| 1. |
- Herben, T, et al.
(author)
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Longterm spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape : linking dynamical modelling with historical maps
- 2006
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In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 94:1, s. 131-143
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We attempt to explain the current distribution of a long-lived perennial plant, Succisa pratensis, in a rural landscape in southern Sweden by linking its population biology with documented changes in the landscape, using a dynamical, spatially explicit model incorporating population dynamics and spatial spreading of the plant. Changes in the landscape were inferred from historical maps (1850 and 1900) and aerial photographs (1945 and 2001). We tested whether predictions for the current species distribution are affected by assumptions about its early 19th century distribution, to determine whether recent history and current processes are dominant, and how past landscape changes determine current distributions. Initial conditions influence predictions of current distribution, suggesting that the current distribution still partly reflects the distribution of the species in the early 19th century. A period of 150 years is too short for Succisa to have spread extensively if dispersal parameters are given realistic values. Simulations in which present-day land-use patterns were imposed at earlier dates showed that changes in landscape structure over the past 175 years also had a strong effect on the present-day habitat occupancy and population sizes of Succisa. The dominant process for Succisanow is extinction from marginal habitats. It is therefore likely that the (relatively) high present-day occupation patterns are still due to much larger areas having been available in the past rather than to successful dispersal. Although the species has responded to landscape changes, there is little evidence of population sizes reaching equilibrium. Our approach shows that the wealth of landscape information available from historical maps can be linked with data on population biology by means of dynamical models that can make predictions about species dynamics.
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| 2. |
- Mildén, Mikael, et al.
(author)
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Metapopulation dynamics of a perennial plant, Succisa pratensis, in an agricultural landscape
- 2006
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In: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 199:4, s. 464-475
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most metapopulation models neglect the local dynamics, and systems characterized by slow population turnover, time lags and non-equilibrium, are only rarely examined within a metapopulation context. In this study we used a realistic, spatially explicit, dynamic metapopulation model of a long-lived grassland plant, Succisa pratensis, to examine the relative importance of local population dynamics, and short and long-distance dispersal of seeds. Using both vegetation composition and sowing experiments we identified 94 occupied and 43 unoccupied, but suitable, habitat patches in a 7-km2 landscape. Local population dynamics were studied in permanent plots in five populations. Simulation results showed that the colonization and extinction dynamics of S. pratensis were slow with about one colonization or extinction per year and the time frame for the population system to attain equilibrium in a constant landscape was several thousands of years. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that occasional long-distance dispersal had a large influence on population turnover rates whereas regular short-distance dispersal had little effect. Our model also allowed us to assess how demographic processes affect not only local population growth but also regional dynamics. Fecundity was more important, compared with growth and survival, in a metapopulation context than when considered only within populations. The effect of landscape development was examined through different land-use scenarios and suggested that S. pratensis only very slowly colonizes new habitats that are made available. Our results with S. pratensis in an agricultural landscape show that long-distance dispersal and colonization dynamics play an important role for the regional distribution in long-lived plants but that time lags, and thus the effect of landscape history, are also very important.
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