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- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Deuba, K, et al.
(författare)
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Effectiveness of interventions for changing HIV related risk behaviours among key populations in low-income setting: A Meta-Analysis, 2001-2016
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1, s. 2197-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this review was to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the effectiveness of behavioural interventions to reduce HIV-related risk behaviours among key populations: people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender in Nepal over the last two decades. Using four electronic databases, we performed a systematic search of the literature on HIV interventions implemented in Nepal and published from January 2001 to December 2016. In addition, grey literature was also scrutinised for potential articles. The search focussed specifically on behavioural interventions (peer education and HIV testing services) targeted for key populations. Random-effects models were used to calculate the pooled odds ratio for dichotomous outcomes (condom use in last sex or unsafe injection practices), pooled HIV prevalence and subgroup analyses by age groups and epidemic zones in Nepal. Forty-three studies with 15,642 participants were included (people who inject drugs: 7105; men who have sex with men and transgender: 2637; female sex workers: 5900). Pooled prevalence showed a higher occurrence of HIV among people who inject drugs (12%) followed by men who have sex with men/transgender (5%) and female sex workers (2%) respectively. There was a significant increase in the odds of condom use among female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender who received peer education interventions in both informal and formal setting compared to those who did not. Similarly, the odds of condom use among female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender improved significantly among those who received HIV counselling and testing services as compared to those who did not use such services. Subgroup analyses also verified the effectiveness of these interventions for both young and adult key populations and across all three epidemic zones. However, none of the included interventions were found to be effective for reducing unsafe injection practices among people who inject drugs. HIV prevention interventions in Nepal have effectively reduced risky behaviours among female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender over the last two decades but not among people who inject drugs. This calls for continued implementation of existing efforts as well as for new interventions adapted to the needs of people who inject drugs.
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