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- Moseby-Knappe, Marion, et al.
(author)
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Serum markers of brain injury can predict good neurological outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
- 2021
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In: Intensive Care Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0342-4642 .- 1432-1238. ; 47
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose The majority of unconscious patients after cardiac arrest (CA) do not fulfill guideline criteria for a likely poor outcome, their prognosis is considered "indeterminate". We compared brain injury markers in blood for prediction of good outcome and for identifying false positive predictions of poor outcome as recommended by guidelines. Methods Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected serum samples at 24, 48 and 72 h post arrest within the Target Temperature Management after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (TTM)-trial. Clinically available markers neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S100B, and novel markers neurofilament light chain (NFL), total tau, ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were analysed. Normal levels with a priori cutoffs specified by reference laboratories or defined from literature were used to predict good outcome (no to moderate disability, Cerebral Performance Category scale 1-2) at 6 months. Results Seven hundred and seventeen patients were included. Normal NFL, tau and GFAP had the highest sensitivities (97.2-98% of poor outcome patients had abnormal serum levels) and NPV (normal levels predicted good outcome in 87-95% of patients). Normal S100B and NSE predicted good outcome with NPV 76-82.2%. Normal NSE correctly identified 67/190 (35.3%) patients with good outcome among those classified as "indeterminate outcome" by guidelines. Five patients with single pathological prognostic findings despite normal biomarkers had good outcome. Conclusion Low levels of brain injury markers in blood are associated with good neurological outcome after CA. Incorporating biomarkers into neuroprognostication may help prevent premature withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Peder, et al.
(author)
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Predicting neurological outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with cumulative information; development and internal validation of an artificial neural network algorithm
- 2021
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In: Critical Care. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1364-8535. ; 25:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundPrognostication of neurological outcome in patients who remain comatose after cardiac arrest resuscitation is complex. Clinical variables, as well as biomarkers of brain injury, cardiac injury, and systemic inflammation, all yield some prognostic value. We hypothesised that cumulative information obtained during the first three days of intensive care could produce a reliable model for predicting neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) using artificial neural network (ANN) with and without biomarkers.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis of 932 patients from the Target Temperature Management trial. We focused on comatose patients at 24, 48, and 72 h post-cardiac arrest and excluded patients who were awake or deceased at these time points. 80% of the patients were allocated for model development (training set) and 20% for internal validation (test set). To investigate the prognostic potential of different levels of biomarkers (clinically available and research-grade), patients' background information, and intensive care observation and treatment, we created three models for each time point: (1) clinical variables, (2) adding clinically accessible biomarkers, e.g., neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and (3) adding research-grade biomarkers, e.g., neurofilament light (NFL). Patient outcome was the dichotomised Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) at six months; a good outcome was defined as CPC 1-2 whilst a poor outcome was defined as CPC 3-5. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for all test sets.ResultsAUROC remained below 90% when using only clinical variables throughout the first three days in the ICU. Adding clinically accessible biomarkers such as NSE, AUROC increased from 82 to 94% (p<0.01). The prognostic accuracy remained excellent from day 1 to day 3 with an AUROC at approximately 95% when adding research-grade biomarkers. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on any of the three days had a low risk of false-positive predictions while retaining a low number of false-negative predictions.ConclusionsIn this exploratory study, ANNs provided good to excellent prognostic accuracy in predicting neurological outcome in comatose patients post OHCA. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on all days showed promising prognostic performance.
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