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1.
  • Sletvold, Nina, et al. (författare)
  • Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species : results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:9, s. 2729-2738
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.
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2.
  • Dahlgren, Johan P., et al. (författare)
  • The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Ecology. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 97:4, s. 899-907
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes.
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3.
  • Ehrlen, Johan, et al. (författare)
  • Advancing environmentally explicit structured population models of plants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 104:2, s. 292-305
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The relationship between the performance of individuals and the surrounding environment is fundamental in ecology and evolutionary biology. Assessing how abiotic and biotic environmental factors influence demographic processes is necessary to understand and predict population dynamics, as well as species distributions and abundances. We searched the literature for studies that have linked abiotic and biotic environmental factors to vital rates and, using structured demographic models, population growth rates of plants. We found 136 studies that had examined the environmental drivers of plant demography. The number of studies has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the reviewed studies, we identify and discuss several major gaps in our knowledge of environmentally driven demography of plants. We argue that some drivers may have been underexplored and that the full potential of spatially and temporally replicated studies may not have been realized. We also stress the need to employ relevant statistical methods and experiments to correctly identify drivers. Moreover, assessments of the relationship between drivers and vital rates need to consider interactive, nonlinear and indirect effects, as well as effects of intraspecific density dependence.Synthesis. Much progress has already been made by using structured population models to link the performance of individuals to the surrounding environment. However, by improving the design and analyses of future studies, we can substantially increase our ability to predict changes in plant population dynamics, abundances and distributions in response to changes in specific environmental drivers. Future environmentally explicit demographic models should also address how genetic changes prompted by selection imposed by environmental changes will alter population trajectories in the face of continued environmental change and investigate the reciprocal feedback between plants and their biotic drivers.
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4.
  • Bolinder, Kristina, et al. (författare)
  • From near extinction to diversification by means of ashift in pollination mechanism in the gymnosperm relict Ephedra (Ephedraceae, Gnetales)
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Botanical journal of the Linnean Society. - 0024-4074 .- 1095-8339. ; 180:4, s. 461-477
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Pollination in gymnosperms is usually accomplished by means of wind, but some groups are insect-pollinated. We show that wind and insect pollination occur in the morphologically uniform genus Ephedra (Gnetales). Based on field experiments over several years, we demonstrate distinct differences between two Ephedra species that grow in sympatry in Greece in pollen dispersal and clump formation, insect visitations and embryo formation when insects are denied access to cones. Ephedra distachya, nested in the core clade of Ephedra, is anemophilous, which is probably the prevailing state in Ephedra. Ephedra foeminea, sister to the remaining species of the genus, is entomophilous and pollinated by a range of diurnal and nocturnal insects. The generalist entomophilous system of E.foeminea, with distinct but infrequent insect visitations, is in many respects similar to that reported for Gnetum and Welwitschia and appears ancestral in Gnetales. The Ephedra lineage is well documented already from the Early Cretaceous, but the diversity declined dramatically during the Late Cretaceous, possibly to near extinction around the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. The clade imbalance between insect- and wind-pollinated lineages is larger than expected by chance and the shift in pollination mode may explain why Ephedra escaped extinction and began to diversify again.
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5.
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6.
  • Ehrlen, Johan, et al. (författare)
  • Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 18:3, s. 303-314
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.
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7.
  • Elmhagen, Bodil, et al. (författare)
  • Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ecology & society. - 1708-3087 .- 1708-3087. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.
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8.
  • Fogelstrom, Elsa, et al. (författare)
  • Simultaneous selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology in a perennial herb
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758 .- 2045-7758. ; 12:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The timing of different life-history events is often correlated, and selection might only rarely be exerted independently on the timing of a single event. In plants, phenotypic selection has often been shown to favor earlier flowering. However, little is known about to what extent this selection acts directly versus indirectly via vegetative phenology, and if selection on the two traits is correlational. We estimated direct, indirect, and correlational phenotypic selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology over 3 years for flowering individuals of the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. Direct selection favored earlier flowering and shorter timespans between leaf-out and flowering in all years. However, early flowering was associated with early leaf-out, and the direction of selection on leaf-out day varied among years. As a result, selection on leaf-out weakened selection for early flowering in one of the study years. We found no evidence of correlational selection. Our results highlight the importance of including temporally correlated traits when exploring selection on the phenology of seasonal events.
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9.
  • Lehtilä, Kari, et al. (författare)
  • Forest succession and population viability of grassland plants : long repayment of extinction debt in Primula veris
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Oecologia. - 0029-8549 .- 1432-1939. ; 181:1, s. 125-135
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Time lags in responses of organisms to deteriorating environmental conditions delay population declines and extinctions. We examined how local processes at the population level contribute to extinction debt, and how cycles of habitat deterioration and recovery may delay extinction. We carried out a demographic analysis of the fate of the grassland perennial Primula veris after the cessation of grassland management, where we used either a unidirectional succession model for forest habitat or a rotation model with a period of forest growth followed by a clear-cut and a new successional cycle. The simulations indicated that P. veris populations may have an extinction time of decades to centuries after a detrimental management change. A survey of the current incidence and abundance of P. veris in sites with different histories of afforestation confirmed the simulation results of low extinction rates. P. veris had reduced incidence and abundance only at sites with at least 100 years of forest cover. Time to extinction in simulations was dependent on the duration of the periods with favourable and unfavourable conditions after management cessation, and the population sizes and growth rates in these periods. Our results thus suggest that the ability of a species to survive is a complex function of disturbance regimes, rates of successional change, and the demographic response to environmental changes. Detailed demographic studies over entire successional cycles are therefore essential to identify the environmental conditions that enable long-term persistence and to design management for species experiencing extinction debts.
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10.
  • Thomann, Michel, et al. (författare)
  • Grazers affect selection on inflorescence height both directly and indirectly and effects change over time
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 99:10, s. 2167-2175
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Selection mediated by one biotic agent will often be modified by the presence of other biotic interactions, and the importance of such indirect effects might change over time. We conducted an 11-yr field experiment to test the prediction that large grazers affect selection on floral display of the dimorphic herb Primula farinosa not only directly through differential grazing damage, but also indirectly by affecting vegetation height and thereby selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. Exclusion of large grazers increased vegetation height and the strength of pollinator-mediated selection for tall inflorescences and seed-predator-mediated selection for short inflorescences. The direct effect of grazers on selection resulting from differential grazing damage to the two scape morphs showed no temporal trend. By contrast, the increase in vegetation height in exclosures over time was associated with an increase in selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. In the early years of the experiment, the indirect effects of grazers on selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators were weak, whereas at the end of the experiment, the indirect effects were of similar magnitude as the direct effect due to differential grazing damage. The results demonstrate that the indirect effects of a selective agent can be as strong as its direct effects, and that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect effects on selection can change over time. A full understanding of the ecological processes governing variation in selection thus requires that both direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions are assessed.
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