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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Zuntini, Alexandre R., et al.
(författare)
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Phylogenomics and the rise of the angiosperms
- 2024
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Ingår i: NATURE. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 629, s. 843-850
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Angiosperms are the cornerstone of most terrestrial ecosystems and human livelihoods(1,2). A robust understanding of angiosperm evolution is required to explain their rise to ecological dominance. So far, the angiosperm tree of life has been determined primarily by means of analyses of the plastid genome(3,4). Many studies have drawn on this foundational work, such as classification and first insights into angiosperm diversification since their Mesozoic origins(5-7). However, the limited and biased sampling of both taxa and genomes undermines confidence in the tree and its implications. Here, we build the tree of life for almost 8,000 (about 60%) angiosperm genera using a standardized set of 353 nuclear genes(8). This 15-fold increase in genus-level sampling relative to comparable nuclear studies(9) provides a critical test of earlier results and brings notable change to key groups, especially in rosids, while substantiating many previously predicted relationships. Scaling this tree to time using 200 fossils, we discovered that early angiosperm evolution was characterized by high gene tree conflict and explosive diversification, giving rise to more than 80% of extant angiosperm orders. Steady diversification ensued through the remaining Mesozoic Era until rates resurged in the Cenozoic Era, concurrent with decreasing global temperatures and tightly linked with gene tree conflict. Taken together, our extensive sampling combined with advanced phylogenomic methods shows the deep history and full complexity in the evolution of a megadiverse clade.
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- Welch, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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JWST Imaging of Earendel, the Extremely Magnified Star at Redshift z=6.2
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 940
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gravitationally lensed star WHL 0137-LS, nicknamed Earendel, was identified with a photometric redshift z (phot) = 6.2 +/- 0.1 based on images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope. Here we present James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Near Infrared Camera images of Earendel in eight filters spanning 0.8-5.0 mu m. In these higher-resolution images, Earendel remains a single unresolved point source on the lensing critical curve, increasing the lower limit on the lensing magnification to mu > 4000 and restricting the source plane radius further to r < 0.02 pc, or similar to 4000 au. These new observations strengthen the conclusion that Earendel is best explained by an individual star or multiple star system and support the previous photometric redshift estimate. Fitting grids of stellar spectra to our photometry yields a stellar temperature of T (eff) similar to 13,000-16,000 K, assuming the light is dominated by a single star. The delensed bolometric luminosity in this case ranges from log(L)=5.8 L-theta, which is in the range where one expects luminous blue variable stars. Follow-up observations, including JWST NIRSpec scheduled for late 2022, are needed to further unravel the nature of this object, which presents a unique opportunity to study massive stars in the first billion years of the universe.
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- Diego, J. M., et al.
(författare)
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JWST's PEARLS : A new lens model for ACT-CL J0102-4915, "El Gordo," and the first red supergiant star at cosmological distances discovered by JWST
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 672
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) data on the massive colliding cluster El Gordo allow for 23 known families of multiply lensed images to be confirmed and for eight new members of these families to be identified. Based on these families, which have been confirmed spectroscopically by MUSE, we derived an initial lens model. This model guided the identification of 37 additional families of multiply lensed galaxies, among which 28 are entirely new systems, and nine were previously known. The initial lens model determined geometric redshifts for the 37 new systems. The geometric redshifts agree reasonably well with spectroscopic or photometric redshifts when those are available. The geometric redshifts enable two additional models that include all 60 families of multiply lensed galaxies spanning a redshift range 2 z z > 0.8 and has an estimated virial mass close the maximum mass allowed by standard cosmological models. The JWST images also reveal the presence of small-mass perturbers that produce small lensing distortions. The smallest of these is consistent with being a dwarf galaxy at z = 0.87 and has an estimated mass of 3.8 x 10(9) M-circle dot, making it the smallest substructure found at z > 0.5. The JWST images also show several candidate caustic-crossing events. One of them is detected at high significance at the expected position of the critical curve and is likely a red supergiant star at z = 2.1878. This would be the first red supergiant found at cosmological distances. The cluster lensing should magnify background objects at z > 6, making more of them visible than in blank fields of a similar size, but there appears to be a deficiency of such objects.
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- Kelly, Patrick L., et al.
(författare)
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Constraints on the Hubble constant from supernova Refsdal's reappearance
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 380:6649
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gravitationally lensed supernova Refsdal appeared in multiple images produced through gravitational lensing by a massive foreground galaxy cluster. After the supernova appeared in 2014, lens models of the galaxy cluster predicted that an additional image of the supernova would appear in 2015, which was subsequently observed. We use the time delays between the images to perform a blinded measurement of the expansion rate of the Universe, quantified by the Hubble constant (H0). Using eight cluster lens models, we infer kilometers per second per megaparsec. Using the two models most consistent with the observations, we find kilometers per second per megaparsec. The observations are best reproduced by models that assign dark-matter halos to individual galaxies and the overall cluster.
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