .- 1532-5415. ; 66:4, s. 721-727
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between chronic physical conditions and multimorbidity and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).DESIGN: Nationally representative, cross-sectional, community-based study.SETTING: Six countries that participated in the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health.PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 50 and older (N=32,715; mean age 62.1 ± 15.6; 51.7% female).MEASUREMENTS: The definition of MCI was based on the recommendations of the National Institute on Ageing and Alzheimer's Association. Ten chronic conditions were assessed (angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, cataract, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, edentulism, hearing problems, hypertension, stroke). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the association between chronic physical conditions, multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions), and MCI.RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 49.8% (95% confidence interval (CI)=48.1-51.5%) and of MCI was 15.3% (95% CI=14.4-16.3%). After adjustment for potential confounders, edentulism (odds ratio (OR)=1.24), arthritis (OR=1.24), chronic lung disease (OR=1.29), cataract (OR=1.33), stroke (OR=1.94), hearing problems (OR=2.27), and multimorbidity (OR=1.40) were significantly associated with MCI. There was a gradual increase in the likelihood of MCI (1 condition: OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.03-1.42; ≥4 conditions: OR=2.07, 95% CI=1.70-2.52).CONCLUSION: These results highlight the need to investigate the underlying mechanisms linking chronic conditions and MCI and whether prevention or treatment of chronic conditions or multimorbidity can reduce the onset of cognitive decline and subsequent dementia, especially in LMICs.
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| 7. |
- Yoon, Sojung, et al.
(author)
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Differential expression of MicroRNAs in Alzheimer’s disease : a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2022
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In: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Nature. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 27, s. 2405-2413
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Alzheimer’s disease (AD) results in progressive cognitive decline owing to the accumulation of amyloid plaques and hyperphosphorylated tau. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have attracted attention as a putative diagnostic and therapeutic target for neurodegenerative diseases. However, existing meta-analyses on AD and its association with miRNAs have produced inconsistent results. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the magnitude and consistency of differences in miRNA levels between AD patients, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients and healthy controls (HC). Articles investigating miRNA levels in blood, brain tissue, or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of AD and MCI patients versus HC were systematically searched in PubMed/Medline from inception to February 16th, 2021. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses were complemented with the I2 statistic to measure the heterogeneity, assessment of publication bias, sensitivity subgroup analyses (AD severity, brain region, post-mortem versus ante-mortem specimen for CSF and type of analysis used to quantify miRNA) and functional enrichment pathway analysis. Of the 1512 miRNAs included in 61 articles, 425 meta-analyses were performed on 334 miRNAs. Fifty-six miRNAs were significantly upregulated (n = 40) or downregulated (n = 16) in AD versus HC and all five miRNAs were significantly upregulated in MCI versus HC. Functional enrichment analysis confirmed that pathways related to apoptosis, immune response and inflammation were statistically enriched with upregulated pathways in participants with AD relative to HC. This study confirms that miRNAs’ expression is altered in AD and MCI compared to HC. These findings open new diagnostic and therapeutic perspectives for this disorder.
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