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  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1659-1724
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
  • Antoniou, A. C., et al. (författare)
  • Common variants in LSP1, 2q35 and 8q24 and breast cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - [Antoniou, Antonis C.; McGuffog, Lesley; Peock, Susan; Cook, Margaret; Frost, Debra; Oliver, Clare; Platte, Radka; Pooley, Karen A.; Easton, Douglas F.] Univ Cambridge, Dept Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Canc Res UK Genet Epidemiol Unit, Cambridge, England. [Sinilnikova, Olga M.; Leone, Melanie] Univ Lyon, CNRS, Hosp Civils Lyon,Ctr Leon Berard,UMR5201, Unite Mixte Genet Constitut Canc Frequents, Lyon, France. [Healey, Sue; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Beesley, Jonathan; Chen, Xiaoqing; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia] Queensland Inst Med Res, Brisbane, Qld 4029, Australia. [Nevanlinna, Heli; Heikkinen, Tuomas] Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Obstet & Gynecol, FIN-00290 Helsinki, Finland. [Simard, Jacques] Univ Laval, Quebec City, PQ, Canada. [Simard, Jacques] Univ Quebec, Ctr Hosp, Canada Res Chair Oncogenet, Canc Genom Lab, Quebec City, PQ, Canada. Peter MacCallum Canc Inst, Melbourne, Vic 3002, Australia. [Neuhausen, Susan L.; Ding, Yuan C.] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Epidemiol, Irvine, CA USA. [Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Fredericksen, Zachary] Mayo Clin, Rochester, MN USA. [Peterlongo, Paolo; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo] Fdn IRCCS Ist Nazl Tumori, Milan, Italy. [Peterlongo, Paolo; Radice, Paolo] Fdn Ist FIRC Oncol Molecolare, Milan, Italy. [Bonanni, Bernardo; Bernard, Loris] Ist Europeo Oncol, Milan, Italy. [Viel, Alessandra] IRCCS, Ctr Riferimento Oncol, Aviano, Italy. [Bernard, Loris] Cogentech, Consortium Genom Technol, Milan, Italy. [Szabo, Csilla I.] Mayo Clin, Coll Med, Dept Lab Med & Pathol, Rochester, MN USA. [Foretova, Lenka] Masaryk Mem Canc Inst, Dept Canc Epidemiol & Genet, Brno, Czech Republic. [Zikan, Michal] Charles Univ Prague, Dept Biochem & Expt Oncol, Fac Med 1, Prague, Czech Republic. [Claes, Kathleen] Ghent Univ Hosp, Ctr Med Genet, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium. [Greene, Mark H.; Mai, Phuong L.] US Natl Canc Inst, Clin Genet Branch, Rockville, MD USA. [Rennert, Gad; Lejbkowicz, Flavio] CHS Natl Canc Control Ctr, Haifa, Israel. [Rennert, Gad; Lejbkowicz, Flavio] Carmel Hosp, Dept Community Med & Epidemiol, Haifa, Israel. [Rennert, Gad; Lejbkowicz, Flavio] B Rappaport Fac Med, Haifa, Israel. [Andrulis, Irene L.; Glendon, Gord] Canc Care Ontario, Ontario Canc Genet Network, Toronto, ON M5G 2L7, Canada. [Andrulis, Irene L.] Mt Sinai Hosp, Fred A Litwin Ctr Canc Genet, Samuel Lunenfeld Res Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada. [Andrulis, Irene L.] Univ Toronto, Dept Mol Genet, Toronto, ON, Canada. [Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Thomassen, Mads] Odense Univ Hosp, Dept Biochem Pharmacol & Genet, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark. [Sunde, Lone] Aarhus Univ Hosp, Dept Clin Genet, DK-8000 Aarhus, Denmark. [Caligo, Maria A.] Univ Pisa, Div Surg Mol & Ultrastructural Pathol, Dept Oncol, Pisa, Italy. [Caligo, Maria A.] Pisa Univ Hosp, Pisa, Italy. [Laitman, Yael; Kontorovich, Tair; Cohen, Shimrit; Friedman, Eitan] Chaim Sheba Med Ctr, Susanne Levy Gertner Oncogenet Unit, IL-52621 Tel Hashomer, Israel. [Kaufman, Bella] Chaim Sheba Med Ctr, Inst Oncol, IL-52621 Tel Hashomer, Israel. [Kaufman, Bella; Friedman, Eitan] Tel Aviv Univ, Sackler Sch Med, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel. [Dagan, Efrat; Baruch, Ruth Gershoni] Rambam Med Ctr, Genet Inst, Haifa, Israel. [Harbst, Katja] Lund Univ, Dept Oncol, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. [Barbany-Bustinza, Gisela; Rantala, Johanna] Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Clin Genet, Stockholm, Sweden. [Ehrencrona, Hans] Uppsala Univ, Dept Genet & Pathol, Uppsala, Sweden. [Karlsson, Per] Sahlgrenska Univ, Dept Oncol, Gothenburg, Sweden. [Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.] Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. [Osorio, Ana; Benitez, Javier] Ctr Invest Biomed Red Enfermedades Raras CIBERERE, Inst Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. [Osorio, Ana; Benitez, Javier] Spanish Natl Canc Ctr CNIO, Human Canc Genet Programme, Human Genet Grp, Madrid, Spain. [Blanco, Ignacio] Catalan Inst Oncol ICO, Canc Genet Counseling Program, Barcelona, Spain. [Lasa, Adriana] Hosp Santa Creu & Sant Pau, Genet Serv, Barcelona, Spain. [Hamann, Ute] Deutsch Krebsforschungszentrum, Neuenheimer Feld 580 69120, D-6900 Heidelberg, Germany. [Hogervorst, Frans B. L.] Netherlands Canc Inst, Dept Pathol, Family Canc Clin, NL-1066 CX Amsterdam, Netherlands. [Rookus, Matti A.] Netherlands Canc Inst, Dept Epidemiol, Amsterdam, Netherlands. [Collee, J. Margriet] Erasmus Univ, Dept Clin Genet, Rotterdam Family Canc Clin, Med Ctr, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. [Devilee, Peter] Dept Genet Epidemiol, Leiden, Netherlands. [Wijnen, Juul] Leiden Univ, Med Ctr, Ctr Human & Clin Genet, Leiden, Netherlands. [Ligtenberg, Marjolijn J.] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Med Ctr, Dept Human Genet, NL-6525 ED Nijmegen, Netherlands. [van der Luijt, Rob B.] Univ Utrecht, Med Ctr, Dept Clin Mol Genet, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. [Aalfs, Cora M.] Univ Amsterdam, Acad Med Ctr, Dept Clin Genet, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. [Waisfisz, Quinten] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Med Ctr, Dept Clin Genet, Amsterdam, Netherlands. [van Roozendaal, Cornelis E. P.] Univ Med Ctr, Dept Clin Genet, Maastricht, Netherlands. [Evans, D. Gareth; Lalloo, Fiona] Cent Manchester Univ Hosp, NHS Fdn Trust, Manchester Acad Hlth Sci Ctr, Manchester, Lancs, England. [Eeles, Rosalind] Inst Canc Res, Translat Canc Genet Team, London SW3 6JB, England. [Eeles, Rosalind] Royal Marsden NHS Fdn Trust, London, England. [Izatt, Louise] Guys Hosp, Clin Genet, London SE1 9RT, England. [Davidson, Rosemarie] Ferguson Smith Ctr Clin Genet, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland. [Chu, Carol] Yorkshire Reg Genet Serv, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England. [Eccles, Diana] Princess Anne Hosp, Wessex Clin Genet Serv, Southampton, Hants, England. [Cole, Trevor] Birmingham Womens Hosp Healthcare, NHS Trust, W Midlands Reg Genet Serv, Birmingham, W Midlands, England. [Hodgson, Shirley] Univ London, Dept Canc Genet, St Georges Hosp, London, England. [Godwin, Andrew K.; Daly, Mary B.] Fox Chase Canc Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19111 USA. [Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique] Univ Paris 05, Paris, France. [Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique] Inst Curie, INSERM U509, Serv Genet Oncol, Paris, France. [Buecher, Bruno] Inst Curie, Dept Genet, Paris, France. [Bressac-de Paillerets, Brigitte; Remenieras, Audrey; Lenoir, Gilbert M.] Inst Cancrol Gustave Roussy, Dept Genet, Villejuif, France. [Bressac-de Paillerets, Brigitte] Inst Cancerol Gustave Roussy, INSERM U946, Villejuif, France. [Caron, Olivier] Inst Cancerol Gustave Roussy, Dept Med, Villejuif, France. [Lenoir, Gilbert M.] Inst Cancerol Gustave Roussy, CNRS FRE2939, Villejuif, France. [Sevenet, Nicolas; Longy, Michel] Inst Bergonie, Lab Genet Constitutionnelle, Bordeaux, France. [Longy, Michel] Inst Bergonie, INSERM U916, Bordeaux, France. [Ferrer, Sandra Fert] Hop Hotel Dieu, Ctr Hosp, Lab Genet Chromosom, Chambery, France. [Prieur, Fabienne] CHU St Etienne, Serv Genet Clin Chromosom, St Etienne, France. [Goldgar, David] Univ Utah, Dept Dermatol, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA. [Miron, Alexander; Yassin, Yosuf] Dana Farber Canc Inst, Boston, MA 02115 USA. [John, Esther M.] No Calif Canc Ctr, Fremont, CA USA. [John, Esther M.] Stanford Univ, Sch Med, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. [Buys, Saundra S.] Univ Utah, Hlth Sci Ctr, Huntsman Canc Inst, Salt Lake City, UT USA. [Hopper, John L.] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia. [Terry, Mary Beth] Columbia Univ, New York, NY USA. [Singer, Christian; Gschwantler-Kaulich, Daphne; Staudigl, Christine] Med Univ Vienna, Div Special Gynecol, Dept OB GYN, Vienna, Austria. [Hansen, Thomas V. O.] Univ Copenhagen, Rigshosp, Dept Clin Biochem, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. [Barkardottir, Rosa Bjork] Landspitali Univ Hosp, Dept Pathol, Reykjavik, Iceland. [Kirchhoff, Tomas; Pal, Prodipto; Kosarin, Kristi; Offit, Kenneth] Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, Dept Med, Clin Genet Serv, New York, NY 10021 USA. [Piedmonte, Marion] Roswell Pk Canc Inst, GOG Stat & Data Ctr, Buffalo, NY 14263 USA. [Rodriguez, Gustavo C.] Evanston NW Healthcare, NorthShore Univ Hlth Syst, Evanston, IL 60201 USA. [Wakeley, Katie] Tufts Univ, New England Med Ctr, Boston, MA 02111 USA. [Boggess, John F.] Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. [Basil, Jack] St Elizabeth Hosp, Edgewood, KY 41017 USA. [Schwartz, Peter E.] Yale Univ, Sch Med, New Haven, CT 06510 USA. [Blank, Stephanie V.] New York Univ, Sch Med, New York, NY 10016 USA. [Toland, Amanda E.] Ohio State Univ, Dept Internal Med, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. [Toland, Amanda E.] Ohio State Univ, Div Human Canc Genet, Ctr Comprehens Canc, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. [Montagna, Marco; Casella, Cinzia] IRCCS, Ist Oncologico Veneto, Immunol & Mol Oncol Unit, Padua, Italy. [Imyanitov, Evgeny N.] NN Petrov Inst Res Inst, St Petersburg, Russia. [Allavena, Anna] Univ Turin, Dept Genet Biol & Biochem, Turin, Italy. [Schmutzler, Rita K.; Versmold, Beatrix; Arnold, Norbert] Univ Cologne, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Div Mol Gynaeco Oncol, Cologne, Germany. [Engel, Christoph] Univ Leipzig, Inst Med Informat Stat & Epidemiol, Leipzig, Germany. [Meindl, Alfons] Tech Univ Munich, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Munich, Germany. [Ditsch, Nina] Univ Munich, Dept Obstet & Gynecol, Munich, Germany. Univ Schleswig Holstein, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Campus Kiel, Germany. [Niederacher, Dieter] Univ Duesseldorf, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Mol Genet Lab, Dusseldorf, Germany. [Deissler, Helmut] Univ Ulm, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Ulm, Germany. [Fiebig, Britta] Univ Regensburg, Inst Human Genet, Regensburg, Germany. [Suttner, Christian] Univ Heidelberg, Inst Human Genet, Heidelberg, Germany. [Schoenbuchner, Ines] Univ Wurzburg, Inst Human Genet, D-8700 Wurzburg, Germany. [Gadzicki, Dorothea] Med Univ, Inst Cellular & Mol Pathol, Hannover, Germany. [Caldes, Trinidad; de la Hoya, Miguel] Hosp Clinico San Carlos 28040, Madrid, Spain. : Oxford University Press. - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 18:22, s. 4442-4456
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies of breast cancer have identified multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with increased breast cancer risks in the general population. In a previous study, we demonstrated that the minor alleles at three of these SNPs, in FGFR2, TNRC9 and MAP3K1, also confer increased risks of breast cancer for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. Three additional SNPs rs3817198 at LSP1, rs13387042 at 2q35 and rs13281615 at 8q24 have since been reported to be associated with breast cancer in the general population, and in this study we evaluated their association with breast cancer risk in 9442 BRCA1 and 5665 BRCA2 mutation carriers from 33 study centres. The minor allele of rs3817198 was associated with increased breast cancer risk only for BRCA2 mutation carriers [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.25, P-trend = 2.8 × 10-4]. The best fit for the association of SNP rs13387042 at 2q35 with breast cancer risk was a dominant model for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers (BRCA1: HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25, P = 0.0047; BRCA2: HR = 1.18 95% CI: 1.04-1.33, P = 0.0079). SNP rs13281615 at 8q24 was not associated with breast cancer for either BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, but the estimated association for BRCA2 mutation carriers (per-allele HR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.14) was consistent with odds ratio estimates derived from population-based case-control studies. The LSP1 and 2q35 SNPs appear to interact multiplicatively on breast cancer risk for BRCA2 mutation carriers. There was no evidence that the associations vary by mutation type depending on whether the mutated protein is predicted to be stable or not. 
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1545-1602
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.
  • Antoniou, A. C., et al. (författare)
  • Common breast cancer susceptibility alleles and the risk of breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers : Implications for risk prediction
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Cancer Research. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 70:23, s. 9742-9754
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The known breast cancer susceptibility polymorphisms in FGFR2, TNRC9/TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, and 2q35 confer increased risks of breast cancer for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. We evaluated the associations of 3 additional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs4973768 in SLC4A7/NEK10, rs6504950 in STXBP4/COX11, and rs10941679 at 5p12, and reanalyzed the previous associations using additional carriers in a sample of 12,525 BRCA1 and 7,409 BRCA2 carriers. Additionally, we investigated potential interactions between SNPs and assessed the implications for risk prediction. The minor alleles of rs4973768 and rs10941679 were associated with increased breast cancer risk for BRCA2 carriers (per-allele HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.18, P = 0.006 and HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.19, P = 0.03, respectively). Neither SNP was associated with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers, and rs6504950 was not associated with breast cancer for either BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers. Of the 9 polymorphisms investigated, 7 were associated with breast cancer for BRCA2 carriers (FGFR2, TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, 2q35, SLC4A7, 5p12, P = 7 × 10-11 - 0.03), but only TOX3 and 2q35 were associated with the risk for BRCA1 carriers (P = 0.0049, 0.03, respectively). All risk-associated polymorphisms appear to interact multiplicatively on breast cancer risk for mutation carriers. Based on the joint genotype distribution of the 7 risk-associated SNPs in BRCA2 mutation carriers, the 5% of BRCA2 carriers at highest risk (i.e., between 95th and 100th percentiles) were predicted to have a probability between 80% and 96% of developing breast cancer by age 80, compared with 42% to 50% for the 5% of carriers at lowest risk. Our findings indicated that these risk differences might be sufficient to influence the clinical management of mutation carriers.
  • Engel, Christoph, et al. (författare)
  • Association of the variants CASP8 D302H and CASP10 V410I with breast and ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1538-7755 .- 1055-9965. ; 19:11, s. 2859-68
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The genes caspase-8 (CASP8) and caspase-10 (CASP10) functionally cooperate and play a key role in the initiation of apoptosis. Suppression of apoptosis is one of the major mechanisms underlying the origin and progression of cancer. Previous case-control studies have indicated that the polymorphisms CASP8 D302H and CASP10 V410I are associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in the general population.
  • Johnatty, S. E., et al. (författare)
  • No evidence that GATA3 rs570613 SNP modifies breast cancer risk
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. - : Springer. - 0167-6806 .- 1573-7217. ; 117:2, s. 371-379
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • GATA-binding protein 3 (GATA3) is a transcription factor that is crucial to mammary gland morphogenesis and differentiation of progenitor cells, and has been suggested to have a tumor suppressor function. The rs570613 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in intron 4 of GATA3 was previously found to be associated with a reduction in breast cancer risk in the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility project and in pooled analysis of two case-control studies from Norway and Poland (P trend = 0.004), with some evidence for a stronger association with estrogen receptor (ER) negative tumours [Garcia-Closas M et al. (2007) Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 16:2269-2275]. We genotyped GATA3 rs570613 in 6,388 cases and 4,995 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 5,617 BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). We found no association between this SNP and breast cancer risk in BCAC cases overall (ORper-allele = 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.05), in ER negative BCAC cases (ORper-allele = 1.02, 95% CI 0.91-1.13), in BRCA1 mutation carriers RRper-allele = 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.09) or BRCA2 mutation carriers (RRper-allele = 0.93, 95% CI 0.80-1.07). We conclude that there is no evidence that either GATA3 rs570613, or any variant in strong linkage disequilibrium with it, is associated with breast cancer risk in women. 
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