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App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden

Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982- (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab
Fitipaldi, Hugo (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Hammar, Ulf (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab
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Maziarz, Marlena (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden
Tsereteli, Neli (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Oskolkov, Nikolay (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Bioinformatik,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science,Bioinformatics,Lund University Research Groups,Science for Life Laboratory (SciLifeLab),National Bioinformatics Infrastructure Sweden (NBIS), SciLifeLab,Department of Biology, National Bioinformatics Infrastructure Sweden, Science for Life Laboratory, Lund University, Lund, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden
Varotsis, Georgios (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab
Franks, Camilla A (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden
Nguyen, Diem, PhD (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab,Molekylär epidemiologi
Spiliopoulos, Lampros (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden; Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden; Skane Univ Hosp, Sweden
Adami, Hans-Olov (author)
Karolinska Institutet,Karolinska Institute,Clinical Effectiveness Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, MA, Boston, United States,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,Univ Oslo, Norway; Karolinska Inst, Sweden; Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, MA USA
Björk, Jonas (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för arbets- och miljömedicin,Institutionen för laboratoriemedicin,Medicinska fakulteten,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University,Department of Laboratory Medicine,Faculty of Medicine,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden; Skane Univ Hosp, Sweden
Engblom, Stefan (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Division of Scientific Computing, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Avdelningen för beräkningsvetenskap,Tillämpad beräkningsvetenskap
Fall, Katja, 1971- (author)
Örebro universitet,Örebro University,Karolinska Institute,Institutionen för medicinska vetenskaper,Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden; Integrative Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden,Orebro Univ, Sweden; Karolinska Inst, Sweden
Grimby-Ekman, Anna, 1967 (author)
Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa,Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine
Litton, Jan-Eric (author)
Karolinska Institute,Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden,Karolinska Inst, Sweden
Martinell, Mats, 1971- (author)
Uppsala universitet,Allmänmedicin och preventivmedicin
Oudin, Anna (author)
Umeå universitet,Umeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för arbets- och miljömedicin,Institutionen för laboratoriemedicin,Medicinska fakulteten,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University,Department of Laboratory Medicine,Faculty of Medicine,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa,Lund Univ, Sweden; Umea Univ, Sweden
Sjöström, Torbjörn (author)
Novus Group International AB, Stockholm, Sweden,Novus Grp Int AB, Sweden
Timpka, Toomas (author)
Linköpings universitet,Linköping University,Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden,Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, MA, Boston, United States,Avdelningen för samhälle och hälsa,Medicinska fakulteten,Region Östergötland, Enheten för folkhälsa,Massachusetts Gen Hosp, MA 02114 USA; Harvard Med Sch, MA 02115 USA
Sudre, Carole H (author)
MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Medical Image Computing, University College London, London, United Kingdom; School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,King's College London,UCL, England; UCL, England; Kings Coll London, England
Graham, Mark S (author)
School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,Zoe Global Limited,Kings Coll London, England,ZOE Ltd, England
du Cadet, Julien Lavigne (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
Chan, Andrew T (author)
Harvard Medical School,Massachusetts General Hospital
Davies, Richard (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
Ganesh, Sajaysurya (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
May, Anna (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
Ourselin, Sébastien (author)
School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England
Pujol, Joan Capdevila (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
Selvachandran, Somesh (author)
Zoe Global Limited
Wolf, Jonathan (author)
Zoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England
Spector, Tim D (author)
Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England
Steves, Claire J (author)
Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London,Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England
Gomez, Maria F (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden
Franks, Paul W (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Fall, Tove (author)
Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab,Molekylär epidemiologi,Tove Fall
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2022-04-21
2022
English 12 s.
In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
Close  
  • The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Geriatrik (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Geriatrics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

COVID-19/epidemiology
Hospitals
Humans
Mobile Applications
Sentinel Surveillance
Sweden/epidemiology
Computational models
Epidemiology
Viral infection
Epidemiology
Science & Technology - Other Topics

Publication and Content Type

art (subject category)
ref (subject category)

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