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Sökning: WFRF:(Golub Malgorzata)

  • Resultat 1-5 av 5
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1.
  • Grant, Luke, et al. (författare)
  • Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Nature. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:11, s. 849-854
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.
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2.
  • Guo, Mingyang, et al. (författare)
  • Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Water resources research. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 57:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here, we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake data set provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, an optimal algorithm is decided for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require separate consideration. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.
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3.
  • Guo, Mingyang, et al. (författare)
  • Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 126:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. Here, we assessed the performance of a 1‐D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSE) were below 2°C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full‐profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71°C and 1.43°C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine‐learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind‐driven mixing, and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high‐latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind‐driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with lake depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1‐D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.
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4.
  • Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al. (författare)
  • Lake heatwaves under climate change
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : NATURE RESEARCH. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 589:7842, s. 402-407
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change(1-5), including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes(6). However, very little is known about lake heatwaves-periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature-and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 +/- 0.1 to 5.4 +/- 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 +/- 0.4 to 95.5 +/- 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 +/- 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 +/- 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century(7,8), their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity(9) and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society.
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5.
  • Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al. (författare)
  • Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE RESEARCH. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 12:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 +/- 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 +/- 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 +/- 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
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  • Resultat 1-5 av 5

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