| 1. |
- Berry, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Human postprandial responses to food and potential for precision nutrition
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 26:6, s. 964-973
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Metabolic responses to food influence risk of cardiometabolic disease, but large-scale high-resolution studies are lacking. We recruited n = 1,002 twins and unrelated healthy adults in the United Kingdom to the PREDICT 1 study and assessed postprandial metabolic responses in a clinical setting and at home. We observed large inter-individual variability (as measured by the population coefficient of variation (s.d./mean, %)) in postprandial responses of blood triglyceride (103%), glucose (68%) and insulin (59%) following identical meals. Person-specific factors, such as gut microbiome, had a greater influence (7.1% of variance) than did meal macronutrients (3.6%) for postprandial lipemia, but not for postprandial glycemia (6.0% and 15.4%, respectively); genetic variants had a modest impact on predictions (9.5% for glucose, 0.8% for triglyceride, 0.2% for C-peptide). Findings were independently validated in a US cohort (n = 100 people). We developed a machine-learning model that predicted both triglyceride (r = 0.47) and glycemic (r = 0.77) responses to food intake. These findings may be informative for developing personalized diet strategies. The ClinicalTrials.gov registration identifier is NCT03479866.
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| 2. |
- Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.
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| 3. |
- Merino, Jordi, et al.
(författare)
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Validity of continuous glucose monitoring for categorizing glycemic responses to diet : Implications for use in personalized nutrition
- 2022
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165. ; 115:6, s. 1569-1576
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Continuous glucose monitor (CGM) devices enable characterization of individuals' glycemic variation. However, there are concerns about their reliability for categorizing glycemic responses to foods that would limit their potential application in personalized nutrition recommendations. Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the concordance of 2 simultaneously worn CGM devices in measuring postprandial glycemic responses. Methods: Within ZOE PREDICT (Personalised Responses to Dietary Composition Trial) 1, 394 participants wore 2 CGM devices simultaneously [n = 360 participants with 2 Abbott Freestyle Libre Pro (FSL) devices; n = 34 participants with both FSL and Dexcom G6] for ≤14 d while consuming standardized (n = 4457) and ad libitum (n = 5738) meals. We examined the CV and correlation of the incremental area under the glucose curve at 2 h (glucoseiAUC0-2 h). Within-subject meal ranking was assessed using Kendall τ rank correlation. Concordance between paired devices in time in range according to the American Diabetes Association cutoffs (TIRADA) and glucose variability (glucose CV) was also investigated. Results: The CV of glucoseiAUC0-2 h for standardized meals was 3.7% (IQR: 1.7%-7.1%) for intrabrand device and 12.5% (IQR: 5.1%-24.8%) for interbrand device comparisons. Similar estimates were observed for ad libitum meals, with intrabrand and interbrand device CVs of glucoseiAUC0-2 h of 4.1% (IQR: 1.8%-7.1%) and 16.6% (IQR: 5.5%-30.7%), respectively. Kendall τ rank correlation showed glucoseiAUC0-2h-derived meal rankings were agreeable between paired CGM devices (intrabrand: 0.9; IQR: 0.8-0.9; interbrand: 0.7; IQR: 0.5-0.8). Paired CGMs also showed strong concordance for TIRADA with a intrabrand device CV of 4.8% (IQR: 1.9%-9.8%) and an interbrand device CV of 3.2% (IQR: 1.1%-6.2%). Conclusions: Our data demonstrate strong concordance of CGM devices in monitoring glycemic responses and suggest their potential use in personalized nutrition.
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| 4. |
- Sudre, Carole H., et al.
(författare)
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Attributes and predictors of long COVID
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Nature. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 27:4, s. 626-631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reports of long-lasting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, the so-called ‘long COVID’, are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We ana- lyzed data from 4,182 incident cases of COVID-19 in which individuals self-reported their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app1. A total of 558 (13.3%) partici- pants reported symptoms lasting ≥28 days, 189 (4.5%) for ≥8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for ≥12 weeks. Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID (odds ratio = 3.53 (2.76–4.50)). A simple model to distinguish between short COVID and long COVID at 7 days (total sample size, n = 2,149) showed an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 76%, with replication in an independent sample of 2,472 individuals who were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavi- rus 2. This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services.
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| 5. |
- Varsavsky, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Detecting COVID-19 infection hotspots in England using large-scale self-reported data from a mobile application : a prospective, observational study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Public Health. - : Elsevier. - 2468-2667. ; 6:1, s. 21-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: As many countries seek to slow the spread of COVID-19 without reimposing national restrictions, it has become important to track the disease at a local level to identify areas in need of targeted intervention. Methods: In this prospective, observational study, we did modelling using longitudinal, self-reported data from users of the COVID Symptom Study app in England between March 24, and Sept 29, 2020. Beginning on April 28, in England, the Department of Health and Social Care allocated RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 to app users who logged themselves as healthy at least once in 9 days and then reported any symptom. We calculated incidence of COVID-19 using the invited swab (RT-PCR) tests reported in the app, and we estimated prevalence using a symptom-based method (using logistic regression) and a method based on both symptoms and swab test results. We used incidence rates to estimate the effective reproduction number, R(t), modelling the system as a Poisson process and using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo. We used three datasets to validate our models: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Community Infection Survey, the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) study, and UK Government testing data. We used geographically granular estimates to highlight regions with rapidly increasing case numbers, or hotspots. Findings: From March 24 to Sept 29, 2020, a total of 2 873 726 users living in England signed up to use the app, of whom 2 842 732 (98·9%) provided valid age information and daily assessments. These users provided a total of 120 192 306 daily reports of their symptoms, and recorded the results of 169 682 invited swab tests. On a national level, our estimates of incidence and prevalence showed a similar sensitivity to changes to those reported in the ONS and REACT-1 studies. On Sept 28, 2020, we estimated an incidence of 15 841 (95% CI 14 023–17 885) daily cases, a prevalence of 0·53% (0·45–0·60), and R(t) of 1·17 (1·15–1·19) in England. On a geographically granular level, on Sept 28, 2020, we detected 15 (75%) of the 20 regions with highest incidence according to government test data. Interpretation: Our method could help to detect rapid case increases in regions where government testing provision is lower. Self-reported data from mobile applications can provide an agile resource to inform policy makers during a quickly moving pandemic, serving as a complementary resource to more traditional instruments for disease surveillance. Funding: Zoe Global, UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation, Alzheimer's Society, Chronic Disease Research Foundation.
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