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Sökning: WFRF:(Biswas Rahul)

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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
  • Abolfathi, Bela, et al. (författare)
  • The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 253:31
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg2, as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg2. We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.
  • Alves, Catarina S., et al. (författare)
  • Considerations for Optimizing the Photometric Classification of Supernovae from the Rubin Observatory
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 258:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will increase the number of observed supernovae (SNe) by an order of magnitude; however, it is impossible to spectroscopically confirm the class for all SNe discovered. Thus, photometric classification is crucial, but its accuracy depends on the not-yet-finalized observing strategy of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We quantitatively analyze the impact of the LSST observing strategy on SNe classification using simulated multiband light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). First, we augment the simulated training set to be representative of the photometric redshift distribution per SNe class, the cadence of observations, and the flux uncertainty distribution of the test set. Then we build a classifier using the photometric transient classification library snmachine, based on wavelet features obtained from Gaussian process fits, yielding a similar performance to the winning PLAsTiCC entry. We study the classification performance for SNe with different properties within a single simulated observing strategy. We find that season length is important, with light curves of 150 days yielding the highest performance. Cadence also has an important impact on SNe classification; events with median inter-night gap <3.5 days yield higher classification performance. Interestingly, we find that large gaps (>10 days) in light-curve observations do not impact performance if sufficient observations are available on either side, due to the effectiveness of the Gaussian process interpolation. This analysis is the first exploration of the impact of observing strategy on photometric SN classification with LSST.
  • Bellm, Eric C., et al. (författare)
  • The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
  • Bianco, Federica B., et al. (författare)
  • Presto-Color : A Photometric Survey Cadence for Explosive Physics and Fast Transients
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:1000
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We identify minimal observing cadence requirements that enable photometric astronomical surveys to detect and recognize fast and explosive transients and fast transient features. Observations in two different filters within a short time window (e.g., g-and-i, or r-and-z, within <0.5 hr) and a repeat of one of those filters with a longer time window (e.g., >1.5 hr) are desirable for this purpose. Such an observing strategy delivers both the color and light curve evolution of transients on the same night. This allows the identification and initial characterization of fast transient-or fast features of longer timescale transients-such as rapidly declining supernovae, kilonovae, and the signatures of SN ejecta interacting with binary companion stars or circumstellar material. Some of these extragalactic transients are intrinsically rare and generally all hard to find, thus upcoming surveys like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) could dramatically improve our understanding of their origin and properties. We colloquially refer to such a strategy implementation for the LSST as the Presto-Color strategy (rapid-color). This cadence's minimal requirements allow for overall optimization of a survey for other science goals.
  • Biswas, Rahul, et al. (författare)
  • Enabling Catalog Simulations of Transient and Variable Sources Based on LSST Cadence Strategies
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 247:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) project will conduct a 10 year multi-band survey starting in 2022. Observing strategies for this survey are being actively investigated, and the science capabilities can be best forecasted on the basis of simulated strategies from the LSST Operations Simulator (OpSim). OpSim simulates a stochastic realization of the sequence of LSST pointings over the survey duration, and is based on a model of the observatory (including telescope) and historical data of observational conditions. OpSim outputs contain a record of each simulated pointing of the survey along with a complete characterization of the pointing in terms of observing conditions, and some useful quantities derived from the characteristics of the pointing. Thus, each record can be efficiently used to derive the properties of observations of all astrophysical sources found in that pointing. However, in order to obtain the time series of observations (light curves) of a set of sources, it is often more convenient to compute all observations of an astrophysical source, and iterate over sources. In this document, we describe the open source python package OpSimSummary, which allows for a convenient reordering. The objectives of this package are to provide users with an Application Programming Interface for accessing all such observations and summarizing this information in the form of intermediate data products usable by third party software such as SNANA, thereby also bridging the gap between official LSST products and preexisting simulation codes.
  • Biswas, Rahul, et al. (författare)
  • Two c's in a pod : cosmology-independent measurement of the Type Ia supernova colour-luminosity relation with a sibling pair
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 509:4, s. 5340-5356
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Using Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) observations, we identify a pair of ‘sibling’ Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), i.e. hosted by the same galaxy at z = 0.0541. They exploded within 200 d from each other at a separation of 0.6arcsec0.6arcsec corresponding to a projected distance of only 0.6 kpc. Performing SALT2 light-curve fits to the gri ZTF photometry, we show that for these equally distant ‘standardizable candles’, there is a difference of 2 mag in their rest-frame B-band peaks, and the fainter supernova (SN) has a significantly red SALT2 colour c = 0.57 ± 0.04, while the stretch values x1 of the two SNe are similar, suggesting that the fainter SN is attenuated by dust in the interstellar medium of the host galaxy. We use these measurements to infer the SALT2 colour standardization parameter, β = 3.5 ± 0.3, independent of the underlying cosmology and Malmquist bias. Assuming the colour excess is entirely due to dust, the result differs by 2σ from the average Milky Way total-to-selective extinction ratio, but is in good agreement with the colour–brightness corrections empirically derived from the most recent SN Ia Hubble–Lemaitre diagram fits. Thus we suggest that SN ‘siblings’, which will increasingly be discovered in the coming years, can be used to probe the validity of the colour and light-curve shape corrections using in SN Ia cosmology while avoiding important systematic effects in their inference from global multiparameter fits to inhomogeneous data sets, and also help constrain the role of interstellar dust in SN Ia cosmology.
  • Biswas, Srijit, et al. (författare)
  • Atom-Efficient Gold(I)-Chloride-Catalyzed Synthesis of alpha-Sulfenylated Carbonyl Compounds from Propargylic Alcohols and Aryl Thiols : Substrate Scope and Experimental and Theoretical Mechanistic Investigation
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Chemistry - A European Journal. - : Wiley. - 0947-6539 .- 1521-3765. ; 19:52, s. 17939-17950
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Gold(I)-chloride-catalyzed synthesis of -sulfenylated carbonyl compounds from propargylic alcohols and aryl thiols showed a wide substrate scope with respect to both propargylic alcohols and aryl thiols. Primary and secondary aromatic propargylic alcohols generated -sulfenylated aldehydes and ketones in 60-97% yield. Secondary aliphatic propargylic alcohols generated -sulfenylated ketones in yields of 47-71%. Different gold sources and ligand effects were studied, and it was shown that gold(I) chloride gave the highest product yields. Experimental and theoretical studies demonstrated that the reaction proceeds in two separate steps. A sulfenylated allylic alcohol, generated by initial regioselective attack of the aryl thiol on the triple bond of the propargylic alcohol, was isolated, evaluated, and found to be an intermediate in the reaction. Deuterium labeling experiments showed that the protons from the propargylic alcohol and aryl thiol were transferred to the 3-position, and that the hydride from the alcohol was transferred to the 2-position of the product. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations showed that the observed regioselectivity of the aryl thiol attack towards the 2-position of propargylic alcohol was determined by a low-energy, five-membered cyclic protodeauration transition state instead of the strained, four-membered cyclic transition state found for attack at the 3-position. Experimental data and DFT calculations supported that the second step of the reaction is initiated by protonation of the double bond of the sulfenylated allylic alcohol with a proton donor coordinated to gold(I) chloride. This in turn allows for a 1,2-hydride shift, generating the final product of the reaction.
  • Biswas, Srijit, et al. (författare)
  • Tandem Pd/Au-Catalyzed Route to alpha-Sulfenylated Carbonyl Compounds from Terminal Propargylic Alcohols and Thiols
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Chemistry - A European Journal. - : Wiley. - 0947-6539 .- 1521-3765. ; 20:8, s. 2159-2163
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • An efficient and highly atom-economical tandem Pd/Au-catalyzed route to -sulfenylated carbonyl compounds from terminal propargylic alcohols and thiols has been developed. This one-step procedure has a wide substrate scope with respect to substituents at the -position of the alcohol. Both aromatic and aliphatic thiols generated the -sulfenylated carbonyl products in good to excellent yields. A mechanism is proposed in which the reaction proceeds through a Pd-catalyzed regioselective hydrothiolation at the terminal triple bond of the propargyl alcohol followed by an Au-catalyzed 1,2-hydride migration.
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