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- Chen, Yuntao, et al.
(författare)
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A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : BMC. - 1741-7015. ; 19:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF >= 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. Conclusions Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.
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| 2. |
- van den Berg, Victor J, et al.
(författare)
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IgM anti-malondialdehyde low density lipoprotein antibody levels indicate coronary heart disease and necrotic core characteristics in the Nordic Diltiazem (NORDIL) study and the Integrated Imaging and Biomarker Study 3 (IBIS-3)
- 2018
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Ingår i: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-3964. ; 36, s. 63-72
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Certain immunoglobulins (Ig) are proposed to have protective functions in atherosclerosis.Objectives: We tested whether serum levels of IgG and IgM autoantibodies against malondialdehyde low density lipoprotein (MDA-LDL) are associated with clinical coronary heart disease (CHD) and unfavorable plaque characteristics.Methods: NORDIL was a prospective study investigating adverse cardiovascular outcomes in hypertensive patients. IBIS-3 analyzed lesions in a non-culprit coronary artery with <50% stenosis using radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (RF-IVUS) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Imaging was repeated after a median of 386?days on rosuvastatin. Associations of antibodies with incident CHD and imaging parameters were assessed in the two sub-studies respectively.Findings: From 10,881 NORDIL patients, 87 had serum sampled at baseline and developed CHD over 4.5 years, matched to 227 controls. Higher titers of IgM anti-MDA-LDL had a protective effect on adverse outcomes, with odds ratio 0.29 (0.11, 0.76; p=0.012; p=0.016 for trend). Therefore, the effect was explored at the lesional level in IBIS-3. 143 patients had blood samples and RF-IVUS measurements available, and NIRS was performed in 90 of these. At baseline, IgM anti-MDA-LDL levels had a strong independent inverse relationship with lesional necrotic core volume (p=0.027) and percentage of plaque occupied by necrotic core (p=0.011), as well as lipid core burden index (p=0.024) in the worst 4 mm segment.Interpretation: Our study supports the hypothesis that lower circulating levels of IgM anti-MDA-LDL are associated with clinical CHD development, and for the first time relates these findings to atherosclerotic plaque characteristics that are linked to vulnerability.
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