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Sökning: WFRF:(Butler E.) > Lantbruksvetenskap

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1.
  • Alexander, Peter, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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2.
  • Callaghan, Terry, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-Decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems : Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 40:6, s. 705-716
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding the responses of tundra systemsto global change has global implications. Most tundraregions lack sustained environmental monitoring and oneof the only ways to document multi-decadal change is toresample historic research sites. The International PolarYear (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such researchthrough the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project#512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 paperswithin this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes includeglacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increasedsnow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, andincreased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden;drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availabilityin Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at mostlocations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relativelyminor plant community change at two sites in Greenland tomoderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increasesin shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarcticSweden. The population of geese tripled at one sitein northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plotsdoubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTFstudy forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds andincreases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado overthe next century. In general, results support and provideimproved capacities for validating experimental manipulation,remote sensing, and modeling studies.
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