| 1. |
- Johansson, Christer, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of air pollution and health by changing commuting from car to bicycle
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 584-585, s. 55-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our study is based on individual data on people’s home and work addresses, as well as their age, sex and physical capacity, in order to establish realistic bicycle-travel distances. A transport model is used to single out data on commuting preferences in the County Stockholm. Our analysis shows there is a very large potential for reducing emissions and exposure if all car drivers living within a distance corresponding to a maximum of a 30 minute bicycle ride to work would change to commuting by bicycle. It would result in more than 111 000 new cyclists, corresponding to an increase of 209% compared to the current situation.Mean population exposure would be reduced by about 7% for both NOx and black carbon (BC) in the most densely populated area of the inner city of Stockholm. Applying a relative risk for NOx of 8% decrease in all-cause mortality associated with a 10 µg m-3 decrease in NOx, this corresponds to more than 449 (95% CI: 340 - 558) years of life saved annually for the Stockholm county area with 2.1 million inhabitants. This is more than double the effect of the reduced mortality estimated for the introduction of congestion charge in Stockholm in 2006. Using NO2 or BC as indicator of health impacts, we obtain 395 (95% CI: 172 - 617) and 185 (95% CI: 158 - 209) years of life saved for the population, respectively. The calculated exposure of BC and its corresponding impacts on mortality are likely underestimated. With this in mind the estimates using NOx, NO2 and BC show quite similar health impacts considering the 95% confidence intervals.
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| 2. |
- Lövenheim, Boel, et al.
(författare)
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Health risk assessment of reduced air pollution exposure when changing commuting by car to bike
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study we have assessed the reduction in traffic emissions and population exposure assuming all potential car commuters would switch to biking if they live within 30 minute travel by bike. The scenario would result in more than 100 000 new bikers and due to the reduced traffic emissions 42 premature deaths would be avoided per year. This is almost twice as large effect as the congestion tax in Stockholm. Introduction Regular physical activity has important and wide-ranging health benefits including reduced risk of chronic disease, and physical inactivity is mentioned as perhaps the most important public health problem of the 21st century. At the same time, the direct effects of traffic emissions is a major health problem. Transferring commuting by car to bike will increase physical activity and reduce emissions and reduce population exposure to traffic pollution. The exposure of commuters will also change; new bikers may get higher exposure whilst old bikers and car drivers may get lower exposures, depending on commuting route and distance. Methodology In this study we have calculated the potential number of car-to-bike switching commuters depending on distance, travel time, age of commuters, etc. We have made calculations for a 30-minute biking scenario, i.e. transferring all car commuters to bike if their travel time by bike is less than or equal to 30 minutes. The commuting distance depends on age and sex. For the travel and traffic modelling the LuTrans model was used. It includes all different modes of travel; walking, bicycling, public transport systems and car traffic. The model was developed based on travel survey data and is regularly calibrated using traffic counts. Emissions from road traffic were calculated based on HBEFA 3.2. A Gaussian dispersion model was used estimate exposures over the county of Stockholm. Results The 30 min scenario resulted in 106 881 more bikers, an increase of 2.6 times compared to base scenario. Of all bikers 50% were men and the mean age of all bikers was 42. The traffic emissions of NOx was reduced by up to 7%. Up to 20% reduction in traffic contribution to NOx concentrations was calculated as shown in Figure 1. The mean reduction in concentration for the whole area is 6% and the largest occur were most people live.The population weighted mean NOx concentration for 1.6 million people in Greater Stockholm is estimated to be reduced by 0.41 μg m-3. Assuming that the premature mortality is reduced by 8% per 10 μg m-3 (Nafstad et al., 2004), this corresponds to 42 avoided premature deaths every year or 514 gained life years gained. This is even somewhat more beneficial than the effects of the congestion charge in Stockholm (Johansson et al., 2009), which was estimated to save 27 premature deaths per year. The gain in reduced mortality is almost as large as the gain in health of the increased physical activity. Conclusions Transferring car commuters to bike is not only beneficial for the physical activity, but will also lead to reduced traffic emissions and reduced population exposure. Our estimates show that it may be even more beneficial for mortality due to air pollution exposure than the congestion charge in Stockholm. Acknowledgement This project was funded by the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working life and Welfare. References Johansson, C., Burman, L., Forsberg, B. 2009. The effects of congestions tax on air quality and health. Atmos. Environ. 43, 4843-4854.Nafstad, P., Lund Håheim, L., Wisloeff, T., Gram, G., Oftedal, B., Holme, I., Hjermann, I. and Leren, P. 2004. Urban Air Pollution and Mortality in a Cohort of Norwegian Men. Environ. Health Perspect. 112, 610-615.
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| 3. |
- Olstrup, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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A Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) Based on Short-Term Respiratory Effects in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, an Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) for Stockholm is introduced as a tool to capture the combined effects associated with multi-pollutant exposure. Public information regarding the expected health risks associated with current or forecasted concentrations of pollutants and pollen can be very useful for sensitive persons when planning their outdoor activities. For interventions, it can also be important to know the contribution from pollen and the specific air pollutants, judged to cause the risk. The AQHI is based on an epidemiological analysis of asthma emergency department visits (AEDV) and urban background concentrations of NOx, O-3, PM10 and birch pollen in Stockholm during 2001-2005. This analysis showed per 10 mu gm(-3) increase in the mean of same day and yesterday an increase in AEDV of 0.5% (95% CI: -1.2-2.2), 0.3% (95% CI: -1.4-2.0) and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.3-4.8) for NOx, O-3 and PM10, respectively. For birch pollen, the AEDV increased with 0.26% (95% CI: 0.18-0.34) for 10 pollen grainsm(-3). In comparison with the coefficients in a meta-analysis, the mean values of the coefficients obtained in Stockholm are smaller. The mean value of the risk increase associated with PM10 is somewhat smaller than the mean value of the meta-coefficient, while for O-3, it is less than one fifth of the meta-coefficient. We have not found any meta-coefficient using NOx as an indicator of AEDV, but compared to the mean value associated with NO2, our value of NOx is less than half as large. The AQHI is expressed as the predicted percentage increase in AEDV without any threshold level. When comparing the relative contribution of each pollutant to the total AQHI, based on monthly averages concentrations during the period 2015-2017, there is a tangible pattern. The AQHI increase associated with NOx exhibits a relatively even distribution throughout the year, but with a clear decrease during the summer months due to less traffic. O-3 contributes to an increase in AQHI during the spring. For PM10, there is a significant increase during early spring associated with increased suspension of road dust. For birch pollen, there is a remarkable peak during the late spring and early summer during the flowering period. Based on monthly averages, the total AQHI during 2015-2017 varies between 4 and 9%, but with a peak value of almost 16% during the birch pollen season in the spring 2016. Based on daily mean values, the most important risk contribution during the study period is from PM10 with 3.1%, followed by O-3 with 2.0%.
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| 4. |
- Olstrup, Henrik, 1978-
(författare)
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Air pollution and health – Indicators, trends and impacts
- 2019
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis focuses on some of the limitations and difficulties that exist when it comes to quantifying the human health effects that arise as a result of air pollution exposure. The following four issues are particularly analysed and discussed: 1) The measurement techniques used for carbonaceous particles and their lack of consistency; 2) Do the health risks associated with exposure to PM10 depend on the content of elemental carbon in the aerosol?; 3) Trends in air pollutants and the health effects that arise as a result of changed exposure to the measured pollutants; 4) The associations between the measured concentrations of different air pollutants in Stockholm and the daily number deaths; 5) Air quality indicators and health outcomes as basis for an air quality health index (AQHI).The method that has been used is largely based on empirical data analysis, where further statistical processing has been used in order to clarify the scientific issues. The overall conclusions are the following: 1) The health impact assessments associated with exposure to carbonaceous particles would benefit from the introduction of a more uniform measurement technique in order to get more consistent and reliable results; 2) The health risks associated with exposure to PM10 are dependent on the content of elemental carbon; 3) The life expectancy increase associated with decreasing NOx trends during 1990–2015 in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo make up as much as about 20 % of the total gain in life expectancy during this period, which clearly shows the beneficial effects related to decreased exposure; 4) The associations between daily mortality and the concentrations of O3 and PM2.5-10 in Stockholm are statistically significant, which does not apply to the exhaust-related pollutants, possibly reflecting behavioural factors affecting the degree of exposure; 5) In comparison with the currently used air quality index (AQI), the air quality health index (AQHI) is a more useful tool in order to address the short-term health effects associated with multi-pollutant exposure to NOx, O3, PM10 and birch pollen.We hope that these findings will be useful from a policy point of view. Introducing a more consistent measurement technique for soot particles would be beneficial in assessing the health effects related to exposure to these particles. The increase in life expectancy associated with decreasing NOx trends shows the benefits from a public health perspective when it comes to introducing emission-reducing measures from traffic. The AQHI would be beneficial to implement in legislation, as it is based on several pollutants, which means that the cumulative health effects associated exposure to several different air pollutants are accounted for.
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| 5. |
- Olstrup, Henrik, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Association between Mortality and Short-Term Exposure to Particles, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, the effects on daily mortality in Stockholm associated with short-term exposure to ultrafine particles (measured as number of particles with a diameter larger than 4 nm, PNC4), black carbon (BC) and coarse particles (PM2.5–10) have been compared with the effects from more common traffic-pollution indicators (PM10, PM2.5 and NO2) and O3 during the period 2000–2016. Air pollution exposure was estimated from measurements at a 20 m high building in central Stockholm. The associations between daily mortality lagged up to two days (lag 02) and the different air pollutants were modelled by using Poisson regression. The pollutants with the strongest indications of an independent effect on daily mortality were O3, PM2.5–10 and PM10. In the single-pollutant model, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in O3 was associated with an increase in daily mortality of 2.0% (95% CI: 1.1–3.0) for lag 01 and 1.9% (95% CI: 1.0–2.9) for lag 02. An IQR increase in PM2.5–10 was associated with an increase in daily mortality of 0.8% (95% CI: 0.1–1.5) for lag 01 and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4–1.8) for lag 02. PM10 was associated with a significant increase only at lag 02, with 0.8% (95% CI: 0.08–1.4) increase in daily mortality associated with an IQR increase in the concentration. NO2 exhibits negative associations with mortality. The significant excess risk associated with O3 remained significant in two-pollutant models after adjustments for PM2.5–10, BC and NO2. The significant excess risk associated with PM2.5–10 remained significant in a two-pollutant model after adjustment for NO2. The significantly negative associations for NO2 remained significant in two-pollutant models after adjustments for PM2.5–10, O3 and BC. A potential reason for these findings, where statistically significant excess risks were found for O3, PM2.5–10 and PM10, but not for NO2, PM2.5, PNC4 and BC, is behavioral factors that lead to misclassification in the exposure. The concentrations of O3 and PM2.5–10 are in general highest during sunny and dry days during the spring, when exposure to outdoor air tend to increase, while the opposite applies to NO2, PNC4 and BC, with the highest concentrations during the short winter days with cold weather, when people are less exposed to outdoor air.
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| 6. |
- Olstrup, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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The Use of Carbonaceous Particle Exposure Metrics in Health Impact Calculations
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 13:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Combustion-related carbonaceous particles seem to be a better indicator of adverse health effects compared to PM2.5 and PM10. Historical studies are based on black smoke (BS), but more recent studies use absorbance (Abs), black carbon (BC) or elemental carbon (EC) as exposure indicators. To estimate health risks based on BS, we review the literature regarding the relationship between Abs, BS, BC and EC. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with the comparison of relative risks (RRs) based on these conversions. EC is reported to represent a proportion between 5.2% and 27% of BS with a mean value of 12%. Correlations of different metrics at one particular site are higher than when different sites are compared. Comparing all traffic, urban and rural sites, there is no systematic site dependence, indicating that other properties of the particles or errors affect the measurements and obscure the results. It is shown that the estimated daily mortality associated with short-term levels of EC is in the same range as PM10, but this is highly dependent on the EC to BS relationship that is used. RRs for all-cause mortality associated with short-term exposure to PM10 seem to be higher at sites with higher EC concentrations, but more data are needed to verify this.
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| 7. |
- Olstrup, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Trends in air pollutants and health impacts in three Swedish cities over the past three decades
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:21, s. 15705-15723
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air pollution concentrations have been decreasing in many cities in the developed countries. We have estimated time trends and health effects associated with exposure to NOx, NO2, O-3, and PM10 (particulate matter) in the Swedish cities Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmo from the 1990s to 2015. Trend analyses of concentrations have been performed by using the Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen method. Measured concentrations are from central monitoring stations representing urban background levels, and they are assumed to indicate changes in long-term exposure to the population. However, corrections for population exposure have been performed for NOx, O-3, and PM10 in Stockholm, and for NOx in Gothenburg. For NOx and PM10, the concentrations at the central monitoring stations are shown to overestimate exposure when compared to dispersion model calculations of spatially resolved, population-weighted exposure concentrations, while the reverse applies to O-3. The trends are very different for the pollutants that are studied; NOx and NO2 have been decreasing in all cities, O-3 exhibits an increasing trend in all cities, and for PM10, there is a slowly decreasing trend in Stockholm, a slowly increasing trend in Gothenburg, and no significant trend in Malmo. Trends associated with NOx and NO2 are mainly attributed to local emis-sion reductions from traffic. Long-range transport and local emissions from road traffic (non-exhaust PM emissions) and residential wood combustion are the main sources of PM10. For O-3, the trends are affected by long-range transport, and there is a net removal of O-3 in the cities. The increasing trends are attributed to decreased net removal, as NOx emissions have been reduced. Health effects in terms of changes in life expectancy are calculated based on the trends in exposure to NOx, NO2, O-3, and PM10 and the relative risks associated with exposure to these pollutants. The decreased levels of NO x are estimated to increase the life expectancy by up to 11 months for Stockholm and 12 months for Gothenburg. This corresponds to up to one-fifth of the total increase in life expectancy (5470 months) in the cities during the period of 1990-2015. Since the increased concentrations in O-3 have a relatively small impact on the changes in life expectancy, the overall net effect is increased life expectancies in the cities that have been studied.
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| 8. |
- Orru, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Potential health impacts of changes in air pollution exposure associated with moving traffic into a road tunnel
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1559-0631 .- 1559-064X. ; 25:5, s. 524-531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A planned 21 km bypass (18 km within a tunnel) in Stockholm is expected to reduce ambient air exposure to traffic emissions, but same time tunnel users could be exposed to high concentrations of pollutants. For the health impacts calculations in 2030, the change in annual ambient NOX and PM10 exposure of the general population was modelled in 100 x 100 m(2) grids for Greater Stockholm area. The tunnel exposure was estimated based on calculated annual average NOX concentrations, time spent in tunnel and number of tunnel users. For the general population, we estimate annually 23.7 (95% Cl: 17.7-32.3) fewer premature deaths as ambient concentrations are reduced. At the same time, tunnel users will be exposed to NOX levels up to 2000 mu g/m(-3). Passing through the whole tunnel two times on working days would correspond to an additional annual NOX exposure of 9.6 mu g/m(3). Assuming that there will be similar to 55,000 vehicles daily each way and 1.3 persons of 30-74 years of age in each vehicle, we estimate the tunnel exposure to result in 20.6 (95% Cl: 14.1-25.6) premature deaths annually. If there were more persons per vehicle, or older and vulnerable people travelling, or tunnel dispersion conditions worsen, the adverse effect would become larger.
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| 9. |
- Raza, Wasif, et al.
(författare)
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Air pollution as a risk factor in health impact assessments of a travel mode shift towards cycling
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 11:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Promotion of active commuting provides substantial health and environmental benefits by influencing air pollution, physical activity, accidents, and noise. However, studies evaluating intervention and policies on a mode shift from motorized transport to cycling have estimated health impacts with varying validity and precision. Objective: To review and discuss the estimation of air pollution exposure and its impacts in health impact assessment studies of a shift in transport from cars to bicycles in order to guide future assessments. Methods: A systematic database search of PubMed was done primarily for articles published from January 2000 to May 2016 according to PRISMA guidelines. Results: We identified 18 studies of health impact assessment of change in transport mode. Most studies investigated future hypothetical scenarios of increased cycling. The impact on the general population was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach in the majority of these studies, whereas some used previously published cost estimates. Air pollution exposure during cycling was estimated based on the ventilation rate, the pollutant concentration, and the trip duration. Most studies employed exposure-response functions from studies comparing background levels of fine particles between cities to estimate the health impacts of local traffic emissions. The effect of air pollution associated with increased cycling contributed small health benefits for the general population, and also only slightly increased risks associated with fine particle exposure among those who shifted to cycling. However, studies calculating health impacts based on exposure-response functions for ozone, black carbon or nitrogen oxides found larger effects attributed to changes in air pollution exposure. Conclusion: A large discrepancy between studies was observed due to different health impact assessment approaches, different assumptions for calculation of inhaled dose and different selection of dose-response functions. This kind of assessments would improve from more holistic approaches using more specific exposure- response functions.
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| 10. |
- Segersson, David, et al.
(författare)
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Health Impact of PM10, PM2.5 and Black Carbon Exposure Due to Different Source Sectors in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Umea, Sweden
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 14:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most important anthropogenic sources of primary particulate matter (PM) in ambient air in Europe are exhaust and non-exhaust emissions from road traffic and combustion of solid biomass. There is convincing evidence that PM, almost regardless of source, has detrimental health effects. An important issue in health impact assessments is what metric, indicator and exposure-response function to use for different types of PM. The aim of this study is to describe sectorial contributions to PM exposure and related premature mortality for three Swedish cities: Gothenburg, Stockholm and Umea. Exposure is calculated with high spatial resolution using atmospheric dispersion models. Attributed premature mortality is calculated separately for the main local sources and the contribution from long-range transport (LRT), applying different relative risks. In general, the main part of the exposure is due to LRT, while for black carbon, the local sources are equally or more important. The major part of the premature deaths is in our assessment related to local emissions, with road traffic and residential wood combustion having the largest impact. This emphasizes the importance to resolve within-city concentration gradients when assessing exposure. It also implies that control actions on local PM emissions have a strong potential in abatement strategies.
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