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- Gårdmark, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources
- 2013
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Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 23:4, s. 742-754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.
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- Holmberg, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Number of transurethral procedures after non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer and survival in causes other than bladder cancer
- 2022
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 17:9 September
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Previous research has associated repeated transurethral procedures after a diagnosis of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) with increased risk of death of causes other than bladder cancer. Aim We investigated the overall and disease-specific risk of death in patients with NMIBC compared to a background population sample. Methods We utilized the database BladderBaSe 2.0 containing tumor-specific, health-related and socio-demographic information for 38,547 patients with NMIBC not primarily treated with radical cystectomy and 192,733 individuals in a comparison cohort, matched on age, gender, and county of residence. The cohorts were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Hazard ratios (HR) from a Cox regression models. In the NMIBC cohort, we analyzed the association between number of transurethral procedures and death conditioned on surviving two or five years. Results Overall survival and survival from causes other than bladder cancer estimated with Kaplan- Meier curves was 9.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) (8.6%-10.0%)) and 1.4% (95% CI 0.7%-2.1%) lower respectively for the NMIBC cohort compared to the comparison cohort at ten years. In a Cox model adjusted for prognostic group, educational level and comorbidity, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI 1.01-1.05) for death from causes other than bladder cancer comparing the NMIBC cohort to the comparison cohort. Among the NMIBC patients, there was no discernible association between number of transurethral procedures and deaths of causes other than bladder cancer after adjustment. The number of procedures were, however, associated with risk of dying from bladder cancer HR 3.56 (95% CI 3.43-3.68) for four or more resections versus one within two years of follow-up. Conclusion The results indicate that repeated diagnostic or therapeutic transurethral procedures under follow-up do not increase of risk dying from causes other than bladder cancer. The modestly raised risk for NMIBC patients dying from causes other than bladder cancer is likely explained by residual confounding. © 2022 Holmberg et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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| 4. |
- Malmström, Per-Uno, et al.
(författare)
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Incidence, survival and mortality trends of bladder cancer in Sweden 1997–2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Urology. - : Medical Journals Sweden AB. - 2168-1805 .- 2168-1813. ; 53:4, s. 193-199
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To evaluate trends in bladder cancer incidence, survival and mortality in Sweden from 1997–2016. Patients and methods: The Swedish National Registry of Urinary Bladder Cancer is a nation-wide quality register that started in 1997. It includes information on initial tumor characteristics and treatment; 41,097 new cases were registered up to 2016. Patients were stratified into four time periods. Deaths were monitored through the national death register. Overall and relative survival in time periods were studied with respect to differences in stage, age and gender. Results: The number of new cases increased by 38% for men and 39% for women from 1997 to 2016. The corresponding age-standardized incidence per 100,000 was less dramatic, with increases of 6% and 21%, respectively, and the increase was most evident in the oldest age group. The survival rate was stable until 2012, but thereafter a significant improvement occurred. The survival trends in stage-groups show that this improvement is found in all categories as well as irrespective of age and gender. The mortality rate during this period was stable for women, but showed a slight decrease for men. The main limitation of this study is the use of administrative data for defining some of the endpoints. Conclusion: The most recent Swedish bladder cancer statistics show an increased incidence, improved survival, but stable mortality. © 2019, © 2019 Acta Chirurgica Scandinavica Society.
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- Olsson, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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Temporal development of coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea over the past two decades
- 2015
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Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1054-3139 .- 1095-9289. ; 72:9, s. 2539-2548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal areas are among the most biologically productive aquatic systems worldwide, but face strong and variable anthropogenic pressures. Few studies have, however, addressed the temporal development of coastal ecosystems in an integrated context. This study represents an assessment of the development over time in 13 coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea region during the past two decades. The study covers between two to six trophic levels per system and time-series dating back to the early 1990s. We applied multivariate analyses to assess the temporal development of biological ecosystem components and relate these to potential driving variables associated with changes in climate, hydrology, nutrient status, and fishing pressure. Our results show that structural change often occurred with similar timing in the assessed coastal systems. Moreover, in 10 of the 13 systems, a directional development of the ecosystem components was observed. The variables representing key ecosystem components generally differed across systems, due to natural differences and limitation to available data. As a result of this, the correlation between the temporal development of the biological components in each area and the driving variables assessed was to some extent area-specific. However, change in nutrient status was a common denominator of the variables most often associated with changes in the assessed systems. Our results, additionally, indicate existing strengths as well as future challenges in the capacity of currently available monitoring data to support integrated assessments and the implementation of an integrated ecosystem-based approach to the management of the Baltic Sea coastal ecosystems.
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| 6. |
- Russell, Beth, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic review of the association between socioeconomic status and bladder cancer survival with hospital type, comorbidities, and treatment delay as mediators
- 2021
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Ingår i: BJUI Compass. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2688-4526. ; 2:3, s. 140-158
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectivesTo review the current evidence on the relationship between three proposed mediators (comorbidities, hospital type, and treatment delays) for the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and bladder cancer survival.Materials and methodsSix different searches using OVID (Medline and Embase) were carried out to collate information available between the proposed mediators with both SES and survival in bladder cancer. This systematic review was conducted according to a pre-defined protocol and in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.ResultsA total of 49 studies were included in the review across the six searches (one appeared in two searches). There was a wealth of studies investigating the relationship between each of the proposed mediators with survival in bladder cancer patients. In general, a higher SES, lower comorbidities, and a larger hospital volume were all found to be associated with a decreased risk of death in bladder cancer patients. There was, however, a paucity of studies investigating the associations between these mediators and SES in bladder cancer patients.ConclusionsTo gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between SES and survival identified in several observational studies, further investigations into the relationship between the proposed mediators and SES are warranted. Moreover, modifiable mediators, eg, treatment delay, highlight the importance of the standardization of clinical care across SES groups for all bladder cancer patients.
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