| 1. |
- Dahlgren, Johan P., et al.
(författare)
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The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 97:4, s. 899-907
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes.
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| 2. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Advancing environmentally explicit structured population models of plants
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 104:2, s. 292-305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationship between the performance of individuals and the surrounding environment is fundamental in ecology and evolutionary biology. Assessing how abiotic and biotic environmental factors influence demographic processes is necessary to understand and predict population dynamics, as well as species distributions and abundances. We searched the literature for studies that have linked abiotic and biotic environmental factors to vital rates and, using structured demographic models, population growth rates of plants. We found 136 studies that had examined the environmental drivers of plant demography. The number of studies has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the reviewed studies, we identify and discuss several major gaps in our knowledge of environmentally driven demography of plants. We argue that some drivers may have been underexplored and that the full potential of spatially and temporally replicated studies may not have been realized. We also stress the need to employ relevant statistical methods and experiments to correctly identify drivers. Moreover, assessments of the relationship between drivers and vital rates need to consider interactive, nonlinear and indirect effects, as well as effects of intraspecific density dependence.Synthesis. Much progress has already been made by using structured population models to link the performance of individuals to the surrounding environment. However, by improving the design and analyses of future studies, we can substantially increase our ability to predict changes in plant population dynamics, abundances and distributions in response to changes in specific environmental drivers. Future environmentally explicit demographic models should also address how genetic changes prompted by selection imposed by environmental changes will alter population trajectories in the face of continued environmental change and investigate the reciprocal feedback between plants and their biotic drivers.
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| 3. |
- Bolinder, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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From near extinction to diversification by means of ashift in pollination mechanism in the gymnosperm relict Ephedra (Ephedraceae, Gnetales)
- 2016
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Ingår i: Botanical journal of the Linnean Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0024-4074 .- 1095-8339. ; 180:4, s. 461-477
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pollination in gymnosperms is usually accomplished by means of wind, but some groups are insect-pollinated. We show that wind and insect pollination occur in the morphologically uniform genus Ephedra (Gnetales). Based on field experiments over several years, we demonstrate distinct differences between two Ephedra species that grow in sympatry in Greece in pollen dispersal and clump formation, insect visitations and embryo formation when insects are denied access to cones. Ephedra distachya, nested in the core clade of Ephedra, is anemophilous, which is probably the prevailing state in Ephedra. Ephedra foeminea, sister to the remaining species of the genus, is entomophilous and pollinated by a range of diurnal and nocturnal insects. The generalist entomophilous system of E.foeminea, with distinct but infrequent insect visitations, is in many respects similar to that reported for Gnetum and Welwitschia and appears ancestral in Gnetales. The Ephedra lineage is well documented already from the Early Cretaceous, but the diversity declined dramatically during the Late Cretaceous, possibly to near extinction around the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. The clade imbalance between insect- and wind-pollinated lineages is larger than expected by chance and the shift in pollination mode may explain why Ephedra escaped extinction and began to diversify again.
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| 4. |
- Ehrlén, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 18:3, s. 303-314
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.
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| 5. |
- Thomann, Michel, et al.
(författare)
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Grazers affect selection on inflorescence height both directly and indirectly and effects change over time
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 99:10, s. 2167-2175
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Selection mediated by one biotic agent will often be modified by the presence of other biotic interactions, and the importance of such indirect effects might change over time. We conducted an 11-yr field experiment to test the prediction that large grazers affect selection on floral display of the dimorphic herb Primula farinosa not only directly through differential grazing damage, but also indirectly by affecting vegetation height and thereby selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. Exclusion of large grazers increased vegetation height and the strength of pollinator-mediated selection for tall inflorescences and seed-predator-mediated selection for short inflorescences. The direct effect of grazers on selection resulting from differential grazing damage to the two scape morphs showed no temporal trend. By contrast, the increase in vegetation height in exclosures over time was associated with an increase in selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. In the early years of the experiment, the indirect effects of grazers on selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators were weak, whereas at the end of the experiment, the indirect effects were of similar magnitude as the direct effect due to differential grazing damage. The results demonstrate that the indirect effects of a selective agent can be as strong as its direct effects, and that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect effects on selection can change over time. A full understanding of the ecological processes governing variation in selection thus requires that both direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions are assessed.
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