| 1. |
- Elmhagen, Bodil, et al.
(författare)
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Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.
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| 2. |
- Lagerholm, Vendela K., et al.
(författare)
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Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 23:4, s. 1425-1435
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.
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| 3. |
- Lagerholm, Vendela K., et al.
(författare)
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Run to the hills : gene flow among mountain areas leads to low genetic differentiation in the Norwegian lemming
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0024-4066 .- 1095-8312. ; 121:1, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The endemic Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus) is an icon for cyclic species, famous since the Middle Ages for its enormous population outbreaks and mass movements. Although the drivers behind this cyclicity have been intensively investigated, virtually nothing is known about the extent to which long-distance dispersal during population peaks actually lead to gene flow among mountain tundra areas. In this article, we use nine microsatellite markers to address this question and analyse range-wide genetic diversity and differentiation between Fennoscandian sub-regions. The results revealed a high genetic variation with a surprisingly weak population structure, comparable to that of much larger mammals. The differentiation was mainly characterized as a genetic cline across the species' entire distribution, and results from spatial autocorrelation analyses suggested that gene flow occurs with sufficiently high frequency to create a genetic patch size of 100 km. Further, we found that for the equivalent distances, the southern sub-regions were genetically more similar to each other than those in the north, which indicates that the prolonged periods of interrupted lemming cyclicity recorded in the northern parts of Fennoscandia have led to increased isolation and population differentiation. In summary, we propose that mass movements during peak years act as pulses of gene flow between mountain tundra areas, and that these help to maintain genetic variation and counteract differentiation over vast geographic distances.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Smith, Steve, et al.
(författare)
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Nonreceding hare lines : genetic continuity since the Late Pleistocene in European mountain hares (Lepus timidus)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0024-4066 .- 1095-8312. ; 120:4, s. 891-908
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Throughout time, climate changes have caused substantial rearrangements of habitats which have alternately promoted and disfavoured different types of taxa. At first glance, the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) shows the typical hallmarks of a cold-adapted species that has retreated to refugia since the onset of the current Holocene interglacial. In contrary to expectations, however, the species has a high contemporary genetic diversity with no clear differentiation between geographically isolated populations. In order to clarify the phylogeographic history of European mountain hares, we here analysed ancient DNA from the glacial populations that inhabited the previous midlatitude European tundra region. Our results reveal that the Ice Age hares had similar levels of genetic variation and lack of geographic structure as observed today, and the ancient samples were intermingled with modern individuals throughout the reconstructed evolutionary tree. This suggests a temporal genetic continuity in Europe, where the mountain hares were able to keep pace with the rapid changes at the last glacial/ interglacial transition and successfully track their shifting habitat to northern and alpine regions. Further, the temporal demographic analyses showed that the species' population size in Europe appears to have been tightly linked with palaeoclimatic fluctuations, with increases and declines occurring during periods of global cooling and warming, respectively. Taken together, our results suggest that neither habitat shifts nor demographic fluctuations have had any substantial impact on the genetic diversity of European mountain hares. This remarkable resilience, which contrasts to a majority of previously investigated cold-adapted species, is likely due to its generalist nature that makes it less vulnerable to environmental changes.
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