| 1. |
- Buckley, Yvonne M., et al.
(author)
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Causes and consequences of variation in plant population growth rate : a synthesis of matrix population models in a phylogenetic context
- 2010
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 13:9, s. 1182-1197
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Explaining variation in population growth rates is fundamental to predicting population dynamics and population responses to environmental change. In this study, we used matrix population models, which link birth, growth and survival to population growth rate, to examine how and why population growth rates vary within and among 50 terrestrial plant species. Population growth rates were more similar within species than among species; with phylogeny having a minimal influence on among-species variation. Most population growth rates decreased over the observation period and were negatively autocorrelated between years; that is, higher than average population growth rates tended to be followed by lower than average population growth rates. Population growth rates varied more through time than space; this temporal variation was due mostly to variation in post-seedling survival and for a subset of species was partly explained by response to environmental factors, such as fire and herbivory. Stochastic population growth rates departed from mean matrix population growth rate for temporally autocorrelated environments. Our findings indicate that demographic data and models of closely related plant species cannot necessarily be used to make recommendations for conservation or control, and that post-seedling survival and the sequence of environmental conditions are critical for determining plant population growth rate.
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| 2. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change
- 2015
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 18:3, s. 303-314
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.
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