| 1. |
- Dahlgren, Johan P., et al.
(författare)
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The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 97:4, s. 899-907
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes.
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| 2. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Advancing environmentally explicit structured population models of plants
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 104:2, s. 292-305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between the performance of individuals and the surrounding environment is fundamental in ecology and evolutionary biology. Assessing how abiotic and biotic environmental factors influence demographic processes is necessary to understand and predict population dynamics, as well as species distributions and abundances. We searched the literature for studies that have linked abiotic and biotic environmental factors to vital rates and, using structured demographic models, population growth rates of plants. We found 136 studies that had examined the environmental drivers of plant demography. The number of studies has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the reviewed studies, we identify and discuss several major gaps in our knowledge of environmentally driven demography of plants. We argue that some drivers may have been underexplored and that the full potential of spatially and temporally replicated studies may not have been realized. We also stress the need to employ relevant statistical methods and experiments to correctly identify drivers. Moreover, assessments of the relationship between drivers and vital rates need to consider interactive, nonlinear and indirect effects, as well as effects of intraspecific density dependence.Synthesis. Much progress has already been made by using structured population models to link the performance of individuals to the surrounding environment. However, by improving the design and analyses of future studies, we can substantially increase our ability to predict changes in plant population dynamics, abundances and distributions in response to changes in specific environmental drivers. Future environmentally explicit demographic models should also address how genetic changes prompted by selection imposed by environmental changes will alter population trajectories in the face of continued environmental change and investigate the reciprocal feedback between plants and their biotic drivers.
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| 3. |
- Fogelström, Elsa, et al.
(författare)
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Spring and autumn phenology in an understory herb are uncorrelated and driven by different factors
- 2022
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Ingår i: American Journal of Botany. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0002-9122 .- 1537-2197. ; 109:2, s. 226-236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Premise Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life-history events, temperature, and plant-resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals.Methods We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf-out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long-lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology.Results The timing of leaf-out and senescence were consistent within individuals among years. Leaf-out and senescence were not correlated with each other within years. Larger plants leafed out and senesced later, and size had no effect on growing season length. Reproductive plants leafed out earlier and had longer growing seasons than nonreproductive plants. Grazing had no detectable effects on phenology. Colder spring temperatures delayed senescence in two of three study years.Conclusions The timing of seasonal events, such as leaf-out and senescence in plants can be expressed largely independently within and among seasons and are influenced by different factors. Growing season start and length can often be dependent on plant condition and reproductive status. Knowledge about the drivers of growing season length of individuals is essential to more accurately predict species and community responses to environmental variation.
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| 4. |
- Sletvold, Nina, et al.
(författare)
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Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species : results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:9, s. 2729-2738
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.
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| 5. |
- Bolinder, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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From near extinction to diversification by means of ashift in pollination mechanism in the gymnosperm relict Ephedra (Ephedraceae, Gnetales)
- 2016
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Ingår i: Botanical journal of the Linnean Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0024-4074 .- 1095-8339. ; 180:4, s. 461-477
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pollination in gymnosperms is usually accomplished by means of wind, but some groups are insect-pollinated. We show that wind and insect pollination occur in the morphologically uniform genus Ephedra (Gnetales). Based on field experiments over several years, we demonstrate distinct differences between two Ephedra species that grow in sympatry in Greece in pollen dispersal and clump formation, insect visitations and embryo formation when insects are denied access to cones. Ephedra distachya, nested in the core clade of Ephedra, is anemophilous, which is probably the prevailing state in Ephedra. Ephedra foeminea, sister to the remaining species of the genus, is entomophilous and pollinated by a range of diurnal and nocturnal insects. The generalist entomophilous system of E.foeminea, with distinct but infrequent insect visitations, is in many respects similar to that reported for Gnetum and Welwitschia and appears ancestral in Gnetales. The Ephedra lineage is well documented already from the Early Cretaceous, but the diversity declined dramatically during the Late Cretaceous, possibly to near extinction around the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. The clade imbalance between insect- and wind-pollinated lineages is larger than expected by chance and the shift in pollination mode may explain why Ephedra escaped extinction and began to diversify again.
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| 6. |
- de Kroon, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Elasticities : a review of methods and model limitations
- 2000
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Ingår i: Ecology. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 81:3, s. 607-618
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elasticity is a perturbation measure in matrix projection models that quantifiesthe proportional change in population growth rate as a function of a proportionalchange in a demographic transition (growth, survival, reproduction, etc.). Elasticities thusindicate the relative "importance" of life cycle transitions for population growth and maintenance.In this paper, we discuss the applications of elasticity analysis, and its extension,loop analysis, in life history studies and conservation. Elasticity can be interpreted as therelative contribution of a demographic parameter to population growth rate. Loop analysisreveals the underlying pathway structure of the life cycle graph. The different kinds ofresults of the two analyses in studies of life histories are emphasized. Because elasticitiesquantify the relative importance of life cycle transitions to population growth rate, it isgenerally inferred that management should focus on the transitions with the largest elasticities.Such predictions based on elasticities seem robust, but we do identify three situationswhere problems may arise. The mathematical properties and biological constraints thatunderlie these pitfalls are explained. Examples illustrate the additional information thatneeds to be taken into account for a sensible use of elasticities in population management.We conclude by indicating topics that are in need of research.
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| 7. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Dispersal limitation and patch occupancy in forest herbs
- 2000
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Ingår i: Ecology. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 81, s. 1667-1674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The distribution of species depends on the availability of suitable habitats, the capacity to disperse to these habitats, and the capacity of populations to persist after establishment. Dispersal limitation implies that not all suitable habitat patches will be occupied by a species. However, the extent to which dispersal limits local distribution is poorly known. In this study, we transplanted seeds, bulbils, and juvenile plants to examine patterns of dispersal limitation and patch occupancy in seven temperate-forest herbs. Recruitment was recorded during four years in 48 patches. The investigated species varied considerably in their natural abundance in the patches. Patterns of seedling emergence and establishment among patches were not related to any of nine investigated abiotic factors. In contrast, the availability of seeds or bulbils was found to limit recruitment in six of the investigated species. Establishment was also successful in many patches where the species did not occur naturally. Estimated patch occupancy in the investigated species ranged from 17.2% to 94.6%. Seed size was positively correlated with the probability of successful establishment of seeds and negatively correlated with patch occupancy. The results suggest that dispersal limitation is an important structuring factor in temperate-forest herb communities. The distribution of species can be perceived as the result of processes operating both among and within patches. Seed size is a key trait in these processes.
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| 8. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen limitation, seed predation and scape length in Primula farinosa
- 2002
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Ingår i: Oikos. - : Wiley. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 97:1, s. 45-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floral display and reward production may affect the attractiveness of a plant to a range of interacting animals including pollinators, herbivores, and vectors of pathogenic fungi. The optimal floral phenotype should therefore depend on the relative importance of selection exerted by both mutualistic and antagonistic animals. The perennial, rosette herb Primula farinosa is polymorphic for scape length. Natural populations may include both plants with flowers displayed well above the ground (the long-scaped morph) and those with flowers positioned very close to the ground (the short-scaped morph). In this study, we conducted a field experiment to examine how the relative fitness of the two scape morphs is affected by interactions with pollinators and fruit predators in two different microhabitats (high and low vegetation). As predicted based on the difference in floral display, supplemental hand-pollination showed that fruit initiation was more strongly pollen-limited in the short-scaped than in the long-scaped morph, and that this difference was significantly larger in high than in low vegetation. Moreover, plants with a short scape experienced lower levels of fruit predation than plants with a long scape. Among open-pollinated controls, there was no significant difference in seed output between the two scape morphs. However, among plants receiving supplemental hand-pollination, short-scaped plants produced significantly more seeds than long-scaped plants. The results suggest that the positive and negative effects of a prominent floral display (increased pollination and seed predation, respectively) balance in the study population, but also that the short-scaped morph would have an advantage at higher pollination intensities. Spatial and temporal variation in pollinator activity and seed predation should result in associated variation in the relative fecundity of the two scape morphs.
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| 9. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 18:3, s. 303-314
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.
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| 10. |
- Ehrlén, Johan
(författare)
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The dynamics of plant populations : does the history of individuals matter?
- 2000
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Ingår i: Ecology. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 81:6, s. 1675-1684
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Historical events have been used to explain a wide range of phenomenaincluding geographical distributions of species, community diversity, and population structure.At the level of individuals, historical effects in which past conditions influence futureperformance are particularly likely to occur in long-lived organisms that store resourcesbetween seasons and that form organs months or years before their elaboration. Such carryovermechanisms have been documented in several perennial plant species, but the implicationsfor population processes are poorly known. In this study, I examine how the historyof individuals influences their future performance, population dynamics, and life cycle,structure in the long-lived herb Lathyrus vernus. Overall effects of plant history on populationdynamics, in terms of growth rate, reproductive values, stable stage distribution,and elasticities, are examined by comparing an ordinary first-order matrix model with asecond-order matrix model. In the latter, not only the present state of individuals, but alsotheir past state is allowed to influence future fate.The results demonstrate that the history of individuals is sometimes important in modelsof population dynamics. Plant size change over a one-year period was negatively correlatedamong time intervals. Addition of the previous year's stage in population models shiftedthe growth rate from positive (X = 1.010) to negative (X = 0.986) and increased theproportion of small established individuals in the stable stage distribution. If historicaleffects are due to a capacity to buffer environmental variation and regain size or state, asin L. vernus, then recruitment contributes less and stasis more to population growth thansuggested by ahistorical models. The presence of historical effects at the level of individuals,in any form, may have important consequences for population development and should beincluded in any interpretation of the life-cycle structure.
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