| 1. |
- Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Sundin, Per-Ola, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Hospital admission with pneumonia and subsequent persistent risk of chronic kidney disease : national cohort study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Clinical Epidemiology. - : DOVE Medical Press Ltd.. - 1179-1349. ; 10, s. 971-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Although acute onset kidney complications associated with severe infections including pneumonia are well characterized, little is known about possible subsequent delayed risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD).Patients and methods: Associations between hospital admission with pneumonia in adulthood and raised risks of subsequent CKD were evaluated in a cohort of all male residents in Sweden born from 1952 to 1956 (n=284,198) who attended mandatory military conscription examinations in late adolescence (n=264,951) and were followed up through 2009. CKD and pneumonia were identified using Swedish national registers, and their associations were evaluated using Cox regression. Excluding the first year, the subsequent period was divided into <= 5, > 5-<= 15, and > 15 years after hospital admission with pneumonia. Follow-up ended on the date of first incident diagnosis of kidney disease, death, emigration, or December 31, 2009, whichever occurred first.Results: During a median follow-up of 36.7 (interquartile range 35.3-37.9) years from late adolescence, 5,822 men had an inpatient pneumonia diagnosis without contemporaneous kidney disease. Among exposed men, 136 (2.3%) were later diagnosed with CKD compared with 2,749 (1.2%) of the unexposed. The adjusted hazard ratio for CKD in the first year after the first episode of pneumonia was 14.55 (95% confidence interval, 10.41-20.32), identifying early onset kidney complications and possibly pre-existing undiagnosed CKD. Starting follow-up 1 year after pneumonia to reduce the potential influence of surveillance bias and the risk of reverse causation, the adjusted hazard ratio for CKD in the first 5 years of follow-up was 5.20 (95% confidence interval, 3.91-6.93) and then attenuated with increasing time.Conclusion: Pneumonia among inpatients is associated with a persistently increased risk for subsequent CKD, with the highest risk during the years immediately after pneumonia. Health care professionals should be aware of this period of heightened risk to facilitate early diagnosis and secondary preventive interventions.
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| 4. |
- Bergh, Cecilia, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Determinants in adolescence of stroke-related hospital stay duration in men : a national cohort study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Stroke. - Philadelphia, USA : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0039-2499 .- 1524-4628. ; 47:9, s. 2416-2418
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and purpose: Physical and psychological characteristics in adolescence are associated with subsequent stroke risk. Our aim is to investigate their relevance to length of hospital stay and risk of second stroke.Methods: Swedish men born between 1952 and 1956 (n=237 879) were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from population-based national registers. Stress resilience, body mass index, cognitive function, physical fitness, and blood pressure were measured at compulsory military conscription examinations in late adolescence. Joint Cox proportional hazards models estimated the associations of these characteristics with long compared with short duration of stroke-related hospital stay and with second stroke compared with first.Results: Some 3000 men were diagnosed with nonfatal stroke between ages 31 and 58 years. Low stress resilience, underweight, and higher systolic blood pressure (per 1-mm Hg increase) during adolescence were associated with longer hospital stay (compared with shorter) in ischemic stroke, with adjusted relative hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) of 1.46 (1.08-1.89), 1.41 (1.04-1.91), and 1.01 (1.00-1.02), respectively. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures during adolescence were associated with longer hospital stay in men with intracerebral hemorrhage: 1.01 (1.00-1.03) and 1.02 (1.00-1.04), respectively. Among both stroke types, obesity in adolescence conferred an increased risk of second stroke: 2.06 (1.21-3.45).Conclusions: Some characteristics relevant to length of stroke-related hospital stay and risk of second stroke are already present in adolescence. Early lifestyle influences are of importance not only to stroke risk by middle age but also to recurrence and use of healthcare resources among stroke survivors.
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| 5. |
- Bergh, Cecilia, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Severe infections and subsequent delayed cardiovascular disease
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Sage Publications. - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 24:18, s. 1958-1966
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Severe infections in adulthood are associated with subsequent short-term cardiovascular disease. Whether hospital admission for sepsis or pneumonia is associated with persistent increased risk (over a year after infection) is less well established.Design: The design of this study was as a register-based cohort study.Methods: Some 236,739 men born between 1952-1956 were followed from conscription assessments in adolescence to 2010. All-cause cardiovascular disease ( n = 46,754), including coronary heart disease ( n = 10,279) and stroke ( n = 3438), was identified through national registers 1970-2010 (at ages 18-58 years).Results: Sepsis or pneumonia in adulthood (resulting in hospital admission) are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease in the years following infection. The risk is highest during the first year after the infection, with an adjusted hazard ratio (and 95% confidence intervals) of 6.33 (5.65-7.09) and a notably increased risk persisted with hazard ratios of 2.47 (2.04-3.00) for the second and 2.12 (1.71-2.62) for the third year after infection. The risk attenuated with time, but remained raised for at least five years after infection; 1.87 (1.47-2.38). The results are adjusted for characteristics in childhood, cardiovascular risk factors and medical history in adolescence. Similar statistically significant associations were found for coronary heart disease and stroke.Conclusions: Raised risks of cardiovascular disease following hospital admission for sepsis or pneumonia were increased for more than five years after the infection, but with the highest magnitude during the first three years following infection, suggesting a period of vulnerability when health professionals and patients should be aware of the heightened risk for cardiovascular disease.
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| 6. |
- Bergh, Cecilia, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Stress resilience and physical fitness in adolescence and risk of coronary heart disease in middle age
- 2015
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Ingår i: Heart. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 101:8, s. 623-629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Psychosocial stress is a suggested risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). The relationship of stress resilience in adolescence with subsequent CHD risk is underinvestigated, so our objective was to assess this and investigate the possible mediating role of physical fitness.METHODS: In this register-based study, 237 980 men born between 1952 and 1956 were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from Swedish registers. Stress resilience was measured at a compulsory military conscription examination using a semistructured interview with a psychologist. Some 10 581 diagnoses of CHD were identified. Cox regression estimated the association of stress resilience with CHD, with adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors.RESULTS: Low-stress resilience was associated with increased CHD risk. The association remained after adjustment for physical fitness and other potential confounding and mediating factors, with adjusted HRs (and 95% CIs) of 1.17 (1.10 to 1.25), with some evidence of mediation by physical fitness. CHD incidence rates per 1000 person-years (and 95% CIs) for low-stress, medium-stress and high-stress resilience were 2.61 (2.52 to 2.70), 1.97 (1.92 to 2.03) and 1.59 (1.53 to 1.67) respectively. Higher physical fitness was inversely associated with CHD risk; however, this was attenuated by low-stress resilience, shown by interaction testing (p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS: Low-stress resilience in adolescence was associated with increased risk of CHD in middle age and may diminish the benefit of physical fitness. This represents new evidence of the role of stress resilience in determining risk of CHD and its interrelationship with physical fitness.
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| 7. |
- Fall, Tove, et al.
(författare)
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Early Exposure to Dogs and Farm Animals and the Risk of Childhood Asthma
- 2015
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - Stockholm : American Medical Association. - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 169:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The association between early exposure to animals and childhood asthma is not clear, and previous studies have yielded contradictory results.OBJECTIVE: To determine whether exposure to dogs and farm animals confers a risk of asthma.DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In a nationwide cohort study, the association between early exposure to dogs and farm animals and the risk of asthma was evaluated and included all children born in Sweden from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2010 (N = 1 011 051), using registry data on dog and farm registration, asthma medication, diagnosis, and confounders for parents and their children. The association was assessed as the odds ratio (OR) for a current diagnosis of asthma at age 6 years for school-aged children and as the hazard ratio (HR) for incident asthma at ages 1 to 5 years for preschool-aged children. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2007, to September 30, 2012.EXPOSURES: Living with a dog or farm animal.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Childhood asthma diagnosis and medication used.RESULTS: Of the 1 011 051 children born during the study period, 376 638 preschool-aged (53 460 [14.2%] exposed to dogs and 1729 [0.5%] exposed to farm animals) and 276 298 school-aged children (22 629 [8.2%] exposed to dogs and 958 [0.3%] exposed to farm animals) were included in the analyses. Of these, 18 799 children (5.0%) in the preschool-aged children's cohort experienced an asthmatic event before baseline, and 28 511 cases of asthma and 906 071 years at risk were recorded during follow-up (incidence rate, 3.1 cases per 1000 years at risk). In the school-aged children's cohort, 11 585 children (4.2%) experienced an asthmatic event during the seventh year of life. Dog exposure during the first year of life was associated with a decreased risk of asthma in school-aged children (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.81-0.93) and in preschool-aged children 3 years or older (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99) but not in children younger than 3 years (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07). Results were comparable when analyzing only first-born children. Farm animal exposure was associated with a reduced risk of asthma in both school-aged children and preschool-aged children (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31-0.76, and HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.56-0.84), respectively.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, the data support the hypothesis that exposure to dogs and farm animals during the first year of life reduces the risk of asthma in children at age 6 years. This information might be helpful in decision making for families and physicians on the appropriateness and timing of early animal exposure.
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| 8. |
- Hiyoshi, Ayako, 1972-, et al.
(författare)
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Stress resilience in adolescence and subsequent antidepressant and anxiolytic medication in middle aged men : Swedish cohort study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Social Science and Medicine. - Oxford, United Kingdom : Pergamon-Elsevier. - 0277-9536 .- 1873-5347. ; 134, s. 43-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is unclear whether psychological resilience to stress in adolescence represents a persistent characteristic relevant to the subsequent risk for depression and anxiety in later adulthood. We aimed to test whether low psychological stress resilience assessed in adolescence is associated with an increased risk of receiving medication for depression and anxiety in middle age. We utilized Swedish register-based cohort study. Men born between 1952 and 1956 (n = 175,699), who underwent compulsory assessment for military conscription in late adolescence were followed to examine subsequent risk of pharmaceutically-treated depression and anxiety in middle age, from 2006 to 2009 corresponding to ages between 50 and 58 years, using Cox regression. The associations of stress resilience with prescription of antidepressant and anxiolytics medication through potential mediating factors cognitive and physical function and adult socioeconomic factors were calculated. Low stress resilience was associated with elevated risks for antidepressant (hazard ratio (HR):1.5 (95% CI 1.4 1.6)) and anxiolytics (HR:2.4 (CI 2.0 2.7)) medication. Adjustment for measures of childhood living circumstances attenuated the associations somewhat. Around a third of association with low stress resilience, and a half of that with moderate resilience, was mediated through cognitive and physical function in adolescence and adult socioeconomic factors. The magnitude of the inverse association of higher cognitive function with antidepressant medication was eliminated among those with low stress resilience. These results indicate that low stress resilience in adolescence is associated with an increased risk for antidepressant and anxiolytics medication over 30 years later, in part mediated through developmental factors in adolescence and socioeconomic circumstances in adulthood, and low stress resilience can diminish or eliminate the inverse association of higher cognitive function with antidepressant medication.
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| 9. |
- Kantor, Elizabeth D., et al.
(författare)
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Adolescent body mass index and erythrocyte sedimentation rate in relation to colorectal cancer risk
- 2016
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Ingår i: Gut. - London, United Kingdom : BMJ Publishing Group. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 65:8, s. 1289-1295
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Adult obesity and inflammation have been associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, less is known about how adolescent body mass index (BMI) and inflammation, as measured by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), relate to CRC risk. We sought to evaluate these associations in a cohort of 239 658 Swedish men who underwent compulsory military enlistment examinations in late adolescence (ages 16-20 years).Design: At the time of the conscription assessment (1969-1976), height and weight were measured and ESR was assayed. By linkage to the national cancer registry, these conscripts were followed for CRC through 1 January 2010. Over an average of 35 years of follow-up, 885 cases of CRC occurred, including 501 colon cancers and 384 rectal cancers. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and corresponding 95% CIs.Results: Compared with normal weight (BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2)) in late adolescence, upper overweight (BMI 27.5 to <30 kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.08-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.40 to 3.07) and obesity (BMI 30+ kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.38-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.51 to 3.76) (p-trend: <0.001). Male adolescents with ESR (15+ mm/h) had a 63% higher risk of CRC (HR 1.63; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.45) than those with low ESR (<10 mm/h) (p-trend: 0.006). Associations did not significantly differ by anatomic site.Conclusions: Late-adolescent BMI and inflammation, as measured by ESR, may be independently associated with future CRC risk. Further research is needed to better understand how early-life exposures relate to CRC.
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